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Noman's Friend Melt Rate Tracking 2017 Messages in this topic - RSS

Televangelist
Televangelist
Posts: 109

1/8/2018
Post your data here! Date of your TtH and amount lost.
+4 link
dov
dov
Posts: 2580

1/8/2018
I don't know what you are talking about. It's 1896 for me.

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+7 link
PSGarak
PSGarak
Posts: 834

3/14/2018
I... definitely wasn't expecting that. I'm a little shocked. This was only my second Sacksmas. I really didn't expect to achieve such rare company, especially considering how invested many others are in this game. I just wanted the tattoo (which is rare, but not as rare), and went to lengths to make sure that would happen.

I did some math... apparently my investment in my noman equals 1.2 goats. Well worth it.

--
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+4 link
idyl
idyl
Posts: 168

2/28/2018
In case anyone's interested, I've been collecting/sorting all of the data: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vRNcOIRmuMaSZQ0wgDB7xvmPZjhEhMlQSv6bhSDQIQbAL4V9A92l7h35Hzcgj35PrR2SGZDaBn8neXh/pubhtml#

Sorry if it's a bit confusing to read, I just threw it together a while back without thinking it would be shared. Hopefully it helps people see how every piece of data helps determine "weekly" averages, etc.

--
“Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est"
+3 link
PSGarak
PSGarak
Posts: 834

3/13/2018
You've lost 141 x Noman's Friend (new total 101 - The Noman is pristine).

I don't think he'll last another week.

I used 17 tears and... 58ish pails? Around that much. I started collecting in Feburary of last year. There was very little honest-to-goodness grinding until December when I needed to draw the Urchins card three times a day. Almost all of that was "background grinding," i.e. picking the options on Opportunity Cards that maximized the quantity of Wines or Whispers instead of Echoes. Although I was drawing more cards then usual because I was using Jenny's school to grind Renown with 6 or so factions for a few months in the middle there.

--
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+3 link
Sir Joseph Marlen
Sir Joseph Marlen
Posts: 575

1/26/2018
CameoAppearance wrote:
Well, last year I participated in the noman liveblog thread and successfully made it to the finish line, so I'll tally it now out of curiosity. Apparently I lost 226 Noman's Friend total in 2017: 59 (Jan 24) + 58 (Jan 31) + 109 (Feb 7) and then Thursnow died on the 14th because I only had 11 left over. This cost 8 bottles of Tears and 0 pails of lacre. 226 seems weirdly low, however punishing the jump from 58 to 109 may have been. Maybe I just got lucky enough to essentially skip a week since my TtH fell on the day the Feast started.

Shhh, don't encourage the devs!

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+3 link
dov
dov
Posts: 2580

2/8/2018
Sir Joseph Marlen wrote:
I lost 101 x Noman's Friend this Wednesday. Currently, I have 75 left and 7 ToL to raise my Noman's Friend to a 96 in the hopes that it will be enough to stave off death, but it also just so happens that Lilac comes around the same day as Time the Healer does for me. If I play the storylet early enough, I'll hopefully be able to complete my Noman-related actions for the Feast hours before they melt. Wish me luck!

Sine you have 6 days until the next TtH, and Lilac is due on the 12th (in 4 days) you might be just fine (unless she's delayed...)

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Skinnyman
Skinnyman
Posts: 2133

1/8/2018
idyl wrote:
2018!

That's a bit too much, don't you think? :P

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+3 link
Toran
Toran
Posts: 193

2/12/2018
Heartiest congratulations to those who have saved their melty friend long enough to get its likeness on your meat. I still find the story heartbreaking and have sworn to never revisit its cruelty.

--
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Harlocke
Harlocke
Posts: 506

2/10/2018
Feb 8 - Lost 102. New total 320.

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+2 link
Ysrthgrathe
Ysrthgrathe
Posts: 87

2/2/2018
You've lost 119 x Noman's Friend (new total 518 - The Noman is pristine).

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+2 link
Harlocke
Harlocke
Posts: 506

2/2/2018
Lost 99 ToL (new total 422)

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+2 link
Dima Lazarev
Dima Lazarev
Posts: 172

2/2/2018
Feb 02, 14:18 GMT: lost 110 x Noman's Friend (new total 292 - The Noman is pristine).

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+2 link
dov
dov
Posts: 2580

1/27/2018
January 26th, ~18:30 GMT:

You've lost 63 x Noman's Friend (new total 637 - The Noman is pristine).

