idyl
Posts: 168
9/28/2016
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Although it might be early, I'm preparing for Sackmas and, specifically, the Noman and his related Tattoo. So I have some questions. I've read through NiteBrite's Noman guide (here: http://britetimes.tumblr.com/post/120307092714/noman-faq-and-guide-spoilers) and decided I'm going to attempt keeping my Noman alive to get the associated tattoo. I've done the math, crunched some numbers, etc., and just wanted to see if it seems correct.
I'm estimating that Time the Healer takes takes up to 95 Noman's Friend each week, as per the wiki: http://fallenlondon.wikia.com/wiki/Time,_the_Healer. Therefore, for up to five weeks, 475 Noman's Friend will be consumed.
The cycle that NiteBrite recommends uses 4 Tears of the Bazaar and 3 Pales of So-called Snow (on average) for 99 Levels of Noman's Friend. Math is here: http://imgur.com/IRNg2tM
Using a cycle that uses many more Pales, but fewer Tears per NF (5 Tears, 12 Pales on average) you can get 198 Noman's Friend. Math here: http://imgur.com/pYxdXgy
Combining the two, I figured that I could get 496 Noman's Friend using 13 Tears of the Bazaar and 18 Pales of So-called Snow. Math: http://imgur.com/vJMU1Sz
I'm just posting to see where I messed up in my calculations (since I probably did). I understand the cost behind Tears of the Bazaar, as well as for Pales of So-called Snow through the Urchin's card (and that it might require some Fate to draw that particular card). But assuming I created my Noman, say, the second to last week in January, and then used the Noman card to raise Noman's Friend up to 496 through these two cycles, it should be safe to assume it'll last five weeks, until the Tattoo Parlor is open, correct?
Again, this is all on average so I'll probably need a few more of each item to play it safe. And I realize how pricey all of this is, but still. Does that seem accurate, as per the math? 13 Tears of the Bazaar, 18 Pales of So-called Snow (=18 Night Whispers and 126 Storm-Threnodies).
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“Te Occidere Possunt Sed Te Edere Non Possunt Nefas Est"
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Barse
Posts: 706
9/28/2016
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It is worth remembering that the devs have almost confirmed that this year it will be harder. So none of these numbers can be relied upon, or even the items, for sure, except in that they are underestimates.
It was going to be harder last year too but there was confusion and not a little disappointment at the unannounced increase in Noman's friend loss, so they dialled it back while making known the fact that these losses will go up again this year and are intended to be adjusted every year based on their data.
edited by Barselaar on 9/29/2016
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 The Scorched Sailor, up for most social actions and RP. Not as scary as he looks.
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NiteBrite
Posts: 1019
9/28/2016
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My guide would have theoretically worked out for players last year who followed it in that the melt rate increased, but also FoTER came a full week earlier than expected. Adjusted for the shorter melt period the losses weren't actually that much higher- they just were sooner and that caught some people off guard, especially those who didnt want to use their full compliment of tears right away and took a wait and see approach to topping off the noman.
But yes, consider it dated material. It was perhaps true once, but what the future holds no one knows. I expect its still a decent sanity check on scale for absolute minimum levels of preparations and on methods you can use to prepare. Like if you dont meet those baselines then its very unlikely you will succeed though it is possible with extreme luck. Preparing more is recommended though since it was said that it will be harder this year. Does harder mean an increased melt to match a shorter melt period? Or is it increased melting overall? No one knows. But I wish you luck all the same my friend.
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I AM currently accepting calling cards.
Stats loss counter: reset, irrigo equivalent: none
[00:34] <@ortab> NiteBrite's laugh is that of a condemned soul gazing into the abyss.
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Barse
Posts: 706
9/29/2016
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Ah - I hadn't clocked on to the earlier Feast dates last year, thanks! Yeah, regardless of it perhaps being dated, I should also say that it's the best guide out there and also the baseline from which I've been working. Thanks Nite, and good luck to Idyl/anyone attempting it this year.
edited by Barselaar on 9/29/2016
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The Scorched Sailor, up for most social actions and RP. Not as scary as he looks.
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Grenem
Posts: 2067
9/29/2016
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idyl wrote:
I'm just posting to see where I messed up in my calculations (since I probably did). I understand the cost behind Tears of the Bazaar, as well as for Pales of So-called Snow through the Urchin's card (and that it might require some Fate to draw that particular card). But assuming I created my Noman, say, the second to last week in January, and then used the Noman card to raise Noman's Friend up to 496 through these two cycles, it should be safe to assume it'll last five weeks, until the Tattoo Parlor is open, correct?
Again, this is all on average so I'll probably need a few more of each item to play it safe. And I realize how pricey all of this is, but still. Does that seem accurate, as per the math? 13 Tears of the Bazaar, 18 Pales of So-called Snow (=18 Night Whispers and 126 Storm-Threnodies).
I'll do the math myself. 1 ToL = 3 noman's freind, right?
In that case, if you have 10 SotC, and use the best option, each pail of lacre is 9 points noman's freind. 18*3*3 = 162.
Each Tears of the bazaar is a random number of ToL from 2-infinity, but the average is 6. 13*(6*3) = 234
234+162+100 = 496 noman's friend gained. Since it starts off with 100 noman's freind, then on average, your numbers are right. {note the "on average". You are placing yourself in the RNG's hands for this, and more-so for each tears you use. You could get as little as 340, or as much as 810, though neither are likely.}
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Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
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aegisaglow
Posts: 202
9/29/2016
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The fact that it's going to be harder this year worries me as a casual player who's never experienced Sacksmas and just wants to build a snow friend.
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Mx. Aglow. Glazier, hedonist, devil-teaser, Paramount Presence. Pursuing their Heart's Desire.
Ms. Lilian Leith. A lady of proper standing, which seems like an increasingly ludicrous thing to give a rat's ___ about. Known (to some) for her Light Fingers.
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Pumpkinhead
Posts: 516
4/6/2017
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There is a way to drop your ToL by one point, which is useful for the semiotic monocle: If you use it twice to get ToL 6, then drop it by one, you have 5, and can use the monocle once more to get ToL 8. That might mean you can do it with 4 pails, if I'm doing the number right.
Edit: the option to drop ToL by one is at the wicket
edited by Pumpkinhead on 4/6/2017
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McGunn/Bsymstad is on the slow boat, waiting to see if he can find out what death is. (I'm done with London for now. Thanks for everything!)
Amanda Albright is a *spoiler* now, like she always wanted.
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Barse
Posts: 706
9/28/2016
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See the ruckus in and around this post for Chris' words on the matter: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic21457-nomans-friend-loss-data.aspx?Page=7#post129748
Against my better judgement I also am intending to try it this year, however!
edited by Barselaar on 9/28/2016
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The Scorched Sailor, up for most social actions and RP. Not as scary as he looks.
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Barse
Posts: 706
9/28/2016
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As many as I can get! I currently have 15 and will work on Pail materials for a while before switching back to Tear procuring.
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The Scorched Sailor, up for most social actions and RP. Not as scary as he looks.
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