Grenem
Posts: 2067
12/21/2015
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I'm under the impression, though i may be mistaken, that someone has been trying to gather the odds of rare successes for up-crafting: i.e. the bottle of airaig when turning love stories -> bazaar permits. If anyone can provide me a link to such a document, or the generally agreed-upon estimate, that would be appreciated, as i've got 1500 or so visions of the surface to upcraft. Thanks!
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Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
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metasynthie
Posts: 645
12/21/2015
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As an easy rule of thumb I'd recommend assuming the success rate is 5% for Tier 1 to Tier 2 and Tier 2 to Tier 3, 10% for Tier 3 to Tier 4 and 4% for Tier 4 to Tier 5.
If you want to see a collection of data (which has a much bigger spread than that):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v-OSVnf1qcRTV89G4Yj4wlo3GY3kxa0y-MpYC07T9-4/edit#gid=2
Converting 1500 Visions of the Surface to 300 Touching Love Stories should net you an average of 1620 Greyfields 1879, 67-68 CP of Making Waves, and 3-4 Uncanny Incanabulum.
Converting 300 Touching Love Stories into 60 Bazaar Permits should net you an average of 1440 Cryptic Clues and a ~30% chance of getting one bottle of Fourth City Airag.
More if you're lucky, less if you're not!
--
Positively antique
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/metasynthie
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Guest
12/22/2015
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metasynthie wrote:
As an easy rule of thumb I'd recommend assuming the success rate is 5% for Tier 1 to Tier 2 and Tier 2 to Tier 3, 10% for Tier 3 to Tier 4 and 4% for Tier 4 to Tier 5.
If you want to see a collection of data (which has a much bigger spread than that):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v-OSVnf1qcRTV89G4Yj4wlo3GY3kxa0y-MpYC07T9-4/edit#gid=2
Converting 1500 Visions of the Surface to 300 Touching Love Stories should net you an average of 1620 Greyfields 1879, 67-68 CP of Making Waves, and 3-4 Uncanny Incanabulum.
Converting 300 Touching Love Stories into 60 Bazaar Permits should net you an average of 1440 Cryptic Clues and a ~30% chance of getting one bottle of Fourth City Airag.
More if you're lucky, less if you're not!
Hope this isn't a silly question, but what do you recommend mining to get such items in that bulk?
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Kaigen
Posts: 530
12/22/2015
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You could go to Polythreme and spend every action for a week and a half grinding Romantic Notions.
Alternately, steal Journals of Infamy from the Flit and side-convert to Visions.
If you don't care about the Vision conversions, Heists at Baseborn & Fowlingpiece's office is the most efficient way to grind Touching Love Stories directly.
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Just a simple doctor with a chess habit. Publisher of The Flit Dispatch.
"One must remember that the impossible is, alas, always possible."
-Jacques Derrida
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Grenem
Posts: 2067
12/22/2015
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the truthseeker wrote:
Hope this isn't a silly question, but what do you recommend mining to get such items in that bulk?
I can't speak for anyone else, but i took my newspaper's journals of infamy from weeks of printing and side-crafted to the first thing that could be upcrafted with MW gain without going out of my way for points connected. I'm trying to farm Notability loop, since i could well need 9 more buckets, and force-draws are worth investing in in any case. Not getting my goat till christmas is over, i expect, which is fine. I also wasted half of them on upcrafts that don't have the airaig chance, which is a shame.
edited by Grenem on 12/22/2015
--
Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
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Pyrodinium
Posts: 639
12/22/2015
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the truthseeker wrote:
metasynthie wrote:
As an easy rule of thumb I'd recommend assuming the success rate is 5% for Tier 1 to Tier 2 and Tier 2 to Tier 3, 10% for Tier 3 to Tier 4 and 4% for Tier 4 to Tier 5.
If you want to see a collection of data (which has a much bigger spread than that):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v-OSVnf1qcRTV89G4Yj4wlo3GY3kxa0y-MpYC07T9-4/edit#gid=2
Converting 1500 Visions of the Surface to 300 Touching Love Stories should net you an average of 1620 Greyfields 1879, 67-68 CP of Making Waves, and 3-4 Uncanny Incanabulum.
Converting 300 Touching Love Stories into 60 Bazaar Permits should net you an average of 1440 Cryptic Clues and a ~30% chance of getting one bottle of Fourth City Airag.
More if you're lucky, less if you're not!
