Passionario
Posts: 777
7/12/2016
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Angus Turner wrote:
her supporters still go to the trouble of bribing voters
Fixer 20 is not just a number, it's a commitment.
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Passionario: Profile, Story, Ending
Passion: Profile, Appearance
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Optimatum
Posts: 3666
7/12/2016
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Where's all the "overwhelming numbers" talk coming from? The halfway poll showed Jenny in the lead; there were no mentions of insurmountable odds or anything as to the degree of the lead. That poll was also measuring support before the various candidates' situations were updated. We have no idea how the further revelations will or already have changed things.
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Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.
 Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi!
PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
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Angus Turner
Posts: 72
7/12/2016
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Optimatum wrote:
Where's all the "overwhelming numbers" talk coming from? The halfway poll showed Jenny in the lead; there were no mentions of insurmountable odds or anything as to the degree of the lead. That poll was also measuring support before the various candidates' situations were updated. We have no idea how the further revelations will or already have changed things.
Even before the elections, polls showed Jenny having a lead to rival that of both other candidates combined (see here, and also here, though the latter is probably less accurate). This poll, which has a fairly large sample size, gives her more than 50% of the vote. This very thread, dedicated to people who do not wish to see Jenny elected, shows only slightly more optimistic numbers - and even so the number of Jenny voters is higher than that of Contrarian and Bishop voters combined! Even disregarding the amount of posts supporting Jenny, which in my assessment vastly outnumbers posts supporting the other candidates, there is a lot of evidence showing that Jenny has, and always had, a serious lead on the other candidates.
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The Philanthropic Scholar.
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Optimatum
Posts: 3666
7/13/2016
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Except all of those polls are voluntary surveys of a forum on which active users make up a pretty small amount of the total number of active players. Just because a fair number of vocal forum-goers support Jenny does not mean the overall playerbase does as well. The first two polls are also from before the election began, aka from before any election information on the candidates was available. There's no evidence whatsoever that Jenny is that far in the lead overall, only that the Bishop is doing by far the worst.
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Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.
Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi!
PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
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Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215
7/13/2016
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Two quick thoughts on strategic voting.
1. You'll need to take it beyond the forum for it to have much impact.
2. You need to decide which candidate is more deserving of being the champion :P That's tricky, because the platforms of the Contrarian and the Bishop are so far apart and only share a radical dissatisfaction with the status quo.
3. There's no evidence that the Contrarian is doing better than the Bishop outside the forum. It's possible that the Contrarian is actually in third (which might be why his campaign seems to have had the biggest shakeup - though that might be because his campaign is the most ideologically diverse).
edited by Anne Auclair on 7/13/2016
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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Parelle
Posts: 1084
7/13/2016
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#anyonebutjenny
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Parelle, Lady Joseph Marlen. The Singular Librarian. A Midnighter, a Player of the Marvelous.
pages from a dusty bookshop: a badly updated FL changelog | Useful Guidance and Explanations
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Optimatum
Posts: 3666
7/13/2016
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Anne Auclair wrote:
3. There's no evidence that the Contrarian is doing better than the Bishop outside the forum. It's possible that the Contrarian is actually in third (which might be why his campaign seems to have had the biggest shakeup - though that might be because his campaign is the most ideologically diverse).
From the storylet text I doubt it: "...a few white pennants break up the sea of scarlet and jet."
--
Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.
Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi!
PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
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Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215
7/13/2016
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Optimatum wrote:
Anne Auclair wrote:
3. There's no evidence that the Contrarian is doing better than the Bishop outside the forum. It's possible that the Contrarian is actually in third (which might be why his campaign seems to have had the biggest shakeup - though that might be because his campaign is the most ideologically diverse).
From the storylet text I doubt it: "...a few white pennants break up the sea of scarlet and jet."
Oh, that wasn't there yesterday. Was it?
Okay, so that takes care of 2 and 3. You guys just need to organize it beyond the forum.
edited by Anne Auclair on 7/13/2016
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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Angus Turner
Posts: 72
7/13/2016
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You have to argue that forum-goers are so unrepresentative of the general player base that every single poll conducted on them failed miserably to predict the results, if you wish to argue that Jenny doesn't have a massive lead. Which isn't impossible, but when official results match up with the forum polls results just as you would expect, I can't see any reason to place a high probability on that.