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+2 link
IgnatuStone
IgnatuStone
Posts: 208

2/1/2018
You've lost 103 Nomans Friend (new total 488)

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+2 link
idyl
idyl
Posts: 168

1/8/2018
2018!

--
“Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est"
+2 link
Tozh Taurog
Tozh Taurog
Posts: 114

1/26/2018
Lost 27 NF on January 13; 41 NF on January 20. I'm not going for a tattoo, so I got it as soon as could get to the Wicket.

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Harlocke
Harlocke
Posts: 506

1/26/2018
Lost 68 on January 25th.

Do we know if your current Noman's Friend level affects the amount taken? Or does that not matter? If it does matter, I went from 463 to 395.
edited by Harlocke on 1/26/2018

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alekth
alekth
Posts: 80

1/8/2018
07.01 evening - 28 NF lost

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Josephine Montilyet
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CameoAppearance
CameoAppearance
Posts: 146

1/24/2018
(18 minutes ago) You've lost 72 x Noman's Friend (new total 50 - A little time remains to the Noman).

Well!

--
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+2 link
Hark DeGaul
Hark DeGaul
Posts: 208

1/24/2018
Had 74 Noman's Friend. Lost 74 Noman's Friend. Why do you do this to me RNG?

[PS. I lost 44 Noman's Friend on the 16th, which really wasn't that bad]
edited by Hark DeGaul on 1/24/2018

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Skinnyman
Skinnyman
Posts: 2133

2/14/2018
Some of last year's participants exceeded NB's mid-March, but not sure about who kept their Noman alive the longest.
And yesterday, 13th of February, around 23:00 GMT I lost 119 NF. Got my second tattoo and a Gant one two days again! Yay, Nomaaaan!

--
ESs items and quality requirements sheet. Please check if there are errors or if something is missing
Achievement list if you're feeling bored!
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Mordaine Barimen
Mordaine Barimen
Posts: 670

3/28/2018
idyl wrote:
Would have been nice to see all of that data for the ten or so weeks though.

I had quit the forums for good nearly a year ago, but came back to share this.

Still, if you want data...

3/27 You've lost 126 x Noman's Friend
3/20 You've lost 127 x Noman's Friend
3/13 You've lost 110 x Noman's Friend
3/6 You've lost 118 x Noman's Friend
2/27 You've lost 111 x Noman's Friend
2/20 You've lost 103 x Noman's Friend
2/13 You've lost 114 x Noman's Friend
2/6 You've lost 110 x Noman's Friend
1/30 You've lost 65 x Noman's Friend

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+2 link
PSGarak
PSGarak
Posts: 834

3/6/2018
You've lost 129 x Noman's Friend (new total 242 - The Noman is pristine).

I don't know how you all are doing, but it stopped being spring over here and resumed being winter. So I don't know how to record this.

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+2 link
Mordaine Barimen
Mordaine Barimen
Posts: 670

4/4/2018
April the Noman is Nomore.

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Optimatum
Optimatum
Posts: 3666

4/4/2018
Apparently just getting Pails is now optimal, with the Tribute grind making Night-Whispers substantially easier to get.

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Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi!

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+1 link
idyl
idyl
Posts: 168

4/6/2018
In case anyone was interested, I did an analysis of the melt rate data to best figure how much Noman's Friend would be lost each week. Originally posted on the subreddit here: https://www.reddit.com/r/fallenlondon/comments/8a61eq/2018_noman_data_melt_rate_for_those_interested/

Anyway, here are the basics:

Summary of Expected Losses (2018):
FromTilLowHighAverage
1/61/15205035
1/161/22356550
1/231/31508065
2/12/2190120105
2/223/27105150
127.5


This is based on the data collected, where actual results align fairly close with expected results: https://imgur.com/pn5a0PN
And here's a chart showing the "weekly" changes: https://imgur.com/d8EcHej

I hope this is of some interest to you all. Enjoy!

--
“Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est"
+1 link
PSGarak
PSGarak
Posts: 834

2/14/2018
From February 13th: You've lost 104 x Noman's Friend (new total 596 - The Noman is pristine).

--
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+1 link
alekth
alekth
Posts: 80

2/15/2018
You've lost 115 x Noman's Friend (new total 290 - The Noman is pristine).

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Josephine Montilyet
Aileas Amell - NORTH
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dov
dov
Posts: 2580

2/16/2018
February 16th, ~18:30 GMT:

You've lost 113 x Noman's Friend (new total 310 - The Noman is pristine).

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PSGarak
PSGarak
Posts: 834

2/21/2018
You've lost 91 x Noman's Friend (new total 505 - The Noman is pristine).

