Gerald Edgerton
Posts: 127
10/15/2015
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I'm in the market for a ship. A very respectable ship.
I played a hand of Tiles and lost, despite passing both stat checks easily; passing the luck check looks to be potentially very expensive. I'm considering using Fate, but I don't like to use Fate to bypass difficult tasks; I used it to get a Destiny I like and do occasionally spring for menace reduction or special storylets, but I'd rather win a card game on skill and perseverance.
I have 10 stakes; Favours in High Places come easily to me as a Midnighter, but my scarcest resource is Comprehensive Bribes. I tend to spend a lot of Romantic Notions on Mr Wines in order to keep my Hedonist quirk high, so I didn't have a large reservoir of Romantic currency built up.
I should be set to play 5 hands, but am aware that the RNG could spit in my eye and cost me a lot. If you guys were setting out to beat that luck check, how many stakes would you come prepared to lose? I want to sit down at that table only one more time, if I can.
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Jeremy Avalon
Posts: 345
10/15/2015
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I spent the Fate on it, myself. I didn't like the idea of wiping out a day's worth of Echoes when there were other stories to follow up on and grinds to begin.
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How we must glow; yes, I bet we look like snow.
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Guest
10/24/2015
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After I almost hit myself because I had a 98% persuasive chance and succeeded the luck check but failed the persuasive check (I made sure I always had 100% from then on in both stat checks) and three failed luck attempts, I succeeded in my fifth attempt when I ran out of the rest of the resources if I wanted to continue. It looked life five was the right number for me.
To save days of additional grinding, I did buy a lot of honey with Echoes but it was worth it to learn what I needed to know. Since I have a Hedonist Alt who must have the yacht one day, I know the amounts I have to stock up and how long in a very similar fashion (she's currently a Writer, so she has the Cellars of Wine like I had the Favours in High places with my main.) While I realize it could take over a week to a week and a half to make sure I have enough resources for a likely success with pure grinding and no spending, I now know what is expected.
Thanks to all for their assistance!
Any anybody who is interested in the success results (besides viewing the text on truthseeker's journal,) I've spoilered it below:
[spoiler]
Yours!
You sit around the little baize table. The other players welcome you with guarded hunger. Their stakes, like yours, are stacked behind their chairs, transforming the cellar into a treasure-trove from a fairy tale.
You shuffle the tiles. They're made of ancient horse bone, smooth and long yellowed. You build the wall and begin. Play isn't just brisk, it's fiercely fast. It's no more than two minutes before Mr Apples declares 'Imperial Jade' and you lose a pile of amber the size of a dog.
The tiger racks up the most wins. Quick, dirty victories that annoy the former priest and don't actually contribute much to the tiger's fortunes. The night turns into morning, and night again. You play hand after hand.
You've lost track of time. You've been playing for days. Your world is a blur of tiles. Mr Apples has been doing badly. He keeps fishing for the moon at the bottom of the sea, and that's a fool's bet. Your stake is almost gone, too. You suggest a final hand. New stakes. You each stake your service for a year. Mr Apples stakes its ship. You pick your tiles and... Heaven's Bounty. Even Mr Apples can't believe it. It departs without a word. That's it. You have the finest ship afloat. And as it happens, a de-frocked priest and a tiger to add to the crew.
Persuasive is increasing...
You succeeded in a Persuasive challenge! (Simple challenges mean you don't learn so much.) [?]The higher the Quality, the higher the chance of success.
Watchful is increasing...
You succeeded in a Watchful challenge! (Simple challenges mean you don't learn so much.) [?]The higher the Quality, the higher the chance of success.
You were fortunate!
 Zailing the zeven zees.
An occurrence! Your 'An Explorer of the Unterzee' Quality is now The Captain!
 The journey is always better than the destination.
You now have 1 of this: 'Majestic Pleasure Yacht'
 On the lookout for a seaworthy vessel
Your 'Acquiring a Ship' Quality has gone!
You've lost 5 x Cellar of Wine (new total 1).
You've lost 5 x Favour in High Places (new total 13).
You've lost 5 x Comprehensive Bribe (new total 0).