Regarding our chosen candidate: it does indeed seem like that should be the Contrarian. In addition to the fact that all polls show that he's doing much better, this poll shows that many Contrarian voters would prefer Jenny over the Bishop, while most (all that voted) Bishop voters either prefer the Contrarian to Jenny or are indifferent between them. The poll has been open for almost 24 hours now, and I think it has a large enough sample size to be indicative of the forums, at least.
As for taking this out of the forums: I suppose we'll have to look at 'who else is here', look through people's journals, and if we find them pledging allegiance to the Bishop, offer them to join the bloc. Maybe I'll mention this in the general election thread, since players who don't usually frequent the forums may still stumble upon that thread from the messages tab.
So, that being said: Bishop voters who wish to block Jenny - are you willing to vote Contrarian? Make your voice heard, so that we know this has a chance. Let's make this happen people!
#anyonebutjenny
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The Philanthropic Scholar.
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Optimatum
Posts: 3666
7/13/2016
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Angus Turner wrote:
You have to argue that forum-goers are so unrepresentative of the general player base that every single poll conducted on them failed miserably to predict the results, if you wish to argue that Jenny doesn't have a massive lead. Which isn't impossible, but when official results match up with the forum polls results just as you would expect, I can't see any reason to place a high probability on that.
Forum-goers are pretty unrepresentative of the general player base, though. A large percentage of the active forum users are long-time, consistently-active players. (For example, of the handful of users who've posted in this thread, I count nine with forum accounts over a year old, including both of us - and like many I created my forum account much later than I began playing.) Long-time players are also much more likely to become Exceptional Friends, and February's Exceptional Story featured Sinning Jenny in a quite positive light - one of very few appearances in the game, the other two of which are limited to one Ambition and a seasonal event. Newer or less-dedicated players are much less likely to ever meet her than either the Bishop or Contrarian, both of whom appear in easily-accessed free stories. (Theological Husbandry for the Bishop, the Affluent Photographer and PoSI party for the Contrarian.) It seems quite logical to me that players are more likely to vote for characters they've actually met and interacted with positively.
So yes, I do argue that active forum-goers, ie those likely to participate in polls and discussions, are quite unusual with regard to the overall player base and cannot be effectively used to analyze the population at large. Two of the three polls you linked were from right after the candidate announcements, before any details about the campaigns were ever available. Those aren't very reliable predictors anyway: real-life political polls fluctuate constantly as news spreads among voters, and here as well news broke when the election began and at the halfway point. (The third poll isn't particularly helpful, as it fails to tally voters for each candidate and simultaneously leaves out undecided voters or those not done increasing their careers.)
In any case, the only official word is that Jenny was in the lead at one point on Monday by an unknown amount. There is no evidence this lead was insurmountable or even particularly large at that time. We don't know that lead has been maintained as voters continue to increase their careers. In fact, the recent revelations counter the concerns causing many voters to jump ship from the Bishop and Contrarian, so some who reluctantly chose Jenny may have already changed back.
This is what I've been trying to say. Our only information regarding the polls is that approximately two days ago Jenny was in the lead by some amount. We do not know that amount, nor do we know how continued voting or additional information may have changed it. Given time and potential further information, it is completely possible that Jenny may lose without any sort of vote manipulation. Any statements that fixing votes on a meta level is required for Jenny to lose are simply inaccurate.
(And I'm not even going to get into how silly I find the idea anyways of needing one fictional candidate over another because one is somehow inherently Bad. Even ignoring the fictional part, I'll take an unsupported promise of assistance over the likelyhood of a catastrophic war or chance of Liberation gaining power any day.)
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Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.
Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi!
PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
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Angus Turner
Posts: 72
7/13/2016
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Optimatum wrote:
(stuff about polls being inaccurate etc)
(And I'm not even going to get into how silly I find the idea anyways of needing one fictional candidate over another because one is somehow inherently Bad. Even ignoring the fictional part, I'll take an unsupported promise of assistance over the likelyhood of a catastrophic war or chance of Liberation gaining power any day.)
As I've already said, this is not the place to argue for Jenny. There are plenty of other places to do that. Nor am I interested in reminders that this is all just a silly game, as if I'm not aware of that. Seriously. You think this is a stupid waste of time? Good for you. I wouldn't be doing this if I didn't find this somehow worthwhile.
