Grenem
Posts: 2067
6/2/2016
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Skinnyman wrote:
snip, since i've got enough calculations to make this too long without reposting yours as well.
I think you're double-counting the favor- both as the action it takes to get it and what it could sell for otherwise. I counted it by sell-price, and ignored the highest paying option- because it's pretty low once you factor in the value of the actions to cash in.
I'm treating it as: 5 docks favors (best echo value for cash in, higher gets diminishing returns- though it doesn't cost as many actions) are 18.1 echoes.
250 rostygold is 2.5 echoes.
Buccaneering approach costs 5 favors- and 5 actions- to get supplies, and then 10 to run the expedition, treating the favors as "bought" for calculation purposes, and therefore no more part of the action count than wherever you're getting rostygold from.
this makes the epa (55.59-(18.1+2.5))/15 = 34.99/15 = 2.33 epa.
or, with the mere bold approach, 35.99/18 = 1.995 epa.
Hence, my numbers.
Factoring in what i ignored- the certain one progress for 0 supplies:
4.75 docks favors, instead of 5. favors cost: 18.1*4.75/5 = 17.195 echoes
237.5 rostygold, instead of 250. so 2.375 echoes
subtract one-quarter action from the divisor.
(55.59-(17.195+2.375)) = echoes profit = 36.02 echoes profit
36.02/14.75 = 2.44 EpA
36.02/17.75 = 2.02 EpA (actually rounds to 2.03, but i always round down.)
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or, if you treat it like the actions to get favors are a grind, not a purchase of opportunity cost. [which i don't, because with optimal selling manipulation they sell for 3.62 EpF, less one action per five- which still leaves it at 3.01 epa, and ignoring that opp cost leads to overestimating the grind's effectiveness: as shown below]
(55.59 - 2.38) = echoes profit.
Buckaneering
53.21/19.5 = 2.72
Bold
53.12/22.5 = 2.32
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You counted it twice, and that messed up your results.
Also, a better version of your tip: do the cautious approach on the second-to-last action. sooner, and you miss a chance to save 1 action point if you draw a sign, but later, and a sign saves you one supply rather than three.
edited by Grenem on 6/2/2016
--
Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
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Skinnyman
Posts: 2133
6/4/2016
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Grenem wrote:
..
You counted it twice, and that messed up your results.
...
Also, a better version of your tip: do the cautious approach on the second-to-last action. sooner, and you miss a chance to save 1 action point if you draw a sign, but later, and a sign saves you one supply rather than three.
Morning!
Hum, what did I counted twice? Sorry, but I'm still sleepy; lot of work this week and lot of work outside my regular job as well.
Did some rechecks (I think ) and:
Dock Favour best cash in is 2.88 which is best regarding AP as well.
Second-to-last = penultimate
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ESs items and quality requirements sheet. Please check if there are errors or if something is missing
Achievement list if you're feeling bored!
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Grenem
Posts: 2067
6/4/2016
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Skinnyman wrote:
Grenem wrote:
..
You counted it twice, and that messed up your results.
...
Also, a better version of your tip: do the cautious approach on the second-to-last action. sooner, and you miss a chance to save 1 action point if you draw a sign, but later, and a sign saves you one supply rather than three.
Morning!
Hum, what did I counted twice? Sorry, but I'm still sleepy; lot of work this week and lot of work outside my regular job as well.
Did some rechecks (I think) and:
Dock Favour best cash in is 2.88 which is best regarding AP as well.
Second-to-last = penultimate
You both counted the dock favor as an action taken and as what it would sell for otherwise. So the EpA is too low. Either one is valid, but you counted both, giving you the much lower numbers- after modifications- of 1.86 and 2.15. The actual numbers are either:
[counting docks favors as currency, worth 3.62 echoes, as per the widow card's 18.1 for 5: loop is 4.75 actions to buy supplies, 13/10 to do the expedition. expedition loops are 17.75 and 14.75 actions, profit is 55.59 - [3.62+.5]*4.75 = 55.59 - 19.57 = 36.02 echoes]: 2.02 and 2.44 epa
or
[counting docks favors as the actions to acquire them- not counting their echo value- making the loops 22.5 and 19.5, but the profit 55.59 - .5*4.75 = 54.21 echoes]: 2.32 and 2.72 epa
Both ignore the windfalls: the eyeless skull, if you don't use it for charity, the random bonus two info, and "A Sign", so the epa is higher than estimates.