[/spoiler]
edited by the truthseeker on 10/24/2015
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metasynthie
Posts: 645
10/15/2015
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I went in with enough to play five hands and won the second time. If you play five hands, you have a 77% chance of walking away with a yacht at some point, which felt safe enough to me. If you play 10 games, it's more like a 91% chance.
(That's based on the conservative estimate that the luck challenge is a 20% chance of success... it's probably actually higher.)
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Positively antique
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/metasynthie
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Gerald Edgerton
Posts: 127
11/11/2015
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I thought this might amuse some of you.
Stakes required to play: 5 (Favours, thousands of Amber, cellars of wine...)
Stakes ground: 20 (Midnighter payment, Ladybones gathering of the Great Game, that same unrelenting addict in Veilgarden and that same damnably easy card game)
Hands played when I got tired of waiting: 1
Stakes needed: 5
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Gerald Edgerton
Posts: 127
10/15/2015
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Thank you, everybody. I agree with you, Jeremy, but I find myself doing many things that, while not purely profitable, make me happy. For example, my character covets First City Coins at a value far above their market price.
Likewise, he's a career thief but explicitly an enemy of the Cheery Man, even though that closes certain options of interest, while opening little of interest other than an easier entry point into the Watcher's career path. Finally, I don't like to change my idea of his social caste, even though a remotely organized player's net worth will tend to rise rapidly. He wouldn't get a yacht through nepotism or delegation, but rather through shrewdness and grit. The hard road IS the road he would take.
Now, a Stiff Backed Young Lady cannot be met without Fate, so in such an instance I'm absolutely happy to pay up. But RP choices influence even my use of Fate.
Edit: I'll get up to 15 stakes and hope for the best.
edited by Gerald Edgerton on 10/15/2015
edited by Gerald Edgerton on 10/15/2015
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Guest
10/18/2015
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Sestina Valdis wrote:
NotaWalrus wrote:
the truthseeker wrote:
I'm in this boat (well trying to get into this boat) currently. best suggestions for getting Comprehensive bribes if I can't afford that Fate ccost?
I found the Fidgetting Writer quite useful due to its on-the-side profitability, but in terms of comperhensive-bribes-per-action it's probably a terrible idea
I used "Unfinished Business in Veilgarden" to grind honey with the "Doing the decent thing." option. The honey can then be converted into the items necessary to purchase a Comprehensive Bribe in the Side-streets. This is a bit grindy but "Doing the decent thing" offers a rather high chance for a special success that gives Stolen Kisses, which is good since you will also need Favours in High Places for the Pleasure Yacht.
Also, what option isn't grindy? =/
Alternatively, one could go to Polythreme, I suppose, but I am guessing that honey grinding is probably better in terms of actions. (Also since you have to pay quite a bit to go to Polythreme because you have no ship.)
Also, yes, sigh, the luck rolls tend to be horrid with this ship. It took me many weeks and about 5-7 failures, but when I finally got the yacht I found that it was, well, a very pleasurable experience.
edited by Sestina Valdis on 10/18/2015
edited by Sestina Valdis on 10/18/2015
I (the truthseeker main character) am a Midnighter Profession with a Tramp Steamer, so I'm fine on Favours in High Places, almost able to drown in them if not used for my Salon and occasional residence card drawn; I also got a small pile of Amber stockpiled (more than I thought,) so that should be taken care of as well Yachtwise-but I can still get more so I have a minimum 5-turns to attempt a successful luck check. Oh, I will need to grind some cellars of Wine, but that shouldn't be any issue.
Still, Polythreme isn't quick enough based on what I can grind while staying in FL (if it takes longer than needed after a day or two, I can always zail over there now we have an unlimited zailing deck.) When I'm finally ready for those checks, I'll remember to sell "ole reliable" first. (She will be missed.) The pre-seating costs also should be taken care of with no problem based ion my Masters ranking.
And I still have a tiny pile of Touching Love stories (about 54) unconverted, so that's taken care of.
