This is the place to discuss playing the game. Find tips, debate the best places to find certain items and share advice.
Doing the Math
Early
Posts: 196
2/4/2012
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I would imagine, given how many intelligent and dedicated Fallen Londoners there are, that someone has probably taken it upon themselves at some point to test the specific odds of success for each category (straightforward, low-risk, modest, chancy, high-risk, and almost impossible). Since it seems rather a waste to do the necessary testing myself if it's already been done, I thought I'd ask here.
The other statistic of interest is the "rare" successes found in certain stories, including most of the new item uses. In particular, I'm wondering if the chance of getting a rare success is the same for every action that has them (for example, if the chance of getting a rare success when talking to Mr. Sacks' orphans is the same as the chance of getting a rare success when trading Third City Relics), or if it can be different. Has anyone done any digging into this?
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Early
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Alexis Kennedy
Posts: 1374
2/5/2012
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We used to be public about the difficulty % numbers: we aren't any more
(i) in case we need to tweak them
(ii) because when we were, someone would mail us on average once a week after a run of bad luck to complain that our random number generator was faulty. :-)
...but the assumptions the community's made are broadly correct.
However, rare successes aren't a flat 10%: they vary by story and circumstance.
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T WO Chandler
Posts: 93
2/7/2012
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streetfelineblue wrote:
Also on the matter of CP gained per successful/unsuccessful Action: exactly, how many? I think I remember something like Straightforward - 1 CP for success/failure; Low-risk - 2 CP success, 1 CP failure; high-risk... Maybe 5 CP success, 3 CP failure? Can't even remember where I read that T.T
Does anybody have more precise numbers?
Straightforward and Low-Risk are 1 CP, Modest is 2, Chancy is 2-3, High Risk is 3 on a failure and 4 on a success, Nearly Impossible is 3 on a failure and 5 on a success.
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For secrets are their own reward.
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Patrick Reding
Posts: 440
2/4/2012
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I`m reasonably certain from my experience that the lower success cap is 10%, the upper cap is 100%, and outside of these you gain 10% success rate per level. Rare successes have a flat 10% chance. The textual descriptions are:
100% - straightforward
90% - low-risk
80% - low-risk
70% - modest
60% - modest
50% - chancy
40% - chancy
30% - high-risk
20% - high-risk
10% - almost impossible
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http://echobazaar.failbettergames.com/Profile/Yana
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