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Noman Tattoo Math Messages in this topic - RSS

idyl
idyl
Posts: 204

9/28/2016
Although it might be early, I'm preparing for Sackmas and, specifically, the Noman and his related Tattoo. So I have some questions. I've read through NiteBrite's Noman guide (here: http://britetimes.tumblr.com/post/120307092714/noman-faq-and-guide-spoilers) and decided I'm going to attempt keeping my Noman alive to get the associated tattoo. I've done the math, crunched some numbers, etc., and just wanted to see if it seems correct.

I'm estimating that Time the Healer takes takes up to 95 Noman's Friend each week, as per the wiki: http://fallenlondon.wikia.com/wiki/Time,_the_Healer. Therefore, for up to five weeks, 475 Noman's Friend will be consumed.

The cycle that NiteBrite recommends uses 4 Tears of the Bazaar and 3 Pales of So-called Snow (on average) for 99 Levels of Noman's Friend. Math is here: http://imgur.com/IRNg2tM

Using a cycle that uses many more Pales, but fewer Tears per NF (5 Tears, 12 Pales on average) you can get 198 Noman's Friend. Math here: http://imgur.com/pYxdXgy

Combining the two, I figured that I could get 496 Noman's Friend using 13 Tears of the Bazaar and 18 Pales of So-called Snow. Math: http://imgur.com/vJMU1Sz

I'm just posting to see where I messed up in my calculations (since I probably did). I understand the cost behind Tears of the Bazaar, as well as for Pales of So-called Snow through the Urchin's card (and that it might require some Fate to draw that particular card). But assuming I created my Noman, say, the second to last week in January, and then used the Noman card to raise Noman's Friend up to 496 through these two cycles, it should be safe to assume it'll last five weeks, until the Tattoo Parlor is open, correct?

Again, this is all on average so I'll probably need a few more of each item to play it safe. And I realize how pricey all of this is, but still. Does that seem accurate, as per the math? 13 Tears of the Bazaar, 18 Pales of So-called Snow (=18 Night Whispers and 126 Storm-Threnodies).

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LukeFBG
LukeFBG
Posts: 709

9/28/2016
It is worth remembering that the devs have almost confirmed that this year it will be harder. So none of these numbers can be relied upon, or even the items, for sure, except in that they are underestimates.

It was going to be harder last year too but there was confusion and not a little disappointment at the unannounced increase in Noman's friend loss, so they dialled it back while making known the fact that these losses will go up again this year and are intended to be adjusted every year based on their data.
edited by Barselaar on 9/29/2016
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idyl
idyl
Posts: 204

9/28/2016
I like a good challenge, but damn.

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LukeFBG
LukeFBG
Posts: 709

9/28/2016
See the ruckus in and around this post for Chris' words on the matter: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic21457-nomans-friend-loss-data.aspx?Page=7#post129748

Against my better judgement I also am intending to try it this year, however!
edited by Barselaar on 9/28/2016
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idyl
idyl
Posts: 204

9/28/2016
That's crazy. What kind of number of Tears, etc. are you preparing for this year?

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LukeFBG
LukeFBG
Posts: 709

9/28/2016
As many as I can get! I currently have 15 and will work on Pail materials for a while before switching back to Tear procuring.
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NiteBrite
NiteBrite
Posts: 1019

9/28/2016
My guide would have theoretically worked out for players last year who followed it in that the melt rate increased, but also FoTER came a full week earlier than expected. Adjusted for the shorter melt period the losses weren't actually that much higher- they just were sooner and that caught some people off guard, especially those who didnt want to use their full compliment of tears right away and took a wait and see approach to topping off the noman.

But yes, consider it dated material. It was perhaps true once, but what the future holds no one knows. I expect its still a decent sanity check on scale for absolute minimum levels of preparations and on methods you can use to prepare. Like if you dont meet those baselines then its very unlikely you will succeed though it is possible with extreme luck. Preparing more is recommended though since it was said that it will be harder this year. Does harder mean an increased melt to match a shorter melt period? Or is it increased melting overall? No one knows. But I wish you luck all the same my friend.

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LukeFBG
LukeFBG
Posts: 709

9/29/2016
Ah - I hadn't clocked on to the earlier Feast dates last year, thanks! Yeah, regardless of it perhaps being dated, I should also say that it's the best guide out there and also the baseline from which I've been working. Thanks Nite, and good luck to Idyl/anyone attempting it this year.
edited by Barselaar on 9/29/2016
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idyl
idyl
Posts: 204

9/29/2016
I'd like to thank NiteBrite as well, since their guide is the one that pushed me toward attempting it this year. And best of luck to Barselaar and the others as well. It'll be interesting, to say the least.
edited by idyl on 9/29/2016

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Grenem
Grenem
Posts: 2067

9/29/2016
idyl wrote:

I'm just posting to see where I messed up in my calculations (since I probably did). I understand the cost behind Tears of the Bazaar, as well as for Pales of So-called Snow through the Urchin's card (and that it might require some Fate to draw that particular card). But assuming I created my Noman, say, the second to last week in January, and then used the Noman card to raise Noman's Friend up to 496 through these two cycles, it should be safe to assume it'll last five weeks, until the Tattoo Parlor is open, correct?