It's not technically spring, but it sure feels like it outside.

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+1 link
alekth
alekth
Posts: 80

2/22/2018
You've lost 137 x Noman's Friend (new total 153 - The Noman is pristine).

--
Ray Trevelyan
Josephine Montilyet
Aileas Amell - NORTH
+1 link
IgnatuStone
IgnatuStone
Posts: 208

2/22/2018
138 x Noman's Friend (new total 139)
edited by IgnatuStone on 2/22/2018

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+1 link
dov
dov
Posts: 2580

2/23/2018
February 23rd, ~18:30 GMT:

You've lost 147 x Noman's Friend (new total 163 - The Noman is pristine).

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Want a sip of Hesperidean Cider? Send me a request in-game. Here's an_ocelot's guide how.
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PSGarak
PSGarak
Posts: 834

2/28/2018
You've lost 134 x Noman's Friend (new total 371 - The Noman is pristine).

--
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+1 link
idyl
idyl
Posts: 168

3/13/2018
PSGarak wrote:
You've lost 141 x Noman's Friend (new total 101 - The Noman is pristine).

I don't think he'll last another week.
First off, I think you're the last one left with a Noman (reporting in, at least), so congrats!

Also, if it makes it until your next TtH, on the 20th, it will officially be Spring and you'll join the ranks of those whose Noman has lasted so long. There aren't too many who've made it to that marker...

--
“Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est"
+1 link
Skinnyman
Skinnyman
Posts: 2133

2/28/2018
On the 27th of February, around 23:00 GMT I lost 109 NF. Lower than last week (110) and lower than two weeks ago as well (119).
Great work with that sheet, idyl! smile

--
ESs items and quality requirements sheet. Please check if there are errors or if something is missing
Achievement list if you're feeling bored!
I am accepting Plant battles, Neath's Mysteries card, Starveling Cats and boxed cats.
No suppers, no second chances gain and no need to cure my menaces!
+1 link
alekth
alekth
Posts: 80

3/1/2018
You've lost 113 x Noman's Friend (new total 40 - The Noman is almost gone).

--
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Josephine Montilyet
Aileas Amell - NORTH
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Televangelist
Televangelist
Posts: 109

3/15/2018
It appears that the optimal I-just-want-the-tattoo route now is to do full pails, no tears necessary, since it's stabilized at taking about three TtHs for the tattoo.
+1 link
Optimatum
Optimatum
Posts: 3666

3/16/2018
What's the best way to acquire Storm-Threnodies these days, other than the Overgoat card? I'm trying to work out how much grinding the tattoo requires these days.

--
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Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi!

PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
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PSGarak
PSGarak
Posts: 834

3/16/2018
Optimatum wrote:
What's the best way to acquire Storm-Threnodies these days, other than the Overgoat card? I'm trying to work out how much grinding the tattoo requires these days.

If you're stockpiling for next year, probably stealing Journals of Infamy, side-converting to Plaques, and then upconverting. That requires Urchin favors, so it can't be done on-demand, but you can start acquiring materials now and then using Favors as you get them.

On-demand, the best advice I've received is breeding the Rubbery Hound, but that's Fate-locked.

--
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+1 link
Mordaine Barimen
Mordaine Barimen
Posts: 670

3/28/2018
You've lost 126 x Noman's Friend (new total 28 - The Noman is almost gone).


My Noman shall see April.

--
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If you still need help, try the IRC channel.
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Residual Toast
Residual Toast
Posts: 11

1/24/2018
I lost 38 on the 16th and 70 today. I think I underestimated how punishing this would be as well.

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dov
dov
Posts: 2580

1/25/2018
Krampus wrote:
CameoAppearance wrote:
Quite a bit.

That's not terribly helpful, is it? ;-)

Since a lot of the gathered gentlefolk is probably striving for it, may I ask:
What reserve of Noman's friend do you labour for?

I stopped at 700. But's that's probably overkill (I sincerely hope).

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alekth
alekth
Posts: 80

1/25/2018
Noman #1:
You've lost 61 x Noman's Friend (new total 7).

Phew, I have one more week for the quest of reclaiming my soul. Thought I'd be losing this one today.

Noman #2:
You've lost 78 x Noman's Friend (new total 622 - The Noman is pristine).
edited by alekth on 1/25/2018

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Josephine Montilyet
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Anagram
Anagram
Posts: 71

1/25/2018
700? 600? i think i may have used up all of my hard earned resources for naught. their is no way i can get it that high.