Hope this isn't a silly question, but what do you recommend mining to get such items in that bulk?
If you're feeling lucky you can ambush couriers in Spite's Unfinished Business storylet. A rare success there can net you a Touching Love Story.
--
My profiles: http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Pyrodinium
(A Monster hunter on the hunt of his twin brother's killer. Overprotective dad of his twin's daughter)
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Rudolph~of~Taured
(an indeterminate person of potentially rubbery lineage)
* All social actions except photographers and loitering welcome!
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metasynthie
Posts: 645
12/22/2015
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the truthseeker wrote:
Hope this isn't a silly question, but what do you recommend mining to get such items in that bulk?
I assume you're talking about the 1500 Visions from the original post, since everything else I mentioned is the product of conversion. The cheapest way to get Visions is to convert them upwards from Romantic Notions acquired by grinding in Polythreme. Slow but profitable (in other items) methods to get Visions include the Capering Relicker (when cashing out Someone is Coming) and grinding Correspondence Plaques by doing Affair of the Box, then side-converting. That takes 25 runs of the Box carousel to get 51 Visions, but you get a lot of echoes while doing it. After that, the best is probably just getting Honey in Veilgarden and upconverting it a couple times.
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Positively antique
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/metasynthie
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The Master
Posts: 804
12/22/2015
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Pyrodinium wrote:
the truthseeker wrote:
metasynthie wrote:
As an easy rule of thumb I'd recommend assuming the success rate is 5% for Tier 1 to Tier 2 and Tier 2 to Tier 3, 10% for Tier 3 to Tier 4 and 4% for Tier 4 to Tier 5.
If you want to see a collection of data (which has a much bigger spread than that):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v-OSVnf1qcRTV89G4Yj4wlo3GY3kxa0y-MpYC07T9-4/edit#gid=2
Converting 1500 Visions of the Surface to 300 Touching Love Stories should net you an average of 1620 Greyfields 1879, 67-68 CP of Making Waves, and 3-4 Uncanny Incanabulum.
Converting 300 Touching Love Stories into 60 Bazaar Permits should net you an average of 1440 Cryptic Clues and a ~30% chance of getting one bottle of Fourth City Airag.
More if you're lucky, less if you're not!
Hope this isn't a silly question, but what do you recommend mining to get such items in that bulk?
If you're feeling lucky you can ambush couriers in Spite's Unfinished Business storylet. A rare success there can net you a Touching Love Story.
Note: it's not a rare success, just an alternative success.
--
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Lolwolfking
A very ruthless and daring doctor of the neath.
No more gift exchanges, im getting too many and I can barely hold these.
He has knowledge of a certain enigma, ask, you will get a clue.
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Grenem
Posts: 2067
12/22/2015
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The Master wrote:
Pyrodinium wrote:
the truthseeker wrote:
metasynthie wrote:
As an easy rule of thumb I'd recommend assuming the success rate is 5% for Tier 1 to Tier 2 and Tier 2 to Tier 3, 10% for Tier 3 to Tier 4 and 4% for Tier 4 to Tier 5.
If you want to see a collection of data (which has a much bigger spread than that):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v-OSVnf1qcRTV89G4Yj4wlo3GY3kxa0y-MpYC07T9-4/edit#gid=2
Converting 1500 Visions of the Surface to 300 Touching Love Stories should net you an average of 1620 Greyfields 1879, 67-68 CP of Making Waves, and 3-4 Uncanny Incanabulum.
Converting 300 Touching Love Stories into 60 Bazaar Permits should net you an average of 1440 Cryptic Clues and a ~30% chance of getting one bottle of Fourth City Airag.
More if you're lucky, less if you're not!
Hope this isn't a silly question, but what do you recommend mining to get such items in that bulk?
If you're feeling lucky you can ambush couriers in Spite's Unfinished Business storylet. A rare success there can net you a Touching Love Story.
Note: it's not a rare success, just an alternative success.
Rare success is the popular terminology. It's not rare enough to be truely rare, but "rare success" just refers to an alternative outcome on success that may or may not trigger. Also, I'm pretty sure it is rarer than the standard success- or more people would be doing that for echo grinding at 2.5 epa half the time.
edited by Grenem on 12/22/2015
--
Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
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Guest
12/23/2015
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It answered the question if I'm going to Polythreme the next time I set zail. I promised I'd finish those quests there anyway.
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