And as for your points about the forums being unrepresentative - older players are going to have a much larger influence on the elections. They are more likely to raise their career to 20 and far more likely to have notability, not to mention the fact that many have alts. The main election thread is likely read by players who don't frequent the forums and who reached it from the messages tab, and that thread is flush with people singing Jenny's praises, just like every other thread. Are we completely, 100% sure that Jenny has a large lead? No. But we have a lot of evidence pointing that way, and nothing indicating the reverse.
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The Philanthropic Scholar.
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Lady Sapho Byron
Posts: 770
7/13/2016
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Angus Turner wrote:
Optimatum wrote:
(stuff about polls being inaccurate etc)
(And I'm not even going to get into how silly I find the idea anyways of needing one fictional candidate over another because one is somehow inherently Bad. Even ignoring the fictional part, I'll take an unsupported promise of assistance over the likelyhood of a catastrophic war or chance of Liberation gaining power any day.)
As I've already said, this is not the place to argue for Jenny. There are plenty of other places to do that. Nor am I interested in reminders that this is all just a silly game, as if I'm not aware of that. Seriously. You think this is a stupid waste of time? Good for you. I wouldn't be doing this if I didn't find this somehow worthwhile.
And as for your points about the forums being unrepresentative - older players are going to have a much larger influence on the elections. They are more likely to raise their career to 20 and far more likely to have notability, not to mention the fact that many have alts. The main election thread is likely read by players who don't frequent the forums and who reached it from the messages tab, and that thread is flush with people singing Jenny's praises, just like every other thread. Are we completely, 100% sure that Jenny has a large lead? No. But we have a lot of evidence pointing that way, and nothing indicating the reverse.
I do hope Failbetter posts the true "votes tallies" (Campaigner, etc. level + Notability) for the candidates. I should very much like to see how proportions compare to this thread's poll (which is wonderful, by the way).
edit: And the g-docs one, which is even wonderful-er.
edited by Lady Sapho Byron on 7/13/2016
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http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/Lady%20Sapho%20L%20Byron
Fighting the Menace of Corsetry Since 1892.
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Optimatum
Posts: 3666
7/13/2016
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Angus Turner wrote:
Optimatum wrote:
(And I'm not even going to get into how silly I find the idea anyways of needing one fictional candidate over another because one is somehow inherently Bad. Even ignoring the fictional part, I'll take an unsupported promise of assistance over the likelyhood of a catastrophic war or chance of Liberation gaining power any day.)
As I've already said, this is not the place to argue for Jenny. There are plenty of other places to do that. Nor am I interested in reminders that this is all just a silly game, as if I'm not aware of that. Seriously. You think this is a stupid waste of time? Good for you. I wouldn't be doing this if I didn't find this somehow worthwhile.
I think it's clearly time for us to stop arguing over this, as we're achieving nothing more than ruffling more feathers. But I do want to correct this one thing.
I think this is silly, yes. That is not my issue here. Nor is the issue that it's a waste of time, which I do not believe - I do many things on a regular basis which others may consider a waste of time, yet they remain fulfilling. My issue is that this is a community-wide event. If someone wants to manipulate a single-player game aspect I see no issue with it; however much they may change things, it does not affect me. But this is an event influencing and influenced by all players. Your proposal to sway the outcome could impact everyone. And doing such a thing has far too much potential to hurt feelings and diminish the enjoyment of others, when in my view we don't even know this is necessary to achieve your goal.
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Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.
Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi!
PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
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Angus Turner
Posts: 72
7/13/2016
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Optimatum wrote:
I think this is silly, yes. That is not my issue here. Nor is the issue that it's a waste of time, which I do not believe - I do many things on a regular basis which others may consider a waste of time, yet they remain fulfilling. My issue is that this is a community-wide event. If someone wants to manipulate a single-player game aspect I see no issue with it; however much they may change things, it does not affect me. But this is an event influencing and influenced by all players. Your proposal to sway the outcome could impact everyone. And doing such a thing has far too much potential to hurt feelings and diminish the enjoyment of others, when in my view we don't even know this is necessary to achieve your goal.
Yes, this is a community-wide event. And it is the community which I'm trying to sway to my cause. Yes, I'm trying to manipulate the vote - that's what every single person debating for or against a candidate is doing. Yes, if Jenny isn't elected that may 'hurt the feelings and diminish the enjoyment' of others - though I hope people won't take it quite that hard - but the exact same thing might happen if she is elected, just for everyone who didn't support her. If there aren't enough people interested in this to make this happen then it won't happen. And if there are, what's the problem, exactly?
edited by Angus Turner on 7/13/2016
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The Philanthropic Scholar.
