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any last minute predictions on our victor?. Messages in this topic - RSS

crazyroosterman
crazyroosterman
Posts: 187

7/9/2017
Anne Auclair wrote:
crazyroosterman wrote:
spitfire makes a really interesting point really while my candidates supports and the campaigners supporters have been practically trying to throttle each other to death.
there hasn't been a peep out of the detectives outside their own territory (im referring to threads dedicated to the detective in this regard) has there?.

while im backing fedduci for character related reasons I personally actually want the detective to win.
mainly because I feel shed be a really interesting mayor even outside the grand prosecution deal it would be interesting to see how far she got with her singular goal.
also my character would likely clash heavily with her and make things even more interesting for my self.

Speaking of your character, Anne has finally shown up to try and convince him to switch sides.

O...wowzers! I honestly thought you'd completely forgotten and that it was to late ill log back in now and go take a look.
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    Jeremy Avalon
    Jeremy Avalon
    Posts: 345

    7/9/2017
    Feducci, regrettably.

    --
    How we must glow; yes, I bet we look like snow.
    +3 link
    Catherine Raymond
    Catherine Raymond
    Posts: 2641

    7/9/2017
    I don't know. If the sound and fury in the Forums is anything to go by, I think the DTC might pull it out. The one thing I'm sure of is that the Detective is unlikely to win. My main's candidate. Sigh.

    --
    Cathy Raymond
    http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/cathyr19355

    Catherine Raymond aka Mrs. Rykar Malkus http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/Catherine%20Raymond (Gone NORTH)
    +1 link
    Trilby
    Trilby
    Posts: 290

    7/10/2017
    I'd say anyone but Feducci considering the scandals he's had revealed.

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    Trilby
    Trilby
    Posts: 290

    7/10/2017
    I'd say anyone but Feducci considering the scandals he's had revealed.

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    Isaac Zienfried
    Isaac Zienfried
    Posts: 364

    7/10/2017
    Trilby wrote:
    I'd say anyone but Feducci considering the scandals he's had revealed.

    You underestimate how little many players care about those. Or, hell, see them as more incentive to vote.

    I predict many chose Feducci in the beginning and stuck to it just because switching was too much work. I'm honestly predicting a Feducci win, but it's no longer the foregone conclusion I'd seen it as at the beginning of this election. Both the Detective and the Campaigner have fought pretty hard this year, and even if Feducci still wins, they should be damn proud of that. Going up against these odds and actually creating uncertainty in an election many of us predicted would be a landslide? If you ask me, that's more worthy of a back-pat than sticking with the guy who was predicted to win all along. But then, I just enjoy fighting for underdogs, I guess. As I said to a debate partner once, I'm a fighter, which is precisely why I'm against Feducci.

    --
    Isaac Zienfried, 'The Vacillating Belligerent.'
    A gentleman of complicated loyalties, complicated morality, and complicated goals.
    But really, it's hard to keep things simple down here!
    +2 link
    Anne Auclair
    Anne Auclair
    Posts: 2221

    7/10/2017
    The words "It will be just like last time" have been carved upon a great many of the world's tomb stones.

    --
    http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
    +1 link
    Isaac Zienfried
    Isaac Zienfried
    Posts: 364

    7/10/2017
    I agree with most of that, unfortunately, except, uh...

    Drake Dynamo wrote:
    even talking to (and converting) a few hundred users here and in-game would represent less than 1 percent of the player base.


    I don't have the numbers on how many FL players there are, but let's say "a few hundred" means ~200. If that's less than one percent, you're saying there are over 20,000 active and contributing players in this election. Now, I wouldn't be too shocked if you gathered up all the alts and casual players and it came out to around that number, but I think that sounds high for active contributions to the election.

    Then again, I could be underestimating FL's popularity.

