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Wounds-Mediated Profit
Wiwo
Posts: 365
9/21/2016
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In the recent heist-analysis thread, Optimatum brought up Wounds-mediated profit. Rather than clog up that thread any more than I already have, I figured I'd bring that part of the discussion here.
The question is a somewhat exotic one: "What are actions which become profitable (or more profitable) if you don't have to care about wounds". You may think it doesn't apply to you at all unless you're in the Cider Club, but there are a few other circumstances where a more general audience might be interested, such as Hallowmas.
So far, I've come up with:
- Gawp in the Labyrinth, which surpasses the Doctor Schlomo card as the best nightmares cure.
- Refereeing unsportsmanlike KnC bomb-makers on the difficult to acquire KnC lodgings card.
- Drinking the potions of a Wines-employed aunt (no link due to fate-locking)
- Turning in bulk favours on the Rubbery/TC conflict card .
- Curing suspicion when you have Counting the Days 12 or 13. Lots of caveats to this one, but if you a) have an eligible Closest To b) can profit from the favours which result from a 2 full cycles of CtD c) can cycle from 1-12 while only using opp cards other than the wounds card and d) are super patient, it's worth it.
Still not very good:
What else is out there that I might have failed to consider?
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Wiwo. Almost certainly not a squid in a cunningly tailored suit. Surely.
 Care for some cider? Here's how to ask me for some. Strange pranks strongly preferred.
Care to pet a Heptagoat? Too bad. It doesn't do anything (probably).
I'm a Correspondent and would be delighted to lecture at your orphanage.
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Wiwo
Posts: 365
9/22/2016
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Kaijyuu wrote:
Here's a weird one:
Deal with Mirror Smugglers + Take the Goat Demon Alive at 30% success already has excellent EPA with regular wounds reduction methods. With only one action to go from 8 to 0 wounds, it becomes one of the best in the game. My guess without doing any actual math is around 2.40 EPA.
The big caveat is you can't have progressed too far into the labyrinth or Deal with Mirror Smugglers goes away.
edited by Kaijyuu on 9/21/2016
I remember looking at this previously when I was doing some math about Duelling the Black Ribbon, Thefts of a Particular Character, and Assisting Mr. Inch, all of which have the same structure of being something you accumulate CP toward until you reach a minimum, try the action at the minimum probability (it nearly always works out this way because of the expanding number of necessary CP for each quality level, suffer a menace and CP penalty if you fail, and go back to the first step of the process upon your first success.
I started out summing probability trees, but that gets to be a very cumbersome approach for low success probabilities ‘p’. Happily, it turns out that if you express it as m=p+(1-p)(1+m) it simplifies to m=1/p where m is the number of tries on average and p is the probability for each discrete event.
So the average number of tries it takes to capture the goat demon alive is 1/.3=3.3333…
Which means we need 11 RB plus enough extra to make up for our expected 2.333… failures, which is to say 66 + (2.333…*10)=89.33333, which we’ll round up to 90 which is fine since 90 is the nearest integer we’re going to be able to achieve at a rate of 3 cp of RB/action anyways.
So we’ll expect that we’ll spend 30 actions to gain 90 cp of RB and 32.4E of Rostygold, and spend a further 3.333… actions on attempts which will result in 32.76 of Primordial Shrieks and 2.333…*3=7 cp of wounds.
Grand total, that gives 65.16E/33.333… actions for 1.95 EPA for cider owners for whom wounds cures are incidental to drinking the cider every time they run out of taste of the garden anyways and 65.16E/34.888 actions for 1.87 EPA for the hoi polloi assuming they have friends willing to unilaterally cure their wounds.
edited by Wiwo on 9/22/2016
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Wiwo. Almost certainly not a squid in a cunningly tailored suit. Surely.
Care for some cider? Here's how to ask me for some. Strange pranks strongly preferred.
Care to pet a Heptagoat? Too bad. It doesn't do anything (probably).
I'm a Correspondent and would be delighted to lecture at your orphanage.
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Kaijyuu
Posts: 1047
9/22/2016
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Higher than that! I get ~4.8 attempts per success (or a little under 4 failures per success). Over half one's successes should be within 2 attempts, but long failure streaks are common, shooting the average up (nearly a 3% chance of 10 failures in a row, for example).
Here's my script (it's in python):
http://pastebin.com/bT7MkYm9
EDIT: Further looking at my numbers I'm inclined to believe your ~1.85 is actually accurate. Still looking over my math but I think I got the ppa calculation wrong (everything else should be good).
EDITEDIT: Yeah, I did get it wrong. ~2.00 is the average of PPAs, not the average PPA. There are a lot of high PPA attempts that shoot up the mean. ~1.85 is the correct average PPA.
EDITEDITEDIT: Well this is embarassing, there was also an error in calculating the number of attempts per success (it's 3.333 as you said), since I was incorrectly adding the wound reduction actions to that number.
Forget I said anything :P
edited by Kaijyuu on 9/22/2016
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Be of good cheer. Our contacts have assured us that your sins are forgiven.
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+1
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Kaijyuu
Posts: 1047
9/21/2016
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Here's a weird one:
Deal with Mirror Smugglers + Take the Goat Demon Alive at 30% success already has excellent EPA with regular wounds reduction methods. With only one action to go from 8 to 0 wounds, it becomes one of the best in the game. My guess without doing any actual math is around 2.40 EPA.
The big caveat is you can't have progressed too far into the labyrinth or Deal with Mirror Smugglers goes away.
edited by Kaijyuu on 9/21/2016
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Be of good cheer. Our contacts have assured us that your sins are forgiven.
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+1
link
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