I only have 169 nomand friend, and 12 pails, 5 tears remaining.

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+1 link
dov
dov
Posts: 2580

1/11/2018
Deathjack999 wrote:
My melt rate would have showed up today...but I think I broke my TtH by collecting Second Chances with a Professional Perk that I already had in my inventory and then then not selecting the Ratcatchers Reward that came in afterwards.

...Whoops.

What you do (or not do) with Professional Perks has no impact on Time, the Healer's arrival.

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dov
dov
Posts: 2580

1/11/2018
Deathjack999 wrote:
dov wrote:
What you do (or not do) with Professional Perks has no impact on Time, the Healer's arrival.

Huh.

Well now I'm just confused, normally my TtH shows up around 11am on Thursdays.

Server outages occasionally delay TtH, and there were a couple of days recently with the site being non-responsive.

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silurica
silurica
Posts: 210

1/17/2018
Jan 17: You've lost 52 x Noman's Friend (new total 29 - The Noman is almost gone)

Darn, that was close. I'm glad I fed it some lacre. Leo doesn't have very good luck with his Noman...

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CameoAppearance
CameoAppearance
Posts: 146

1/21/2018
It can't go negative; if you get a loss exceeding the amount of Noman's Friend you have, it just goes to zero.

--
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idyl
idyl
Posts: 168

1/21/2018
Dudebro Pyro wrote:
So to confirm - if you lose exactly the amount of NF you had left, it's not an interesting data point, correct?
I think it's still useful. For example, Skinnyman's loss of 62 tells us that it can go at least that high (which is very important, since it helps identify if there's a trending increase in Melt Rate this year compared to last year). However, if he only had, say, 12 NF and lost it all this week, then it's not quite so useful. In fact, I'd scrap that loss of 12 since it would skew "real" data for the week.

The best suggestion I can think of is to report NF loss no matter what, but mention if it hits zero. The actual text from Time the Healer would be ideal, something like "Jan 17: You've lost 52 x Noman's Friend (new total 29 - The Noman is almost gone)."


~~
edited by idyl on 2/6/2018

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“Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est"
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CameoAppearance
CameoAppearance
Posts: 146

1/26/2018
I've never tried to get my Noman's Friend to a massive quantity as quickly as possible and then feed off that until it melts, rather than patching my noman up with a few bottles at a time, and I've never actually bothered adding up the total number of points I went through before.

Well, last year I participated in the noman liveblog thread and successfully made it to the finish line, so I'll tally it now out of curiosity. Apparently I lost 226 Noman's Friend total in 2017: 59 (Jan 24) + 58 (Jan 31) + 109 (Feb 7) and then Thursnow died on the 14th because I only had 11 left over. This cost 8 bottles of Tears and 0 pails of lacre. 226 seems weirdly low, however punishing the jump from 58 to 109 may have been. Maybe I just got lucky enough to essentially skip a week since my TtH fell on the day the Feast started.

--
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Anagram
Anagram
Posts: 71

2/1/2018
1/2 you've lost 114 noman friend.
256 to go, two tears. i really hope it'll last

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alekth
alekth
Posts: 80

2/1/2018
You've lost 103 x Noman's Friend (new total 519 - The Noman is pristine

--
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Josephine Montilyet
Aileas Amell - NORTH
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CameoAppearance
CameoAppearance
Posts: 146

1/30/2018
idyl wrote:
CameoAppearance wrote:
I fed my remaining ToL to the noman today and got Noman's Friend up to 77. That might buy me another week, since the most anyone else in this thread has lost so far is 76, although with the amount of NF you get back from Tears it'd take a miracle to get more than one more week. (Or a large Fate expenditure, which is essentially the same thing.) I'm trying to hedge my bets and get at least one more bottle of Tears from either the Sommelier or the Gallery of Serpents before TtH hits.
Bad News: This is probably the week that FB ramps up the melt rate, so expect to lose between 90 and 120. It's either already happened, or within the next day or so. Usually by Feb 1 or 2 the minimum is 90.
~~
edited by idyl on 1/30/2018

Technically, in both PST and UTC, my TtH is today. (Give or take about 20 minutes.) It's in ~16 hours. So if they flip the switch any later than that I'll be fine unless the RNG screws me over, probably.

Well, insofar as having Noman's Friend in the single digits counts as "fine".