    --
    Isaac Zienfried, 'The Vacillating Belligerent.'
    A gentleman of complicated loyalties, complicated morality, and complicated goals.
    But really, it's hard to keep things simple down here!
    0 link
    Anne Auclair
    Anne Auclair
    Posts: 2221

    7/10/2017
    I'm pretty confident that there was a big surge from Feducci to the Campaigner in the second week. The people who spoke about switching on Reddit, the Forums, and the in-game message system are the tip of the iceberg. It's easy to forget that almost no one switched sides on the Forum during the last election, just as almost no one switched sides period. There was a lot more switching this time, practically all of it from Feducci. The final result will hinge upon just how big the surge from Feducci to the Campaigner actually was.
    .
    edited by Anne Auclair on 7/10/2017

    --
    http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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    Isaac Zienfried
    Isaac Zienfried
    Posts: 364

    7/10/2017
    That's a good point. While it's true the forums/Reddit aren't all of the userbase, it's also true they could roughly represent a trend throughout the userbase. Plenty of people who aren't on the forums have Rubbery or Clay sympathies, and so the mid-week events may have swayed plenty of silent people to the Campaigner. In the places where people are more visible, we witnessed a pretty major shift from Feducci to the DTC. Like, half of his supporters on the forum came to our camp, and an even greater percentage on Reddit did (at least based on my very casual perusal of the threads there).

    At this point, I think it's really hard to predict who's going to win. This election was way better than last year's. Moral of the story: don't ever put people up against Jenny.

    Drake Dynamo wrote:
    Isaac Zienfried wrote:

    I don't have the numbers on how many FL players there are.

    Nearly two years ago, August of 2015, before the app launched, they tweeted they had surpassed 500,000 registered users. Even if only 1/10th of those people are active, that's still 50,000 people.

    Phew, okay, that number's much higher than I'd thought. Makes me wonder why we don't see more of them on the forums.
    edited by Isaac Zienfried on 7/10/2017

    --
    Isaac Zienfried, 'The Vacillating Belligerent.'
    A gentleman of complicated loyalties, complicated morality, and complicated goals.
    But really, it's hard to keep things simple down here!
    0 link
    Teaspoon
    Teaspoon
    Posts: 866

    7/10/2017
    Does anyone have a sense of what active players v. forum-going players are on other kinds of online games? Now I'm curious.

    --
    Truth lies at the bottom of a well.

    https://www.fallenlondon.com/profile/Alt%20Ern
    +2 link
    Amsfield
    Amsfield
    Posts: 176

    7/10/2017
    I enjoyed it, but it's nice to have campaigning done with. I do fully expect Feducci to win, possibly with straingth forward majority, provided my properganda hasn't put too many people off. I'm not too worried about defectors; whilst there definitely has been some I feel like it would not be nearly enough to change the out come. What concerns me is that i'm pretty sure end game players tended towards the DTC, probably because of the lack of content around her. If not Feducci, who I think offers the most interesting narrative, I hope the Detective wins for the Parabolan connection.

    --
    Amsfield: http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Amsfield
    A devotee of pleasures intellectual and fleshy. Always fabulously masked.
    Honoria Kastern: http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Honoria%20Kastern
    A hunter, a shooter and a fisher. Also a patriotic busy body. Mildly corrupted.
    Maiser: http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Maiser
    A young firebrand of obviously criminal intent.
    Venshik: http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Venshik
    Not a nice person.
    Asmeria: http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Asmeria
    Quiet, thoughtful and possibly mad. Excellent listener though. Favours grey.
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    Gillsing
    Gillsing
    Posts: 1207

    7/10/2017
    I wouldn't be surprised if only 1% of those registered users are actually playing the game regularly. Maybe 2% during a festival? That'd still be several thousand though. As for forum activity for any sort of computer game, I've heard that only a tiny fraction of players ever bother with forums. For my favourite game, only 5% of the players even managed to get the Steam achievement for finishing the game. Mainstream is not as hardcore as we are.
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    Isaac Zienfried
    Isaac Zienfried
    Posts: 364

    7/10/2017
    Gillsing wrote:
    Mainstream is not as hardcore as we are.