(also, cashing in on conflict cards at 5 is more profitable. for the widow, it's 18.1/6, or 3.02 echoes. minus favor acquisition cost, though, as past that point each additional favor is only 2.5 echoes. OFC, it still could be worth cashing them in, but it reduces the epa.)
edited by Grenem on 6/4/2016
--
Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
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Grenem
Posts: 2067
6/4/2016
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Now, the alternative is the 10 supply expeditions. There haven't been as many calculations, but the consumed supplies are:
1 criminal favor: worth at most generous 4.8 less one action echoes. as such, i'll count it as -1 actions and 4.8 echoes.
9 expedition supplies: 2.25 docks favors.
The actions consumed on the expedition with buccaneering: 2.25 to supply, 1 to enter, 3 to progress, 2 to exit. total: 8.25
The actions consumed on the expedition with bold: 2.25 to supply, 1 to enter, 5 to progress, 2 to exit. total: 10.25
The payout is:
100 cryptic clues.
4 echoes in glim, or 10 echoes in souls.
unpredictable treasure, 1-80:
if drop #40 is a horsehead amulet, 26.10 echoes payout on average.
if drop #40 is a wooden mask, 26.46 echoes payout on average.
Total payout with horsehead amulet: 32.10 echoes payout or 36.10 echoes payout.
Total payout with wooden mask: 32.46 echoes payout or 36.10 echoes payout.
Assuming worst case scenario, with no mitigation:
Docks and criminal favors are currency: (32.10- [2.25*4.12] - 4) = 18.83. epa = 18.83/[8.25 or 10.25]
Buccaneering = 2.28 epa
Bold = 1.83
or, if you do the crazy thing, where:
Docks and criminal favors = 1 action each. 3.25 actions added to total.
32.10 - 2.25 *.5 = 30.97. epa = 30.97/[11.5 or 13.5]
Buccaneering = 2.69 epa
Bold = 2.29 epa.
In short, the 10 supply ones are generally inferior, unless there's something better or i dramatically overestimated the value of criminal favors: Spoiler- I did.
That said, once you factor in the ~one-in-three chance as that, the payout increases to:
20.03/[7.25 or 9.25]
Buccaneering = 2.76 [2.64 if a criminal favor is worth three echoes, 2.58 if a criminal favor is worth 3.5 echoes]
Bold = 2.16
Though... if i need to factor that in, i need to factor in the ~10% chance of eyeless skulls too. Ignoring bold- pretty clearly better on the long loop, or close enough to count.
so 55.59*0.9 + 65*0.1 = 56.53, or 0.94 more echoes per loop.
And i might as well factor in the odds of a rare success on initialization, too- the estimates are 19%, and it reduces the supplies by two and the actions per loop by one. in other words, it reduces the favors per expedition by 0.09, and the actions by 0.19+0.09. making the actions per loop average 14.47 and 17.47. it also reduces the preparations by ~0.37 echoes per loop. By this calculation, the buccaneering epa is ~2.57, though i'm not altogether certain.
this means thieve's cache is better, at least if they aren't renown grinding or after a certain result, so long as they don't have a better use for favors than one for 4.8 echoes with an action.
edited by Grenem on 6/5/2016
--
Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
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Skinnyman
Posts: 2133
6/5/2016
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Oh, I see what you're talking about!
But I counted the AP used to get the Favours. Did that when cashing them in using conflict card which yielded a Favour at 2.88 or something. Can't remember which card and I admit I'm to lazy to do a search; to damn tired!
Both options are valid, but it depends on how player wish to value them.
Cheers!
--
ESs items and quality requirements sheet. Please check if there are errors or if something is missing
Achievement list if you're feeling bored!
I am accepting Plant battles, Neath's Mysteries card, Starveling Cats and boxed cats.
