crazyroosterman
Posts: 187
7/9/2017
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presuming you live in the uk then its exactly 1 hour and 48 before the results of the election come through(granted it will probably be several hours after words but im being hypothetical here) so I was wondering if you any of gentle men lady's and otherwise had any said last minute predictions for our victor?.
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Tystefy
Posts: 450
7/10/2017
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Call it a hunch, but I think Feduchini is going to win.
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Will sometimes return to post absurdity.
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Siankan
Posts: 1048
7/10/2017
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Anne Auclair wrote:
Siankan wrote:
It can therefore be surmised that Feducci's apparent popularity among less active players isn't likely to change, no matter what we see on the forums.
I talked to quite a few less active players who changed from Feducci to someone else.
I have no doubt you've talked to more players this election than the bulk of us have met in our entire London careers. That said, the number of players contributing to a candidate during this election is an unknown quantity until the dust has settled, and even your dauntless campaigning (yes, I said it) isn't likely to have reached the majority.
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Prof. Sian Kan, at your service.
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Spitfire Youngster
Posts: 32
7/9/2017
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I will be cheering for Feducci, to the bitter end.
I also doubt in Campaigner's victory. She had almost no presence in the game, while Feducci and Detective are very prominent characters.
Realistically, I am not as sure of Feducci's victory as I was a week ago. He had a lot of bad press, and there was a concentrated effort to prevent his victory.
If the Detective won, I would certainly appreciate the poetic justice of it. Based on this forum, there was a lot of shouting from Feducci and DTC, with comperatively no representation from the Detective. This would only prove that sometimes, you just need to lay low and get things done, while the hot-heads yell at each other.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Spitfire%20Youngster
Professional troublemaker, not a single regret since [REDACTED]
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Sara Hysaro
Moderator
Posts: 4514
7/9/2017
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Spitfire Youngster wrote:
Do we know at what time exactly the results will be released?
Probably around the morning to afternoon; nothing ends at midnight in this game.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Sara%20Hysaro
Please do not send SMEN, cat boxes, or Affluent Reporter requests. All other social actions are welcome.
Are you a Scarlet Saint? Send a message my way to be added to the list.
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Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215
7/9/2017
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If you want honest government you have to be willing to pay for it.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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Isaac Zienfried
Posts: 364
7/10/2017
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You know what, Tyssy?
We're dueling now.
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Isaac Zienfried, 'The Vacillating Belligerent.'
A gentleman of complicated loyalties, complicated morality, and complicated goals.
But really, it's hard to keep things simple down here!
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gronostaj
Posts: 403
7/10/2017
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(chanting from the sidelines) FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!
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Gronostaj (pl. Ermine), a decadent duellist of mysterious and indistinct gender. Seeker. Willing to die- but not of boredom. Open to all social actions, including the harmful ones.
Soft-Spoken Surgeon, a doctor who owes an onerous debt. Professor of medicine at the University by day, at criminal employ by night. Open to all non-harmful social actions.
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Estelle Knoht
Posts: 1751
7/10/2017
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BOINK! BOINK! BOINK!
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Estelle Knoht, a juvenile, unreliable and respectable lady.
I currently do not accept any catbox, cider, suppers, calling cards or proteges.
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Tystefy
Posts: 450
7/10/2017
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You know what, Tyssy?
We're dueling now.
*looks at clock*
Crap... I'm four hours late to posting a reply...
UH, I MEAN... I HAVEN'T PREPPED MY HOUSE WITH BOOBY-TRAPS YET!
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Will sometimes return to post absurdity.
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Siankan
Posts: 1048
7/10/2017
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Isaac Zienfried wrote:
That's a good point. While it's true the forums/Reddit aren't all of the userbase, it's also true they could roughly represent a trend throughout the userbase.
It's always dangerous to take active forum users as a barometer for an entire userbase. They tend to be more enfranchised and informed, but this also tends to skew their opinions.
To give a non-London example: Many moons ago now, the card game Magic produced three sets called Time Spiral, Planar Chaos, and Future Sight, which were full of creative and mechanical references from the game's entire history. They were built with enfranchised players in mind, who would get all of the in-jokes and appreciate the nostalgia. When the sets were released, that top tier of players really enjoyed them. Casual Joes, however, did not. It turns out that without deep knowledge of the game's history, they were just too confusing. Time Spiral therefore marked a low point in the game's history from a sales perspective, which it took several years to recover from. (Interestingly, its stock has risen since; Time Spiral is about a decade old, so most players never run into it until they're enfranchised enough to appreciate it.)
Now back to Fallen London: If you're interested in, say, Exceptional Stories, then the forums probably give you a pretty good barometer. The same factors which draw people to the forums - e.g. greater engagement and longer-term commitment - also draw people toward Exceptional Friendship, and there is consequently a high percentage of Exceptional Friends among active forum users. Seasonal content, on the other hand, has the opposite tendency. Some players are only fully active during seasonal content, and these players do not generally bother with the forum. (Even if they do, they tend toward ghosting, not posting.) Therefore, the more successful a seasonal event is in engaging these semi-active or inactive players, the less reliable forum activity is as an indicator of trends in the entire player base.