    *proceeds to crush a beer can against his head while giving a primal scream of rage*

    Gillsing wrote:
    I wouldn't be surprised if only 1% of those registered users are actually playing the game regularly. Maybe 2% during a festival? That'd still be several thousand though.

    Yeah, that was my thinking upon seeing the numbers. Registered users is definitely a far, far higher figure than active ones. And even some active ones likely care little about the election.

    But, to consider, that was also two years ago. While undoubtedly some regulars have dropped off in that time, we've also probably had some new ones. I still think "several hundred are less than 1%" isn't quite accurate, but the people involved are likely more numerous than my initial guess.
    edited by Isaac Zienfried on 7/10/2017

    --
    Isaac Zienfried, 'The Vacillating Belligerent.'
    A gentleman of complicated loyalties, complicated morality, and complicated goals.
    But really, it's hard to keep things simple down here!
    0 link
    Siankan
    Siankan
    Posts: 1048

    7/10/2017
    Isaac Zienfried wrote:
    That's a good point. While it's true the forums/Reddit aren't all of the userbase, it's also true they could roughly represent a trend throughout the userbase.

    It's always dangerous to take active forum users as a barometer for an entire userbase. They tend to be more enfranchised and informed, but this also tends to skew their opinions.

    To give a non-London example: Many moons ago now, the card game Magic produced three sets called Time Spiral, Planar Chaos, and Future Sight, which were full of creative and mechanical references from the game's entire history. They were built with enfranchised players in mind, who would get all of the in-jokes and appreciate the nostalgia. When the sets were released, that top tier of players really enjoyed them. Casual Joes, however, did not. It turns out that without deep knowledge of the game's history, they were just too confusing. Time Spiral therefore marked a low point in the game's history from a sales perspective, which it took several years to recover from. (Interestingly, its stock has risen since; Time Spiral is about a decade old, so most players never run into it until they're enfranchised enough to appreciate it.)


    Now back to Fallen London: If you're interested in, say, Exceptional Stories, then the forums probably give you a pretty good barometer. The same factors which draw people to the forums - e.g. greater engagement and longer-term commitment - also draw people toward Exceptional Friendship, and there is consequently a high percentage of Exceptional Friends among active forum users. Seasonal content, on the other hand, has the opposite tendency. Some players are only fully active during seasonal content, and these players do not generally bother with the forum. (Even if they do, they tend toward ghosting, not posting.) Therefore, the more successful a seasonal event is in engaging these semi-active or inactive players, the less reliable forum activity is as an indicator of trends in the entire player base.

    Now, the election is in a strange middle position. An uninvested player who only gets a few levels in campaign activities will have much less of an impact on the election than a deeply invested, maxed out endgame player who campaigns hard for his or her preferred candidate. On the other hand, that uninvested player is probably much less likely to change candidates, and therefore tends toward inertia. Because such players play less, they are less likely to discover worrying data like Feducci's inability to turn his campaign slogans into practical action. They are also effectively insulated from all the argument and campaigning going on in venues like this. Finally, if they are contributing less effort overall, semi-active players may be reticent to endanger those efforts by changing candidates mid-stream.

    It can therefore be surmised that Feducci's apparent popularity among less active players isn't likely to change, no matter what we see on the forums. On the other hand, less active players individually count less than a maxed-out, high Notability POSI, so the arithmetic starts boiling down to how many half-hearted supporters it takes to equal one high-profile defection. It's all speculation at this point how it will play out, but I for one will be looking forward to getting my hands on post-election data.

    (Lagniappe Electoral Prediction: Feducci, despite his bluster and vaguely anti-Master stance, may actually produce the most Master-friendly administration. If current information is anything to go by, Feducci has no idea how to actually get anything done, and perhaps no real idea of what he wants done. If that's true, he's likely to leave his party leaderless, which could paralyze the Revolutionaries and his other supporters. I suppose that would be an appropriately Neathy irony, no?)