However, the other components needed for the Comprehensive Bribes (Romantic Notions, Visions of the Surface) would work well with the Honey Grind. Since I see no better way (grindy or not) without risking losing other components (such as the Fidgeting Author,) I'll grind out what components remain needed. Since the other options are 15 honey less or only offer Fascinating on a rare Success (I still kept my court access for things like this,) I'll take the "occasionally extra" Stolen kisses with often more awarded (12-100 range, I often get an average of 61) Honey route. (It couldn't hurt an occasionally Wicked Salon Influence buildup anyway.)
Time to get to the grind (and this is also where I am glad I paid for an Exceptional Friendship as this will certainly take a lot of turns now.)
So my deep thanks for the suggestion and making me re-check my inventory stores to my pleasant surprise!
edited by the truthseeker on 10/18/2015
edited by the truthseeker on 10/18/2015
edited by the truthseeker on 10/19/2015
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Sestina Valdis
Posts: 210
10/18/2015
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Glad to hear that my suggestions were helpful for the both of you! (Or at least affirmed what you were already up to, heh.)
Also, Gerard, if you'd like to keep Shadowy your highest for RP (I understand; my char has Persuasive highest for the same reason), there's a Shadowy option in Mahogany Hall that pays a pretty good amount of Amber (I think 112 per action). "Work for Jasper and Frank"--> "Fire Raising."
All the best for the yacht!
edited by Sestina Valdis on 10/18/2015
--
Sestina Valdis, the Saccharine Satirist.
Appearance and Misc. Accoutrements
A Past Scattered Across Discarded Stockings
Fei Xue, the Artful Assassin.
Self
Edward de Riere, the Barebones Baron.
Avatar by Daniel Ilinca.
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Guest
10/19/2015
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Indeed thanks again! I hoped I would be able to get close to buying Bribes by the end of today with EF turns, but I still came up short. But a heckofa lot further thanks to me not putzing around with the Fidgeting Author this time! I'm sure in a day or two I'll be ready to make the attempt. Any suggestions on how many total items I should stockpile for a minimum 5 yacht attempts including a buffer if needed?
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Optimatum
Posts: 3666
10/19/2015
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All the items are fairly useful in other circumstances, so I'd say overpreparing would be a good idea.
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Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.
 Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi!
PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
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NotaWalrus
Posts: 221
10/20/2015
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the truthseeker wrote:
Optimatum wrote:
All the items are fairly useful in other circumstances, so I'd say over preparing would be a good idea.
Respectfully, well duhhh!
What I was asking Sestina Valdis and others was a surplus range suggested since this is my first Yacht attempt.
For instance, I have-at the time of this reply with my expenditure of about 40 turns this cycle of Exceptional Friendship-created two Comprehensive Bribes. I plan to stockpile enough components for about five attempts (and therefore create five CB at least.) Is that a good range? if not, how many (on average, since this is an odds are strongly against you luck check) times should I build to stockpile? What range of other non-CB components (Cellars of wine, Amber, etc.) should I sit down with if I don't want to immediately grind for another attempt?
Assuming the odds are 1 in 5, then the chance of failing is given by (0.8)^n, where n is the number of attempts, plug that into a calculator for several values of n until you like the look of you odds, and stockpile enough for that.
--
http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/NotaWalrus
Ignacious, the Fluid Professor, he will accept most social invitations, including boxed cats and affluent photographers (but only betrayals), though he is absent-minded and might take more time than entirely necessary. He apologizes.
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lady ciel
Posts: 2548
10/20/2015
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Very hard to give a specific number as it is a luck check - for me it was third time lucky but I have heard of people winning on their first attempt and there was a recent post on the Commiseration: Our most painful failures thread where someone had lost at least 10 times.
So it is up to you how many attempts you prepare for and if you think it is worth spending fate rather than having another failure.
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ciel
Sorry RL means I am not a very active player at the moment. No social actions unless you are prepared to wait and definitely no sparring or other mult-action things.