Update: I did in fact manage to get another bottle of Tears. This cost me around 30 Fate, admittedly. (I needed Favourable Circumstances and a Church favour on short notice.) And I used up all my Darkdrop Coffee because I was impatient. Anyway, now I have exactly 90 Noman's Friend. I have a good chance of getting through this week but that's not enough to expect to get through the next.
edited by CameoAppearance on 1/30/2018

--
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dov
dov
Posts: 2580

2/3/2018
February 2nd, ~18:30 GMT:

You've lost 117 x Noman's Friend (new total 520 - The Noman is pristine).

--
Want a sip of Hesperidean Cider? Send me a request in-game. Here's an_ocelot's guide how.
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PSGarak
PSGarak
Posts: 834

2/6/2018
You've lost 94 x Noman's Friend (new total 700 - The Noman is pristine).

I should be able to get my tattoo before my next TtH. I may have gone overboard with preparations. I regret nothing.

--
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Suhe Gul
Suhe Gul
Posts: 200

2/6/2018
You've lost 112 x Noman's Friend
if lady lilac shows up next monday, this will be last TtH I had to survive through. I am glad I didnt went too crazy with preparation but I will admit I had 21 tears as back up plan xD even without them it seems I did spent more than necessary on piles.

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I am open to social actions except affluent photographer and loitering.
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Yves Devereux
Yves Devereux
Posts: 11

2/6/2018
"You've lost 109 x Noman's Friend (new total 465 - The Noman is pristine)."

Making an 8 foot tall noman was its own reward.

--
Profile - Yves Devereux
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CameoAppearance
CameoAppearance
Posts: 146

2/6/2018
I had 50 Noman's Friend, and I lost all of it 2 minutes ago. Like I said, I don't think it can go negative. I don't think it can subtract more than you have, either.
edited by CameoAppearance on 2/6/2018

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Dr Cameo “Scary Teeth” Thurlow, that toothy androgyne with the wickedly sharp curly quotes
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Skinnyman
Skinnyman
Posts: 2133

2/7/2018
Yesterday, 6th of February, around 23:00 GMT I lost 98 NF.

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IgnatuStone
IgnatuStone
Posts: 208

2/8/2018
You've lost 118 x Noman's Friend (new total 370 - The Noman is pristine).

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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Ignatus~Stone
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Sir Joseph Marlen
Sir Joseph Marlen
Posts: 575

2/8/2018
I lost 101 x Noman's Friend this Wednesday. Currently, I have 75 left and 7 ToL to raise my Noman's Friend to a 96 in the hopes that it will be enough to stave off death, but it also just so happens that Lilac comes around the same day as Time the Healer does for me. If I play the storylet early enough, I'll hopefully be able to complete my Noman-related actions for the Feast hours before they melt. Wish me luck!
edited by Sir Joseph Marlen on 2/8/2018

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 Saklad
Saklad
Posts: 528

2/13/2018
I lost 106 Noman's Friend today.

Does anyone know if it is possible to actually keep your Noman all year? I imagine it isn’t, due to steadily ramped-up melt rates if anything, and there probably isn’t content for Nomen who actually do make it all year like they say when you get your tattoo… But what if there is?


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    CameoAppearance
    CameoAppearance
    Posts: 146

    2/14/2018
    Saklad wrote:
    I lost 106 Noman's Friend today.

    Does anyone know if it is possible to actually keep your Noman all year? I imagine it isn’t, due to steadily ramped-up melt rates if anything, and there probably isn’t content for Nomen who actually do make it all year like they say when you get your tattoo… But what if there is?

    It's probably mechanically possible so long as you have a sufficiently absurd number of Tears of the Bazaar, but it's not likely that anyone can actually get that many Tears without spending a ton of Fate on action refreshes and wine grinding/archaeology, which is essentially an expensive cheat code. I don't know of anyone who's kept a noman for more than a couple of months; even NiteBrite only managed to get to about mid-March back in '15.
    edited by CameoAppearance on 2/14/2018

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    Dr Cameo “Scary Teeth” Thurlow, that toothy androgyne with the wickedly sharp curly quotes
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    alekth
    alekth
    Posts: 80

    2/8/2018
    You've lost 114 x Noman's Friend (new total 405 - The Noman is pristine).

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    Dima Lazarev
    Dima Lazarev
    Posts: 172

    2/9/2018
    Feb 9, 14:19 GMT — lost 91 x Noman's Friend (new total 201 - The Noman is pristine).

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    http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Dima Lazarev
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    dov
    dov
    Posts: 2580

    2/9/2018
    February 9th, ~18:30 GMT:

    You've lost 97 x Noman's Friend (new total 423 - The Noman is pristine)

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