Now, the election is in a strange middle position. An uninvested player who only gets a few levels in campaign activities will have much less of an impact on the election than a deeply invested, maxed out endgame player who campaigns hard for his or her preferred candidate. On the other hand, that uninvested player is probably much less likely to change candidates, and therefore tends toward inertia. Because such players play less, they are less likely to discover worrying data like Feducci's inability to turn his campaign slogans into practical action. They are also effectively insulated from all the argument and campaigning going on in venues like this. Finally, if they are contributing less effort overall, semi-active players may be reticent to endanger those efforts by changing candidates mid-stream.
It can therefore be surmised that Feducci's apparent popularity among less active players isn't likely to change, no matter what we see on the forums. On the other hand, less active players individually count less than a maxed-out, high Notability POSI, so the arithmetic starts boiling down to how many half-hearted supporters it takes to equal one high-profile defection. It's all speculation at this point how it will play out, but I for one will be looking forward to getting my hands on post-election data.
(Lagniappe Electoral Prediction: Feducci, despite his bluster and vaguely anti-Master stance, may actually produce the most Master-friendly administration. If current information is anything to go by, Feducci has no idea how to actually get anything done, and perhaps no real idea of what he wants done. If that's true, he's likely to leave his party leaderless, which could paralyze the Revolutionaries and his other supporters. I suppose that would be an appropriately Neathy irony, no?)
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Prof. Sian Kan, at your service.
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Isaac Zienfried
Posts: 364
7/10/2017
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I think what they're trying to say is that your sample size is small compared to the whole.
At the same time, even if the size is small, I do think people are a little quick to dismiss it out-of-hand. I personally think it's shocking, surprising, and for those of us supporting the Campaigner, very encouraging.
We'll just have to see.
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Isaac Zienfried, 'The Vacillating Belligerent.'
A gentleman of complicated loyalties, complicated morality, and complicated goals.
But really, it's hard to keep things simple down here!
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gronostaj
Posts: 403
7/9/2017
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Feducci most likely. But even though I'm voting for him, I'd also be happy if he lost, just because I want to see if he would move out of Blythenhale peacefully without any Incidents, or would it be more like a forceful removal escalating into siege.
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Gronostaj (pl. Ermine), a decadent duellist of mysterious and indistinct gender. Seeker. Willing to die- but not of boredom. Open to all social actions, including the harmful ones.
Soft-Spoken Surgeon, a doctor who owes an onerous debt. Professor of medicine at the University by day, at criminal employ by night. Open to all non-harmful social actions.
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Jeremy Avalon
Posts: 345
7/9/2017
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Feducci, regrettably.
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How we must glow; yes, I bet we look like snow.
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Isaac Zienfried
Posts: 364
7/10/2017
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Trilby wrote:
I'd say anyone but Feducci considering the scandals he's had revealed.
You underestimate how little many players care about those. Or, hell, see them as more incentive to vote.
I predict many chose Feducci in the beginning and stuck to it just because switching was too much work. I'm honestly predicting a Feducci win, but it's no longer the foregone conclusion I'd seen it as at the beginning of this election. Both the Detective and the Campaigner have fought pretty hard this year, and even if Feducci still wins, they should be damn proud of that. Going up against these odds and actually creating uncertainty in an election many of us predicted would be a landslide? If you ask me, that's more worthy of a back-pat than sticking with the guy who was predicted to win all along. But then, I just enjoy fighting for underdogs, I guess. As I said to a debate partner once, I'm a fighter, which is precisely why I'm against Feducci.
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Isaac Zienfried, 'The Vacillating Belligerent.'
A gentleman of complicated loyalties, complicated morality, and complicated goals.
But really, it's hard to keep things simple down here!
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Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215
7/9/2017
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Curious Foreigner wrote:
Anne Auclair wrote:
Majority or plurality? A Majority is 50% + 1 and I'd be very surprised if anyone managed that.
A majority. It's a bit less likely that I get any actual winnings, but the odds are fantastic.
A majority would mean Feducci, or any other candidate, getting Sinning Jenny numbers. I just don't see that happening. Last election I don't remember anyone who defected from Sinning Jenny.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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crazyroosterman
Posts: 187
7/9/2017
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spitfire makes a really interesting point really while my candidates supports and the campaigners supporters have been practically trying to throttle each other to death.
there hasn't been a peep out of the detectives outside their own territory (im referring to threads dedicated to the detective in this regard) has there?.
while im backing fedduci for character related reasons I personally actually want the detective to win.
mainly because I feel shed be a really interesting mayor even outside the grand prosecution deal it would be interesting to see how far she got with her singular goal.
also my character would likely clash heavily with her and make things even more interesting for my self.
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Curious Foreigner
Posts: 210
7/9/2017
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Anne Auclair wrote:
A majority would mean Feducci, or any other candidate, getting Sinning Jenny numbers. I just don't see that happening. Last election I don't remember anyone who defected from Sinning Jenny.
