This is the place to discuss playing the game. Find tips, debate the best places to find certain items and share advice.
writing a short story
nathan7
Posts: 40
11/6/2016
|
Why was the option to work with others on getting potential removed? Do we know when it will be returned?
--
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Nathan575
|
|
|
+1
link
|
Saklad
Posts: 528
11/8/2016
|
YES!
--
Saklad5, a man of many talents
|
|
|
+2
link
|
An Individual
Posts: 589
11/7/2016
|
I think there are 2 philosophies of thought on when to attempt to write a Classic Short Story.
1) Wait until you're at 100% so you can't fail (334 potential)
2) Go for it as soon as you meet the minimum requirements (200 potential)
If you want to be absolutely certain of success, #1 is the best option. However, it requires 7-8 trade secrets (assuming you didn't spend the election farming case notes) to hit that 100% success rate. That's 4 attempts worth of trade secrets if you go for the minimum value. The minimum value has a success rate of 60% for a single attempt. Your probability of failing 3 times in a row (which is the maximum number of failures before you'll wish you'd just saved them all up and gone for the 100%) is 6.4% (0.4*0.4*0.4 = 0.064). Which is almost guaranteed. Almost. And if you have to go all the way up to 4 attempts where you'll have had to spend an equal number of trade secrets you only have a 2.56% chance of being very very sad.
Given the numbers I'd say the minimum value approach is the best one. Unless the RNG really really hates you.
--
An Individual's Profile
The RNG giveth and the RNG taketh away.
Goat Farming or Cider Brewing? This browser extension may help.
Want a Cider sip? Please refer to this guide before requesting.
Scholaring the Correspondence? A Brief Guide to Courier's Footprint.
Contemplating Oblivion? First Steps on the Seeking Road.
Gone NORTH? Opened the gate? Throw your character in a well.
|
|
|
+1
link
|
Optimatum
Posts: 3666
11/7/2016
|
An Individual wrote:
I think there are 2 philosophies of thought on when to attempt to write a Classic Short Story.
1) Wait until you're at 100% so you can't fail (334 potential)
2) Go for it as soon as you meet the minimum requirements (200 potential)
If you want to be absolutely certain of success, #1 is the best option. However, it requires 7-8 trade secrets (assuming you didn't spend the election farming case notes) to hit that 100% success rate. That's 4 attempts worth of trade secrets if you go for the minimum value. The minimum value has a success rate of 60% for a single attempt. Your probability of failing 3 times in a row (which is the maximum number of failures before you'll wish you'd just saved them all up and gone for the 100%) is 6.4% (0.4*0.4*0.4 = 0.064). Which is almost guaranteed. Almost. And if you have to go all the way up to 4 attempts where you'll have had to spend an equal number of trade secrets you only have a 2.56% chance of being very very sad.
Given the numbers I'd say the minimum value approach is the best one. Unless the RNG really really hates you.
The numbers for the minimum requirement are actually even better, if you plan things out well. Potential works like Taste of Lacre; both qualities increase by flat amounts if below a threshold. So if you can get the Potential to exactly 149, you can use a Blackmail Material to get the Potential to 161. Then two Trade Secrets brings Potential to 211, which is a 63.3% chance. This way the chances of failing the first three times is 4.9%, and the chance of failing a fourth time is only 1.81%.
--
Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.
 Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi!
PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
|
|
|
+1
link
|