    --
    Prof. Sian Kan, at your service.
    +3 link
    Isaac Zienfried
    Isaac Zienfried
    Posts: 364

    7/10/2017
    Siankan wrote:
    It's always dangerous to take active forum users as a barometer for an entire userbase. They tend to be more enfranchised and informed, but this also tends to skew their opinions.

    Oh, I'm fully aware of that. I have little doubt the more casual players first leaned Feducci and didn't change their minds. I was referring to that odd middle-ground of active, invested players who nevertheless are scarce on the forums. Like I was before this election. I can only hope that particular demographic swung a little.

    Siankan wrote:
    (Lagniappe Electoral Prediction: Feducci, despite his bluster and vaguely anti-Master stance, may actually produce the most Master-friendly administration. If current information is anything to go by, Feducci has no idea how to actually get anything done, and perhaps no real idea of what he wants done. If that's true, he's likely to leave his party leaderless, which could paralyze the Revolutionaries and his other supporters. I suppose that would be an appropriately Neathy irony, no?)

    Well, yeah. Feducci is, ironically, the one least likely to change anything, despite being the "bold" and "daring" one. In fact, one has to wonder if the Masters don't rig the elections to put their preferred candidates into office. Jenny, while promising much change, was just in too deep with certain Masters, and didn't challenge them as much as she'd like... which they likely predicted. If I could see that coming, they definitely could. Perhaps the same can be said of Feducci: he's the Masters' pick because he's a wonderful little distraction for Londoners while really accomplishing nothing. He's the bread-and-circus candidate.

    --
    Isaac Zienfried, 'The Vacillating Belligerent.'
    A gentleman of complicated loyalties, complicated morality, and complicated goals.
    But really, it's hard to keep things simple down here!
    +1 link
    Anne Auclair
    Anne Auclair
    Posts: 2221

    7/10/2017
    Siankan wrote:

    It can therefore be surmised that Feducci's apparent popularity among less active players isn't likely to change, no matter what we see on the forums.

    I talked to quite a few less active players who changed from Feducci to someone else.

    --
    http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
    0 link
    Siankan
    Siankan
    Posts: 1048

    7/10/2017
    Anne Auclair wrote:
    Siankan wrote:

    It can therefore be surmised that Feducci's apparent popularity among less active players isn't likely to change, no matter what we see on the forums.

    I talked to quite a few less active players who changed from Feducci to someone else.

    I have no doubt you've talked to more players this election than the bulk of us have met in our entire London careers. That said, the number of players contributing to a candidate during this election is an unknown quantity until the dust has settled, and even your dauntless campaigning (yes, I said it) isn't likely to have reached the majority.

    --
    Prof. Sian Kan, at your service.
    +5 link
    Anne Auclair
    Anne Auclair
    Posts: 2221

    7/10/2017
    Siankan wrote:
    Anne Auclair wrote:
    Siankan wrote:

    It can therefore be surmised that Feducci's apparent popularity among less active players isn't likely to change, no matter what we see on the forums.

    I talked to quite a few less active players who changed from Feducci to someone else.

    I have no doubt you've talked to more players this election than the bulk of us have met in our entire London careers. That said, the number of players contributing to a candidate during this election is an unknown quantity until the dust has settled, and even your dauntless campaigning (yes, I said it) isn't likely to have reached the majority.

    But some of those I talked to switched before I contacted them. As in, I was an observer.

    --
    http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
    0 link
    Siankan
    Siankan
    Posts: 1048

    7/10/2017
    Anne Auclair wrote:
    But some of those I talked to switched before I contacted them. As in, I was an observer.

    I wasn't referring to your effectiveness as a campaigner, but rather to the breadth of your contacts - extraordinary for an individual, but still only a part of the entire pool.

    --
    Prof. Sian Kan, at your service.
    +2 link




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