My bet's on Feducci getting a majority because the bookies are giving great odds for it. Meaning it is unlikely to actually happen, but if it does, I'm getting a big payout.
--
Cochimetl went North, and beyond. No poems, only candlelight now. (Well, maybe one poem.)
The Gun-Toting Gallivanter, after an extended absence, is back in London again.
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Spitfire Youngster
Posts: 32
7/9/2017
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Do we know at what time exactly the results will be released?
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Spitfire%20Youngster
Professional troublemaker, not a single regret since [REDACTED]
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Luminen Walker
Posts: 172
7/9/2017
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The Bishop of Southwark- oh right... I figure the best case scenario is that we get the Detective.
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1 - Cpt. Martin Walker, a Paramount and Marvellous Dreamer.
2 - Ariana Crivelli, a silent and sagacious lady.
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Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215
7/9/2017
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I think anything could happen, with one exception: no one will win an outright majority.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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Curious Foreigner
Posts: 210
7/9/2017
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My bet's on Feducci, with a slight majority.
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Cochimetl went North, and beyond. No poems, only candlelight now. (Well, maybe one poem.)
The Gun-Toting Gallivanter, after an extended absence, is back in London again.
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Teaspoon
Posts: 866
7/10/2017
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Does anyone have a sense of what active players v. forum-going players are on other kinds of online games? Now I'm curious.
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Truth lies at the bottom of a well.
https://www.fallenlondon.com/profile/Alt%20Ern
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Siankan
Posts: 1048
7/10/2017
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Anne Auclair wrote:
But some of those I talked to switched before I contacted them. As in, I was an observer.
I wasn't referring to your effectiveness as a campaigner, but rather to the breadth of your contacts - extraordinary for an individual, but still only a part of the entire pool.
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Prof. Sian Kan, at your service.
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Isaac Zienfried
Posts: 364
7/10/2017
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Siankan wrote:
It's always dangerous to take active forum users as a barometer for an entire userbase. They tend to be more enfranchised and informed, but this also tends to skew their opinions.
Oh, I'm fully aware of that. I have little doubt the more casual players first leaned Feducci and didn't change their minds. I was referring to that odd middle-ground of active, invested players who nevertheless are scarce on the forums. Like I was before this election. I can only hope that particular demographic swung a little.
Siankan wrote:
(Lagniappe Electoral Prediction: Feducci, despite his bluster and vaguely anti-Master stance, may actually produce the most Master-friendly administration. If current information is anything to go by, Feducci has no idea how to actually get anything done, and perhaps no real idea of what he wants done. If that's true, he's likely to leave his party leaderless, which could paralyze the Revolutionaries and his other supporters. I suppose that would be an appropriately Neathy irony, no?)
Well, yeah. Feducci is, ironically, the one least likely to change anything, despite being the "bold" and "daring" one. In fact, one has to wonder if the Masters don't rig the elections to put their preferred candidates into office. Jenny, while promising much change, was just in too deep with certain Masters, and didn't challenge them as much as she'd like... which they likely predicted. If I could see that coming, they definitely could. Perhaps the same can be said of Feducci: he's the Masters' pick because he's a wonderful little distraction for Londoners while really accomplishing nothing. He's the bread-and-circus candidate.
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Isaac Zienfried, 'The Vacillating Belligerent.'
A gentleman of complicated loyalties, complicated morality, and complicated goals.
But really, it's hard to keep things simple down here!
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Spitfire Youngster
Posts: 32
7/9/2017
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"To the bitter end" means rather "to the very end, regardless of outcome", not "to the moment of defeat". This idiom, if I recall correctly, had something to do with knots at the ends of ropes used on ships. I still think that Feducci will win.
However, I've got to say, regardless of the winner, this election will leave somewhat of a bitter aftertaste, at least for me. There was no perfect candidate, and I chose Feducci as my candidate because, hey, none of them will fix London, but at least he promised to give everyone a chance to rise to the top. A slim chance, but still.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Spitfire%20Youngster
Professional troublemaker, not a single regret since [REDACTED]
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Curious Foreigner
Posts: 210
7/9/2017
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Anne Auclair wrote:
Majority or plurality? A Majority is 50% + 1 and I'd be very surprised if anyone managed that.
A majority. It's a bit less likely that I get any actual winnings, but the odds are fantastic.
edited by Curious Foreigner on 7/9/2017
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Cochimetl went North, and beyond. No poems, only candlelight now. (Well, maybe one poem.)
The Gun-Toting Gallivanter, after an extended absence, is back in London again.
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Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215
7/10/2017
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The words "It will be just like last time" have been carved upon a great many of the world's tomb stones.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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Catherine Raymond
Posts: 2518
7/9/2017
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I don't know. If the sound and fury in the Forums is anything to go by, I think the DTC might pull it out. The one thing I'm sure of is that the Detective is unlikely to win. My main's candidate. Sigh.
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Cathy Raymond
http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/cathyr19355
Catherine Raymond aka Mrs. Rykar Malkus http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/Catherine%20Raymond (Gone NORTH)
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