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12/21/2015
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Sara Hysaro wrote:
I was responding to navchaa's question about what to do with Flawed Diamonds, not the OP's question about Cryptic Clues. I already responded to the OP's question.
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edited by Sara Hysaro on 12/21/2015
My mistake and my apologies. The math is good to keep but I'll edit that prior reply. Again, sorry for any wrongdoing reply on my end.
edited by the truthseeker on 12/21/2015
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Sara Hysaro
Moderator
Posts: 4514
12/21/2015
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Yes, the math is good for anyone curious.  It's okay - I don't always quote who I'm replying to, and as such it can occasionally be ambiguous.
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dov
Posts: 2580
12/21/2015
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the truthseeker wrote:
Kaigen wrote:
Does anyone have some solid testing to determine what the chance of critical success on the bag of low quality diamonds is? Because whether or not that option is worth it really depends on whether the odds are as high as or lower than 5%.
Sorry missed the question earlier or I would have posted this then. For all luck/rare successes inquiries, go here and use their document. I believe all checks are at a 400 attempt iteration minimum, (not just successes) if not more.
Oh, and the answer is 6.43% which one could surmise that the attempted setup of the in-game rare success was 6.5%, but could be a low as 6%. Still, much higher than even 5% in the Rare Success world of things.
The doc lists a Rare Success chance of 6.43%, but for only 171 attempts.
As I've noticed earlier in this thread, I have records of 1130 attempts I've done in the past few weeks, with a success rate of 5.4%.
Maybe I was just really unlucky. Maybe those recording in the Google Doc were very lucky. Who knows?
But even combining my numbers with those in the doc only gives an average of 5.53% for all 1130+171 attempts.
There's definitely not enough data to determine whether the real probability is 6.4%. I think it's highly probable that it is at least 5%. But can't tell yet for sure if it's more.
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Guest
12/21/2015
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dov wrote:
the truthseeker wrote:
Kaigen wrote:
Does anyone have some solid testing to determine what the chance of critical success on the bag of low quality diamonds is? Because whether or not that option is worth it really depends on whether the odds are as high as or lower than 5%.
Sorry missed the question earlier or I would have posted this then. For all luck/rare successes inquiries, go here and use their document. I believe all checks are at a 400 attempt iteration minimum, (not just successes) if not more.
Oh, and the answer is 6.43% which one could surmise that the attempted setup of the in-game rare success was 6.5%, but could be a low as 6%. Still, much higher than even 5% in the Rare Success world of things.
The doc lists a Rare Success chance of 6.43%, but for only 171 attempts.
As I've noticed earlier in this thread, I have records of 1130 attempts I've done in the past few weeks, with a success rate of 5.4%.
Maybe I was just really unlucky. Maybe those recording in the Google Doc were very lucky. Who knows?
But even combining my numbers with those in the doc only gives an average of 5.53% for all 1130+171 attempts.
There's definitely not enough data to determine whether the real probability is 6.4%. I think it's highly probable that it is at least 5%. But can't tell yet for sure if it's more.
(Looks like I have to unretire him again  )
No, look again.
Regular Successes, Rare Successes, Total Successes. That is listing 171 Successful Attempts. It does not list the failures or total attempts. Since this is a Rare Success compilation only, this is why, and why I mentioned the number of iterations before as it won't list Total Attempts there. Please note these details next time should a newer person bring it up to you.
edited by the truthseeker on 12/21/2015
edited by the truthseeker on 12/21/2015
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dov
Posts: 2580
12/21/2015
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the truthseeker wrote:
No, look again.
Regular Successes, Rare Successes, Total Successes. That is listing 171 Successful Attempts. It does not list the failures or total attempts. Since this is a Rare Success compilation only, this is why, and why I mentioned the number of iterations before as it won't list Total Attempts there. Please note these details next time should a newer person bring it up to you.
That may be true for other actions which have a possible Rare Success.
But there is no fail condition when converting Cryptic Clues into diamonds. There is no luck challenge involved.
It's just a straightforward action which always succeeds, which has a chance for a Rare Success.
The listed 171 successful attempts in the doc is also the number of total attempts.
The table in the doc lists:
- Regular Success: 160
- Rare Success: 11
- Total Successes: 171
- Rare Success %: 6.43%
My own numbers:
- Regular Success: 1069
- Rare Success: 61
- Total Successes: 1130
- Rare Success %: 5.4%
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+1
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Danko
Posts: 142
12/21/2015
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Hmm, if its ~2 EPA, doesn't this also make the diamonds the best available grind at the moment? I always thought they had ~1,5 EPA before.
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Sara Hysaro
Moderator
Posts: 4514
12/21/2015
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It's limited by your Cryptic Clue supply, and the truly grindable methods of getting those aren't quite as good as getting them through opportunity cards like A Visit or The Neath's Mysteries.
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+1
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dov
Posts: 2580
12/21/2015
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It's ~2 EPA assuming you already have the Cryptic Clues from other sources. If you need to grind for the CC, then EPA is lower.
EDIT: aaaaaand, of course Sara beat me to it :-)
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edited by dov on 12/21/2015
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Want a sip of Hesperidean Cider? Send me a request in-game. Here's an_ocelot's guide how.
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+1
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Danko
Posts: 142
12/21/2015
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Yep, I see now. The total PPA will be exactly 1.39 (4,33 actions for 6,019 E), assuming getting clues from unfinished business. However it's not uncommon to have 40k+ clues by endgame, so it's definitely worth noting!
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