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knguy
Posts: 70
6/8/2016
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I've been a POSI for a long time now. I'm a late stage Shadowy/Persuasive person who still doesn't have other skills at even 90. I'm a Crooked-Cross, all equipment I wear gives 1 BDR each, and I even have all POSI slots filled. I am shooting for a Yacht and Bazaar Premises next after I buy all the top-quality equipment. Who needs Moods when you've got +40 on everything?
But I have never used a single Second Chance (great CP, great gift. thanks, Hedonist 10) or any Menace draughts save for two Absolutions I got for free. To nobody's surprise they had minimal effect. I basically didn't buy any of them but I still have tinctures and half-tinctures sitting around from past activities.
I have a few questions concerning my future.
Learning the Correspondence? Obviously worthwhile. But should I ever consider expeditions over 26E/13 actions? I literally don't even know how they work yet. What about some Dangerous hunting for the Labyrinth? Is it fun in any sort of sense?
Should I start using second chances instead of ~25 CP cash in? Will I ever need serious Menace control later on despite the two connections opportunities and CtD? I rarely call upon acquaintances for help unless I've spent too much time in the zee. My Scandal and Suspicion are the only ones that go up normally, staying at 2-3 on average. And I do 90% cash challenges quite often.
Also, I haven't died, ever. Will I ever need to die for any reason aside from chess and the Ambition I don't have?
I'll take all the tips you have. Thanks!
EDIT: Naturally I'm also planning on becoming an Invisible Eminence with 215 Shadowy after I deal with whatever that irrigo business is. In total I have 16 BDR and I expect 20 once my Unterzee vacations become more frequent. At this point should I start building up the smaller MW grinds and parties or go for the Salon and see if I can drown in popularity?
edited by knguy on 6/8/2016
--
"Knguy" - a rich, well connected, and steadfast gentleman. Terribly indulgent. Cunningly charming. Prone to zeezickness.
"No CP waste."
Have mysteries or need to gain second chances? Send me requests! High Shadowy/Persuasive. (yes, I loiter)
Nightmares/Suspicion woes? Stop hesitating! Let me know and I'll take care of those issues!
I am a Crooked-Cross! Invite me to your Salon.
Convenient wikia link
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Grenem
Posts: 2067
6/8/2016
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knguy wrote:
I've been a POSI for a long time now. I'm a late stage Shadowy/Persuasive person who still doesn't have other skills at even 90. I'm a Crooked-Cross, all equipment I wear gives 1 BDR each, and I even have all POSI slots filled. I am shooting for a Yacht and Bazaar Premises next after I buy all the top-quality equipment. Who needs Moods when you've got +40 on everything?
But I have never used a single Second Chance (great CP, great gift. thanks, Hedonist 10) or any Menace draughts save for two Absolutions I got for free. To nobody's surprise they had minimal effect. I basically didn't buy any of them but I still have tinctures and half-tinctures sitting around from past activities.
I have a few questions concerning my future.
Learning the Correspondence? Obviously worthwhile. But should I ever consider expeditions over 26E/13 actions? I literally don't even know how they work yet. What about some Dangerous hunting for the Labyrinth? Is it fun in any sort of sense?
Should I start using second chances instead of ~25 CP cash in? Will I ever need serious Menace control later on despite the two connections opportunities and CtD? I rarely call upon acquaintances for help unless I've spent too much time in the zee. My Scandal and Suspicion are the only ones that go up normally, staying at 2-3 on average. And I do 90% cash challenges quite often.
Also, I haven't died, ever. Will I ever need to die for any reason aside from chess and the Ambition I don't have?
I'll take all the tips you have. Thanks!
Expeditions can have great EpA if you do them using exclusively docks favors with high watchful, but until then, the main reason is because constant grinding is really dull and they are needed to move onto the next storyline, and the storylines are interesting. The expeditions, when done properly using docks favors, can have EpA as high as 2.02 epa for bold approach and, for people with unnaturally high watchful [265, i believe], 2.44 epa. of course, this is card-based, as you need 5 favors per expedition, and it is unreliable- as the expedition payouts take a random form and value within a range, and there are peak and pathetic payouts- but I am factoring in the next best use for docks favors, so that is accurate epa compared to the next best use.
