John Savage
Posts: 198
11/21/2015
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From my (admittedly limited) experiences, second chances usually end one of two ways.... I fail both checks so get no where... or I succeed on the first check and lose the second chance anyway.... rarely does the second chance seem to ACTUALLY work as intended....
So I have been wondering if the math works in my favor, or against me... has anyone run any stats on this?
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If at first you don't succeed, shoot it again.
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/John~Savage
Scandal and suspicion! Suspicion and scandal! I miss the old days when only blood mattered.
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th8827
Posts: 823
11/21/2015
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Some of the higher level challenges have stiff penalties, so it lets you try multiple times with only one punishment for failure.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/th8827
Gone NORTH. It's nice here.
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Guy Scrum
Posts: 197
11/21/2015
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If your chance of success without a second chance is P, then your chance of success with a second chance is 1 - (1-P)*(1-P). So, for example, if you have a 90% chance of success then a second chance will increase it to a 99% chance of success, and if you have a 50% chance of success the second chance will increase it to a 75% chance of success. If you have spare second chances, you might as well use them.
edited by Guy Scrum on 11/21/2015
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Guy%20Scrum
Interactive fidgeting writer simulation
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+7
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Guest
11/21/2015
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When you need to make a check and it gets to below 50% and there are penalties, it's best to use them at that point for example. However, if hesitant, you can always back out via "perhaps not" should yu not want to try the second attempt. However, they now are making the SC go up exponentially should you do that until you have a final success or failure.
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Lady Sapho Byron
Posts: 770
11/21/2015
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Nerds out on Guy Scrum's probabilities. Also, if you fail the first check you can bail out of the attempt without suffering the consequences of failing the test altogether (i.e., stat or gear loss).
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http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/Lady%20Sapho%20L%20Byron
Fighting the Menace of Corsetry Since 1892.
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+1
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Sestina Valdis
Posts: 210
11/21/2015
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You probably already know this, but note that you can use them to boost stats too, though. That can be very useful! I guess it's a question of which one is more useful in the long run. And there are other assorted uses too, of course, which I won't go into detail about, e.g. Nadir stuff.
edited by Sestina Valdis on 11/21/2015
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Sestina Valdis, the Saccharine Satirist.
Appearance and Misc. Accoutrements
A Past Scattered Across Discarded Stockings
Fei Xue, the Artful Assassin.
Self
Edward de Riere, the Barebones Baron.
Avatar by Daniel Ilinca.
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+3
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Guest
11/21/2015
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Lady Sapho Byron wrote:
Nerds out on Guy Scrum's probabilities. Also, if you fail the first check you can bail out of the attempt without suffering the consequences of failing the test altogether (i.e., stat or gear loss).
But just remember my previous reply:
From now on, if you fail and "perhaps not" exit, the number of second chances required for a future check on that specific storyette goes up exponentially. So it's only 1, then 2, then 4, 8, 16...etc.
So no more "mining for successes."
This ends once you ultimately fail or succeed on a story.
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John Savage
Posts: 198
11/21/2015
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Guy Scrum wrote:
If your chance of success without a second chance is P, then your chance of success with a second chance is 1 - (1-P)*(1-P). So, for example, if you have a 90% chance of success then a second chance will increase it to a 99% chance of success, and if you have a 50% chance of success the second chance will increase it to a 75% chance of success. If you have spare second chances, you might as well use them.
edited by Guy Scrum on 11/21/2015
Nice... thanks..... it's just that I usually don't have EXTRA second chances.... they are still reasonably rare for me (except the "chasing a lady's hat" mini-grind a few days ago for Confident Smiles).... so I was wondering if it made more sense to save them for stat increases....
Now I have something more to work with, numbers-wise... so I can get a better feel for it.
Thanks again!
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If at first you don't succeed, shoot it again.
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/John~Savage
Scandal and suspicion! Suspicion and scandal! I miss the old days when only blood mattered.
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malthaussen
Posts: 1060
11/21/2015
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I use them all the time, for a variety of purposes, but I also devote quite a few actions every day to social pursuits. If your character prefers to be mostly solitary, then the SCs are rarer, and thus more valuable just for that. I'd use them when a challenge is important to advance a story, and not promiscuously in any event. Most of the challenges at the lower levels don't carry any associated penalty, so using SCs on them would seem to be frivolous, unless you want to succeed because it is a rare opportunity that you really want.
-- Mal
edited by malthaussen on 11/21/2015
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"Of two choices, I always take the third."
Will do all socials except Loitering or Private Evenings (all my Free Evenings are accounted for), and Affluent Photographer Betrayals only, please. I am not currently accepting calling cards.
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/malthaussen
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Lady Sapho Byron
Posts: 770
11/21/2015
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Second chances also make wonderful gifts.
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http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/Lady%20Sapho%20L%20Byron
Fighting the Menace of Corsetry Since 1892.
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