No Calling Cards or boxed cats please. Will take dupes on the affluent photographers. Other social invitations welcome. Parabolan Kittens usually available, send me an in-game social action saying you want one and I will get one to you as soon as possible.
storynexus name - reveurciel
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Sestina Valdis
Posts: 210
10/20/2015
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Lady Ciel is right. In light of the luck-based nature of the whole endeavour, I was living my yacht routine week by week. This was also because I didn't grind wine, but obtained it weekly as part of the Author's payment. So I basically used the time between professional payments each week to grind the other items (Favours in High Places, Amber and Comprehensive Bribes) to replace the one's I'd lost. It took me about 6-7 weeks total to get the yacht, but as Ciel says, it's completely probability-based. So perhaps that statistical model is really the only way of predicting things.
When I got the yacht, I suddenly felt as if my life lacked purpose and the comfortable order of a routine... =/
edited by Sestina Valdis on 10/20/2015
edited by Sestina Valdis on 10/20/2015
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Sestina Valdis, the Saccharine Satirist.
Appearance and Misc. Accoutrements
A Past Scattered Across Discarded Stockings
Fei Xue, the Artful Assassin.
Self
Edward de Riere, the Barebones Baron.
Avatar by Daniel Ilinca.
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Sestina Valdis
Posts: 210
10/21/2015
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Optimatum wrote:
If your life lacks purpose after finishing the Yacht or Zubmarine grind, just go plug away at the Affair of the Box! It's a good source of some higher-tier items and one of the most profitable endeavors in the game. And with the Hesperidian Cider and Heptagoat out there, I can promise you'll be occupied for quite a while :P
That's a good suggestion! I'm currently training my other stats now-- Dangerous in particular-- and I will get to Affair (again) after I am able to breed beasts. My life did lose purpose, but I found it again very quickly... I did not know Affair was so profitable, but I will take note. I was planning to get my Shadowy up after my Persuasive is maxed for PoSI spec.
Indeed, I am going after the goat... Hopefully this sundry author does not regret tampering with caprine authority.
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Sestina Valdis, the Saccharine Satirist.
Appearance and Misc. Accoutrements
A Past Scattered Across Discarded Stockings
Fei Xue, the Artful Assassin.
Self
Edward de Riere, the Barebones Baron.
Avatar by Daniel Ilinca.
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Optimatum
Posts: 3666
10/21/2015
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I believe that the Affair is about 1.66 Echoes Per Action when getting Mourning Candles as the reward. The Fidgeting Writer is also highly profitable but much more luck-based (and in my opinion harder, since it needs so many more storylets and items). The Fate-locked expeditions are possibly the most profitable repeatable actions in the game but of course cost Fate each time. (For example I did the Gallery of Serpents several times and all but one time got two Elemental Secrets, aka 625 echoes for definitely under 100 actions, not counting the Uncanny Incanabula if you keep them.)
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Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.
Want a sip of Cider? Just say hi!
PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
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Gerald Edgerton
Posts: 127
10/18/2015
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Sestina, I acquire Comprehensive Bribes precisely as you describe. Unfinished Business in Veilgarden is also helpful in locating the quantity of Amber I need for my stake. 
Truthseeker, I acquire Favours in High Places precisely as you describe. It's funny, my pay wasn't that much lower as an Agent but having these Favours is a wonderful avoidance of a lot of grinding.
I'm still only at 11 Bribes (total, not in excess of the 5 required to sit down in Wolfstack Docks). I took a couple days off to eavesdrop in Spite, since for RP purposes I try to keep Shadowy above the rest of my stats, and acquiring huge quantities of wine (in order not to let the Portly Sommelier get away) as well as honey (for all these Bribes!) has drifted me rapidly in the direction of Persuasive/Watchfulness. Shadowy pays very well as a stat, but a lot of personal advancement options definitely lean more towards Persuasive. On the bright side, Glim and Secrets are nice to have on hand for serious expeditioners.
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Sara Hysaro
Moderator
Posts: 4514
10/15/2015
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I think I brought enough stakes to gamble 10 times back when I did it. The RNG can still be especially awful, but that should generally be pretty safe.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Sara%20Hysaro
Please do not send SMEN, cat boxes, or Affluent Reporter requests. All other social actions are welcome.
Are you a Scarlet Saint? Send a message my way to be added to the list.