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th8827
Posts: 823
7/13/2016
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I am a Bishop voter, but I am unwilling to vote Contrarian because Revolutionaries are literally my character's (and my) most hated faction. I purposely keep my Revolutionary connection low in order to not help them Plot against the Masters.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/th8827
Gone NORTH. It's nice here.
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Lumyire
Posts: 167
7/13/2016
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Late to the election party. What would be the most efficient way of voting? Did fixers get fixed?
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https://www.fallenlondon.com/profile/Lumyire
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Lisbella Peridot
Posts: 138
7/13/2016
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Lumyire wrote:
Late to the election party. What would be the most efficient way of voting? Did fixers get fixed?
Agitator's the easiest way, Campaign's fastest if you have lots of Favours in High Places. Fixers are slowest but can raise Notability faster.
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Anatasia Swansong - fencing prodigy, extraordinary beauty, and very stubborn
Welcoming friends of all sorts! All independent now.
Kelly Siniature - grinning, deranged, elegant child of indistinct gender
Kelly is taking a long break on isolation.
I also play Town of Salem and a few other games - still Lisbella Peridot!
I finally regained stable internet access, so I should be around more often...
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Anne Auclair
Posts: 2215
7/13/2016
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Angus Turner wrote:
Optimatum wrote:
I think this is silly, yes. That is not my issue here. Nor is the issue that it's a waste of time, which I do not believe - I do many things on a regular basis which others may consider a waste of time, yet they remain fulfilling. My issue is that this is a community-wide event. If someone wants to manipulate a single-player game aspect I see no issue with it; however much they may change things, it does not affect me. But this is an event influencing and influenced by all players. Your proposal to sway the outcome could impact everyone. And doing such a thing has far too much potential to hurt feelings and diminish the enjoyment of others, when in my view we don't even know this is necessary to achieve your goal.
Yes, this is a community-wide event. And it is the community which I'm trying to sway to my cause. Yes, I'm trying to manipulate the vote - that's what every single person debating for or against a candidate is doing. Yes, if Jenny isn't elected that may 'hurt the feelings and diminish the enjoyment' of others - though I hope people won't take it quite that hard - but the exact same thing might happen if she is elected, just for everyone who didn't support her. If there aren't enough people interested in this to make this happen then it won't happen. And if there are, what's the problem, exactly?
edited by Angus Turner on 7/13/2016
Actually you're not trying to manipulate the vote, you're just trying to influence it. It's not manipulation to tell someone if you don't want Y to win then you need to vote for X instead of Z. That is not remotely manipulation, that's just being strategic with your support. And the game took that possibility into consideration by allowing candidate switching in the first place.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Anne%20Auclair
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Lumyire
Posts: 167
7/13/2016
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Lisbella Peridot wrote:
Agitator's the easiest way, Campaign's fastest if you have lots of Favours in High Places. Fixers are slowest but can raise Notability faster.
Thanks! I lost 3 points of Notability over the past couple months (not so much new content in the game so didn't log in for a couple weeks) so I'd rather get them back. Picked Fixer!
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https://www.fallenlondon.com/profile/Lumyire
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Lisbella Peridot
Posts: 138
7/13/2016
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Angus Turner wrote:
Yes, this is a community-wide event. And it is the community which I'm trying to sway to my cause. Yes, I'm trying to manipulate the vote - that's what every single person debating for or against a candidate is doing. Yes, if Jenny isn't elected that may 'hurt the feelings and diminish the enjoyment' of others - though I hope people won't take it quite that hard - but the exact same thing might happen if she is elected, just for everyone who didn't support her. If there aren't enough people interested in this to make this happen then it won't happen. And if there are, what's the problem, exactly?
That's not what Optimatum is saying. It is the tone and the players. It is not about who getting elected, but about how hostile it sounds to the players that voted Jenny. The players. It make the forums unwelcoming, victory for Jenny or not. Get what I mean?
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Anatasia Swansong - fencing prodigy, extraordinary beauty, and very stubborn
Welcoming friends of all sorts! All independent now.
Kelly Siniature - grinning, deranged, elegant child of indistinct gender
Kelly is taking a long break on isolation.
I also play Town of Salem and a few other games - still Lisbella Peridot!
I finally regained stable internet access, so I should be around more often...
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