[also, 2 epa is pretty much either a myth, miscalculation, dropping steps, or highly card-reliant, and either way not a thing that is reliable. the best cards-free grinds in london tend towards about 1.8 epa, i believe.]
--
Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
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Skinnyman
Posts: 2133
6/14/2016
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I keep forgetting, but wanted to add that if you get an Eyeless skull from an expedition, the exit costs 1 AP, not 2. So getting one and cashing it in doesn't increase the AP required for an expedition.
--
ESs items and quality requirements sheet. Please check if there are errors or if something is missing
Achievement list if you're feeling bored!
I am accepting Plant battles, Neath's Mysteries card, Starveling Cats and boxed cats.
No suppers, no second chances gain and no need to cure my menaces!
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Sinnouk
Posts: 62
6/26/2016
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Is Going over the spoils the best non-fate option of A Rainbow of Offerings? What is the best source for Inkling of Identity? Thank you.
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Theron Bidwell Urie: the Distrait Dabbler, hat-less unfortunate no more!
gronostaj wrote:
If the Implacable Detective Wins…
I go to jail! And you go to jail! And you go to jail, yes, you too! Everyone goes to jail!
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th8827
Posts: 823
6/26/2016
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Going over the Spoils gives you most of what you need for a ship, so it is the most useful. Although in the long run, you will make plenty of all of those items, so it is not mandatory. Still, it will save a lot of time if you want to go Zailing.
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Gone NORTH. It's nice here.
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Grenem
Posts: 2067
6/26/2016
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Skinnyman wrote:
I keep forgetting, but wanted to add that if you get an Eyeless skull from an expedition, the exit costs 1 AP, not 2. So getting one and cashing it in doesn't increase the AP required for an expedition.
Yeah, but it doesn't reduce it either. I can't speak for others, but i haven't been changing the actions for an eyeless skull.
--
Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
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Grenem
Posts: 2067
6/26/2016
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Sinnouk wrote:
Is Going over the spoils the best non-fate option of A Rainbow of Offerings? What is the best source for Inkling of Identity? Thank you.
Generally, Going over the spoils is the most immediately useful, and unquestionably one of the best payouts.
The best source of inklings of identity is probably up-crafting proscribed materials, if you have a nice stockpile. If you have a tolerable stockpile of candles, the "return with a mirror" option on the usually useless palace cellars card is able to provide 31 and some trinkets for 250 candle stubs. A good source of proscribed material is the "calling in favors in the flit" card- use it for revolutionaries and get nearly 720 proscribed materials in one go- almost enough to make 315 inklings of identity by upcrafting.
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Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
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Morkan Kassington
Posts: 261
6/29/2016
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I am actually a step or two away from being eligible for PoSI (just need to get to the Labyrinth), Loitering only harms MW and Connected: Society only, right? No extra problems for PoSI?
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Ladies of the Neath, here comes Morkan Kassington, the gem among gentlemen
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absimiliard
Posts: 759
6/29/2016
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Yup. If you don't care about MW or Society -- like me -- then you can loiter to your heart's content. I figure once I had enough notability for my profession I was done, and since then I've discovered I was pretty much entirely right about that.
(Oh, if you're gonna be a loitering PoSI, then we really ought to talk more, I need a partner to loiter with, most of my PoSI friends are MW or Society chasers.)
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"Because, Parabola!" -- the Curious Captain
Eating nightmares from friends -- and I'm easy to befriend.
Absimiliard: the Black Rose of Wolfstack Docks
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Fincar
Posts: 41
6/29/2016
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Welll you do need Society to start a Salon (though the main use of a salon is MW so...) and notabiity 5 at the very least to get your tier 2 and tier 3 profession, that said it is fairly easy to farm Society specially if you still have access to the empress court.
Other than that you will have some troubles getting some of the late game stuff like upgrading your lodging to a 5 card lodgings (then again 5 card lodgings are more easly obtained at christmas but you still need 3 notability minimum).
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A person of some little importance... really
I am open to most forms of social interactions.
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th8827
Posts: 823
6/30/2016
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After 4 months of saving up Trade Secrets, I finally got a Classic Short Story!