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NotaWalrus
Posts: 221
10/16/2015
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Gerald Edgerton wrote:
Thank you, everybody. I agree with you, Jeremy, but I find myself doing many things that, while not purely profitable, make me happy. For example, my character covets First City Coins at a value far above their market price.
Likewise, he's a career thief but explicitly an enemy of the Cheery Man, even though that closes certain options of interest, while opening little of interest other than an easier entry point into the Watcher's career path. Finally, I don't like to change my idea of his social caste, even though a remotely organized player's net worth will tend to rise rapidly. He wouldn't get a yacht through nepotism or delegation, but rather through shrewdness and grit. The hard road IS the road he would take.
Now, a Stiff Backed Young Lady cannot be met without Fate, so in such an instance I'm absolutely happy to pay up. But RP choices influence even my use of Fate.
Edit: I'll get up to 15 stakes and hope for the best.
edited by Gerald Edgerton on 10/15/2015
edited by Gerald Edgerton on 10/15/2015
Quick calculation says that should give you a 96.5% chance of success, in case you didn't know that already.
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http://fallenlondon.com/Profile/NotaWalrus
Ignacious, the Fluid Professor, he will accept most social invitations, including boxed cats and affluent photographers (but only betrayals), though he is absent-minded and might take more time than entirely necessary. He apologizes.
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Sestina Valdis
Posts: 210
10/18/2015
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NotaWalrus wrote:
the truthseeker wrote:
I'm in this boat (well trying to get into this boat) currently. best suggestions for getting Comprehensive bribes if I can't afford that Fate ccost?
I found the Fidgetting Writer quite useful due to its on-the-side profitability, but in terms of comperhensive-bribes-per-action it's probably a terrible idea
I used "Unfinished Business in Veilgarden" to grind honey with the "Doing the decent thing." option. The honey can then be converted into the items necessary to purchase a Comprehensive Bribe in the Side-streets. This is a bit grindy but "Doing the decent thing" offers a rather high chance for a special success that gives Stolen Kisses, which is good since you will also need Favours in High Places for the Pleasure Yacht.
Also, what option isn't grindy? =/
Alternatively, one could go to Polythreme, I suppose, but I am guessing that honey grinding is probably better in terms of actions. (Also since you have to pay quite a bit to go to Polythreme because you have no ship.)
Also, yes, sigh, the luck rolls tend to be horrid with this ship. It took me many weeks and about 5-7 failures, but when I finally got the yacht I found that it was, well, a very pleasurable experience.
edited by Sestina Valdis on 10/18/2015
edited by Sestina Valdis on 10/18/2015
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Sestina Valdis, the Saccharine Satirist.
Appearance and Misc. Accoutrements
A Past Scattered Across Discarded Stockings
Fei Xue, the Artful Assassin.
Self
Edward de Riere, the Barebones Baron.
Avatar by Daniel Ilinca.
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Dr Cop
Posts: 38
10/25/2015
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One small recommendation:
If you convert all of your comprehensive bribes upfront, you're going to be burning through a lot of extra echoes if you get lucky and win early. And there aren't *that* many uses for comphrensive bribes in the late game; if you end up with 10-15 spares, you certainly won't be using them.
So grind up the raw materials, and then convert them at the sidestreets before each new attempt.
(Or you could try to invoke Murphy's law by converting a bunch at a time. After ~15 losses doing it the 'right' way, overstocking on comprehensive bribes worked for me!)
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fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/hawkinsssable
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Dr Cop
Posts: 38
10/26/2015
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There's a bunch of research suggesting that people are extremely risk averse; we consistently prioritise avoiding losses over potential gains. (1 bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush, etc.) It's why it's psychologically so difficult to see the Fidgeting Writer all the way through, even though - with enough iterations - that's pretty reliably going to be the best strategy. (Unless you fool your brain by mass-converting one stage at a time, which makes each stage feel like much less of a gamble.)
When you fail a yacht-gamble and lose materials it cost you a day to grind, it stings. If you do this once per day, each day is going to feel like a defeat. If you play through a bunch at once (and if you're lucky enough to win one of those times), it feels like a victory rather than a loss.
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fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/hawkinsssable
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