Again, this is all on average so I'll probably need a few more of each item to play it safe. And I realize how pricey all of this is, but still. Does that seem accurate, as per the math? 13 Tears of the Bazaar, 18 Pales of So-called Snow (=18 Night Whispers and 126 Storm-Threnodies).

I'll do the math myself. 1 ToL = 3 noman's freind, right?

In that case, if you have 10 SotC, and use the best option, each pail of lacre is 9 points noman's freind. 18*3*3 = 162.

Each Tears of the bazaar is a random number of ToL from 2-infinity, but the average is 6. 13*(6*3) = 234

234+162+100 = 496 noman's friend gained. Since it starts off with 100 noman's freind, then on average, your numbers are right. {note the "on average". You are placing yourself in the RNG's hands for this, and more-so for each tears you use. You could get as little as 340, or as much as 810, though neither are likely.}

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An Individual
An Individual
Posts: 590

9/29/2016
I was part of that whole kerfuffle last year and my guess at the time was that the adjustment was based largely on wanting players to need a certain amount of Noman's Friend to make it to the Feast and get the Tattoo if they formed it at the last possible minute. Based on some very hand wavy math that you can find here I estimated that the target number was somewhere between 300 and 400 Noman's Friend but it's based on very partial data which combined with Chris' warning means I wouldn't rely on it at all.

I made it last year using 30 Pails of So Called Snow and 2 Tears of the Bazaar giving me an initial value of 364 Noman's Friend which I calculated would have gotten me there at the original melt rate by the skin of my teeth, maybe. You can find the thread where people declared their intention to make the attempt and their initial materials here.

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Parelle
Parelle
Posts: 1084

9/29/2016
As an interested watcher last year, I gave out a ton of notability to those pursuing a Nomen tattoo. Keep in mind that ability is disabled, so you'll need to be ready to generate your first point of Notablity on your own with BDR.

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aegisaglow
aegisaglow
Posts: 206

9/29/2016
The fact that it's going to be harder this year worries me as a casual player who's never experienced Sacksmas and just wants to build a snow friend.

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Grenem
Grenem
Posts: 2067

9/29/2016
aegisaglow wrote:
The fact that it's going to be harder this year worries me as a casual player who's never experienced Sacksmas and just wants to build a snow friend.

Well, if that's all you want to do, you shouldn't have any trouble. It's only if you want to prolong its demise until febuary that you have a serious issue.

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Optimatum
Optimatum
Posts: 3768

9/29/2016
If your goal is to get Noman's Progess to 15 and finish its story, you're unlikely to have any issues at all. The Noman card is incredibly common; I finished the story in two or three days when I did it. Plus you don't have to wait for the absolute last second and deal with the higher cost, so you'd likely have spare ToL to keep it alive through unforeseen circumstances.

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Ignatius Basalt
Ignatius Basalt
Posts: 208

4/6/2017
I've just begun my Noman Grind for the year. Early bird gets the worm! Anyways, can someone clarify the following for me? It seems that the most efficient way of reaching the required 15 Taste of Lacre to create a Noman is through the following method.

First use the "Examine it through your Semiotic Monocle" option on a pail of so called snow twice. This should increase your ToL to 6.

Next choose the correct options over the course of the 12 days of Mr sacks to raise your ToL. This along with the advent calendar should give you an additional 6 points for at total of 12.

Lastly use the feed it to a wild boar option 3 times on three different buckets to raise ToL to 15.

This would take fewer buckets if I saved 2 ToL from last year. Unfortunately I didn't have the foresight. It looks like if things continue as normal then it should be possible to get 7 pails and 6 Tol for free. Is this correct? Its difficult to understand game mechanics from the wiki alone.
edited by IgnatuStone on 4/6/2017

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Pumpkinhead
Pumpkinhead
Posts: 516

4/6/2017
There is a way to drop your ToL by one point, which is useful for the semiotic monocle: If you use it twice to get ToL 6, then drop it by one, you have 5, and can use the monocle once more to get ToL 8. That might mean you can do it with 4 pails, if I'm doing the number right.
Edit: the option to drop ToL by one is at the wicket
edited by Pumpkinhead on 4/6/2017

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Ignatius Basalt
Ignatius Basalt
Posts: 208

4/6/2017
Unfortunately that doesn't help given that I'll have already received any free taste of Lacre by that point.

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Optimatum
Optimatum
Posts: 3768

4/6/2017
If you have a single point of ToL left over, you could sniff some Tears of the Bazaar for the second. From your wording I'm assuming that's not the case though.
edited by Optimatum on 4/6/2017

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