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Election 1896: The Statistics Messages in this topic - RSS

Absintheuse
Absintheuse
Moderator
Posts: 348

7/13/2018
For anyone wondering, here's our blog about the statistics from this year's glorious Election! Each year reveals some wonderfully interesting data, delicious friends. We're sure the Jovial Contrarian thanks you for your many efforts!
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Jolanda Swan
Jolanda Swan
Posts: 1686

7/13/2018
Ah, not ominous at all...

--
Lover of all things beautiful, secret admirer of ugly truths, fond of the Parabola Sun... and always delighted to role play.
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Dudebro Pyro
Dudebro Pyro
Posts: 727

7/13/2018
How about the percentage of big-hitters (with significant career and notability) across each candidate? I remember a very interesting data point two years ago was that the Bishop actually polled pretty well among the high-impact voters, but did abysmally with the (far, far more numerous) lower level voting base (presumably mostly consisting of non-forum-goers), with Jenny being the other way around - not to the point of changing the result of the election, but definitely enough to soften the margins.

I found it to be perhaps the most interesting data point; shame it's not in this year's analysis.

EDIT: I went back and checked the older blog posts, and indeed the Bishop - who walked away with 10% of the total vote - had 18% instead when only considering Career 20 voters. Unlike my memory, Jenny virtually didn't change (55% to 56%) - it was the Contrarian who relied on the "popular vote". Meanwhile in 1895, the result was even more striking, with the Detective actually carrying away 50% of the vote among the maxed-out voters (perhaps because the graph was over a narrower dataset - only considering max contributors, meaning requiring Notability 15, which is much harder than simply maxing out career and thus can be expected to be much less representative of the total playerbase, but also is a bit less interesting because it's reminiscent of the trends from forum polls.).
edited by Dudebro Pyro on 7/13/2018

--
Dudebro Pyro, eccentric scholar

Spare Starveling Kitties always welcome. I collect them.
For that matter, send me your unwanted cat boxes too.
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Anne Auclair
Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215

7/15/2018
Nice to see more people trying the campaigners. Though I wonder if a number of selections were made with an eye on the donation game from last year...

Haley wrote:
It was quite the turnaround from the Election of 1894, where the Jovial Contrarian lost to Sinning Jenny with only 35% of the vote (compared to her 55%).

I'd say getting 35% against Jenny was an extremely impressive showing.

It's also the fourth highest percentage so far received in an election.

Jenny: 55%
Contrarian: 48%
Feducci: 45% (he certainly hates this)
Contrarian: 35%
Detective: 33%
Princess: 29%
Mr. Slowcake: 23%
Campaigner: 21%
Bishop: 10%

And notably, the Contrarian was the only losing candidate to get above the minimum percentage needed to cleanly win an equally divided three way race - 34%

The Contrarian is a pretty good politician.

--
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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Cooper
Cooper
Posts: 61

7/16/2018
Anne Auclair wrote:
The Contrarian is a pretty good politician.


No he isn't.

He'd be the first to tell you that if you said it to him.

--
Padraig Cooper,
Remorseful Opportunist. https://www.fallenlondon.com/profile/Padraig%20Cooper
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Anne Auclair
Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215

7/16/2018
Cooper wrote:
Anne Auclair wrote:
The Contrarian is a pretty good politician.


No he isn't.

He'd be the first to tell you that if you said it to him.

The fact he would likely win that argument is the ultimate proof of his political skills, QED :P

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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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Diptych
Diptych
Administrator
Posts: 3447

7/16/2018
Cooper wrote:

No he isn't.



Yes he is.

--
Sir Frederick, the Libertarian Esotericist. Lord Hubris, the Bloody Baron.
Juniper Brown, the Ill-Fated Orphan. Esther Ellis-Hall, the Fashionable Fabian.
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Lady Sapho Byron
Lady Sapho Byron
Posts: 763

7/16/2018
Sir Frederick wrote:
Cooper wrote:

No he isn't.



Yes he is.


This isn't an argument.

--
http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/Lady%20Sapho%20L%20Byron
Fighting the Menace of Corsetry Since 1892.
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Jolanda Swan
Jolanda Swan
Posts: 1686

7/16/2018
Yes, please make our mayor proud by elaborating. No revolutionary favors for you otherwise!

--
Lover of all things beautiful, secret admirer of ugly truths, fond of the Parabola Sun... and always delighted to role play.
http://fallenlondon.com/profile/Jolanda%20Swan
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Lady Sapho Byron
Lady Sapho Byron
Posts: 763

7/16/2018
Jolanda Swan wrote:
Yes, please make our mayor proud by elaborating. No revolutionary favors for you otherwise!


An argument is a connected series of statements intended to establish a definite proposition.

--
http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/Lady%20Sapho%20L%20Byron
Fighting the Menace of Corsetry Since 1892.
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Catherine Raymond
Catherine Raymond
Posts: 2433

7/16/2018
Lady Sapho Byron wrote:
Sir Frederick wrote:
Cooper wrote:

No he isn't.



Yes he is.


This isn't an argument.


Indeed it's not an argument. As Monty Ptython said, it's simply contradiction.

