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Item conversion rare success chances
Mizadil
Posts: 57
3/8/2016
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According to the Wiki, Exploit your Romantic Notions-->Pen some Neathy love poetry for a Surface audience has a rare success chance of delivering a comprehensive bribe.
Can anyone confirm that they have recently seen this result? I've had exactly ZERO rare successes in exactly 100 attempts.
Has anyone attempted to determine the rare success odds from item conversions in general?
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Mizadil :: http://www.fallenlondon.com/Profile/Mizadil
:: A Paramount Presence ::
Correspondent :: "Never too busy to help educate your orphans."
I always have time for a game of chess or sparring bout, and will reciprocate Neath's Mysteries.
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Remedan
Posts: 61
3/9/2016
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Grenem wrote:
Assuming odds don't stack, you not finding one in 100 tries is roughly as likely, assuming we make our prediction on try 0, as rolling a 6-sided die and not landing a prime number.
Wait, primes on d6 are 2, 3, and 5. So there's an 50% chance. 0.99^100 is ~37%. Why choose such an odd example when it's not even a good approximation?
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 My Neathly Alter Ego -- Still trying to make some sense of it all.
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Mizadil
Posts: 57
3/9/2016
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Remedan wrote:
Grenem wrote:
Assuming odds don't stack, you not finding one in 100 tries is roughly as likely, assuming we make our prediction on try 0, as rolling a 6-sided die and not landing a prime number.
Wait, primes on d6 are 2, 3, and 5. So there's an 50% chance. 0.99^100 is ~37%. Why choose such an odd example when it's not even a good approximation?
Actually, depending on what decade one went to school in, 1 is a prime number too...which would make the odds of not landing a prime 1/3, which is in fact fairly close.
I do understand statistics, I just had no idea the odds of a rare success were as low as they are. As it stands, it looks like the fidgeting writer is a far more economical source of comprehensive bribes.
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Mizadil :: http://www.fallenlondon.com/Profile/Mizadil
:: A Paramount Presence ::
Correspondent :: "Never too busy to help educate your orphans."
I always have time for a game of chess or sparring bout, and will reciprocate Neath's Mysteries.
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Grenem
Posts: 2067
3/8/2016
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Assuming odds don't stack, you not finding one in 100 tries is roughly as likely, assuming we make our prediction on try 0, as rolling a 6-sided die and not landing a prime number.
Not getting a success in 300 tries is ~4.5%, or a little lower than the odds of rolling a 1 on a D20.
A shortcut to use it on your calculator is (odds that any individual try is a failure [as a fraction of 1])^(number of tries). when plugged into this, it says a roughly .0066 chance of no success on try 500, or, rather, that 1 person in 152 will still be failing on try #500
edited by Grenem on 3/8/2016
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Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
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