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/th8827
Gone NORTH. It's nice here.
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Luminen Walker
Posts: 172
7/18/2016
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Does anyone have any advice regarding ways of gaining scandal for someone at the persuasive cap? I need to go to the Tomb Colonies and I'm having trouble remembering how I got there last time I did what I'm doing.
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1 - Cpt. Martin Walker, a Paramount and Marvellous Dreamer.
2 - Ariana Crivelli, a silent and sagacious lady.
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Parelle
Posts: 1084
7/18/2016
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TeslaWalker wrote:
Does anyone have any advice regarding ways of gaining scandal for someone at the persuasive cap? I need to go to the Tomb Colonies and I'm having trouble remembering how I got there last time I did what I'm doing.
- If you're at 0 Scandal, go ahead and do the on-off gain a freebie point of scandal by putting on and then removing your modish bonnet or scarlet stockings. With both of those equipped, you're aiming at Scandal 6 at least.
- Help the Rubberies! On their card you can either gain a favor for amber or for free with some attached scandal. Very handy.
- City Vices: a Decadent Evening gains scandal (and Making Waves, helpfully)
- If you're at Hedonist 12, you can kiss your head of John the Baptist goodbye for an auto trip to the TCs.
That said, in detail, there are some notes on taking a trip to the Tomb Colonies in this compilation by Grenem: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
--
Parelle, Lady Joseph Marlen. The Singular Librarian. A Midnighter, a Player of the Marvelous.
pages from a dusty bookshop: a badly updated FL changelog | Useful Guidance and Explanations
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Wiwo
Posts: 365
9/21/2016
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TeslaWalker wrote:
Does anyone have any advice regarding ways of gaining scandal for someone at the persuasive cap? I need to go to the Tomb Colonies and I'm having trouble remembering how I got there last time I did what I'm doing.
Spend a ton of fate on Flute Street and a Boneless Consort and gain access to a reliable source of Sudden Insights (meh), an instant (and repeatable if desired) trip to the Tomb-Colonies, and a profitable way to convert Deep Amber to Trembling Amber as well as the best spousal BDR out there.
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Wiwo. Almost certainly not a squid in a cunningly tailored suit. Surely.
 Care for some cider? Here's how to ask me for some. Strange pranks strongly preferred.
Care to pet a Heptagoat? Too bad. It doesn't do anything (probably).
I'm a Correspondent and would be delighted to lecture at your orphanage.
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Tozh Taurog
Posts: 114
9/21/2016
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Another brand-new POSI here - as of yesterday. *Curtsies*. Ink still wet on paperwork, velocipede still squeaky new (rather precarious contraption, i must say). I'm a bit shell shocked by everything happening at once and confused on where to go.
I also happened to just get the route for the Nadir recently and was planning to go as soon as I scrounge up resources for the cinder - got everything else already, including a skull with associated cards (groan). But now with all the new POSI expenses on top, cinder seems even further away. I've been pounding the pavement in the Forgotten Quarter for a while, but the luck for enough extra skulls isn't quite there for me.
So. Now I have the Nadir option burning me with skull cards, and all the POSI options opening ahead, and I really want better lodgings, and a Zubmarine - but for now I figured better a steamer than no ship at all, so I can go zailing! And I still need to raise up lagging Shadowy and Dangerous stats, but I can't, because - skull. For now the talkative rattus and other gear still helps me get rid of those two of the cards, so i'm just stuck with Watchful and Persuasive. Which renders my 3-card lodgings a bit less than optimally useful. The only respite I've had recently was going insane in nice, quiet Mirror Marches with lovely scenery and empty hand. 
What to do? Where to run? What to grab and what to drop? And why does that Jewel Thief think I have time or energy for his attentions *now* of all the times? I'm being assassinated, for crying out loud!
P.S. Speaking of Turks in the OP - has this been mentioned yet: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuW_T3RP1TE ?
edited by Tozh Taurog on 9/21/2016
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A Correspondent. Thrilled to advance science by educating the younger generation at your Orphanage. A Marvellous player. Willing to talk about it to the press. An amateur horticulturist.
Usually up for socializing, especially with text.
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