--
Cathy Raymond
http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/cathyr19355

Catherine Raymond aka Mrs. Rykar Malkus http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Catherine%20Raymond (Gone NORTH)
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Cooper
Cooper
Posts: 61

7/16/2018
Catherine Raymond wrote:
Lady Sapho Byron wrote:
Sir Frederick wrote:
Cooper wrote:

No he isn't.



Yes he is.


This isn't an argument.


Indeed it's not an argument. As Monty Ptython said, it's simply contradiction.

No it isn't.

--
Padraig Cooper,
Remorseful Opportunist. https://www.fallenlondon.com/profile/Padraig%20Cooper
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Anne Auclair
Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215

7/16/2018
Cooper wrote:
Catherine Raymond wrote:
Lady Sapho Byron wrote:
Sir Frederick wrote:
Cooper wrote:

No he isn't.



Yes he is.


This isn't an argument.


Indeed it's not an argument. As Monty Ptython said, it's simply contradiction.

No it isn't.

Yes it is!

--
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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Azothi
Azothi
Posts: 561

7/16/2018
Anne Auclair wrote:
Cooper wrote:
Catherine Raymond wrote:
Lady Sapho Byron wrote:
Sir Frederick wrote:
Cooper wrote:

No he isn't.



Yes he is.


This isn't an argument.


Indeed it's not an argument. As Monty Ptython said, it's simply contradiction.

No it isn't.

Yes it is!
No it isn't! Argument is an intellectual process. Contradiction is just the automatic gainsaying of any statement the other person makes.

--
Azoth I, the Emissary of Cardinals - A Paramount Presence (not currently accepting new Proteges)
Away to where the Chain cannot bind us.
Hesperidean.
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Anne Auclair
Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215

7/16/2018
Azothi wrote:
Anne Auclair wrote:
Cooper wrote:
Catherine Raymond wrote:
Lady Sapho Byron wrote:
Sir Frederick wrote:
Cooper wrote:

No he isn't.



Yes he is.


This isn't an argument.


Indeed it's not an argument. As Monty Ptython said, it's simply contradiction.

No it isn't.

Yes it is!
No it isn't! Argument is an intellectual process. Contradiction is just the automatic gainsaying of any statement the other person makes.

No it isn't.

--
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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Cooper
Cooper
Posts: 61

7/16/2018
I feel the Contrarian is already leading us down a dark road...

--
Padraig Cooper,
Remorseful Opportunist. https://www.fallenlondon.com/profile/Padraig%20Cooper
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Anne Auclair
Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215

7/17/2018
Cooper wrote:
I feel the Contrarian is already leading us down a dark road...

No he isn't.

--
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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PSGarak
PSGarak
Posts: 718

7/17/2018
Cooper wrote:
I feel the Contrarian is already leading us down a dark road...

It's not a road, and he's not leading us. It's a whole wide-open world, and he is standing back while we make our own completely free choice about whether to go forward or not.

I may be willing to concede the "dark" point.

--
http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/PSGarak
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Anne Auclair
Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215

7/17/2018
One thing that I find a little interesting is that the Princess and the Detective got a similar percentage (33/29), as did the Campaigner and Mr. Slowcake (21/23).

One could place the Campaigner and Slowcake on opposing poles, broad Respectable London and Hell, respectively. Strong bases, but any Moral/Infernal candidate needs to find a way of broadening their support. Feducci actually seems a good model in this respect - infernal enough to attract infernal support, but enough his own person to be seen as distinct.

The Detective/Princess comparison is a little more interesting. In the wake of Mayor Feducci, it's easy to forget how a lot of people didn't like the Detective's platform of empowering the tyrannical Constables and waging a "Grand Persecution." Very top down, rather authoritarian. The deliberate ambiguity of the Contrarian's reform platform in contrast promised to both strengthen and weaken the Constables at the same time. If you wanted to reform London's law enforcement but didn't like the Constables, the Contrarian seemed to be offering a nice medium. The Detective's platform was also very narrow, centered entirely on improving the police for its own sake - she for instance promised to help former detectives and constables who had fallen into honey addiction but not do anything for the rest of London's people. The Contrarian in contrast placed his proposals into the greater debate of London's relationship with the Masters - law enforcement was merely a means to an end.

I can't help but think the Contrarian pondered the results of his anarchic 1894 campaign, saw how the Detective did in 1895, and figured "What if I straddle the line between these two platforms?" As it turns out, instead of 35% or 33%, you get 48%.

And only the Contrarian could really do something like that because everyone expects him to be Contradictory.

--
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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Dudebro Pyro
Dudebro Pyro
Posts: 727

7/18/2018
Lady Sapho Byron wrote:
Jolanda Swan wrote:
Yes, please make our mayor proud by elaborating. No revolutionary favors for you otherwise!


An argument is a connected series of statements intended to establish a definite proposition.

I would certainly argue that an argument is also simply a heated disagreement between two (or more) people. Which would make what happened in this thread very much an argument.

--
Dudebro Pyro, eccentric scholar

Spare Starveling Kitties always welcome. I collect them.
For that matter, send me your unwanted cat boxes too.
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