dragonridingsorceress
Posts: 622
4/13/2015
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This post exists only as an expression of my frustration. I have been unluckier in Polythreme than I think I have been anywhere else in the Neath.
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DragonRidingSorceress is an Author of good standing. Mostly good standing. She's happy to accept any social action except Photographer and Loitering, but requests warnings before duping/poisoning/etc.
Seeker of Names is a... being with an obsession. They're willing to accept all invitations.
One who seeks to know all that is and may be. One who dances in the silence of the void. One whose fantasies make the reality come alive.
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MadmanAtW
Posts: 231
4/13/2015
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I sympathize. Over the weekend, on two separate occasions, I failed 10+ times in a row on a 50/50 chance. The RNG is a malevolent god.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Madman~Across~the~Water
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Xoricco
Accepting any social actions except the Affluent Photographer. Would appreciate warning of dupings/betrayals/rats.
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Sara Hysaro
Moderator
Posts: 4514
4/13/2015
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I've come to terms with the RNG on Polythreme. I expect the worst, so for the most part I can enjoy the atmosphere without getting frustrated. When I first went there, however? It was the first time in my Fallen London experiences that I had ever been so irritated, and I honestly can't remember getting as upset with any future events.
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http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Sara%20Hysaro
Please do not send SMEN, cat boxes, or Affluent Reporter requests. All other social actions are welcome.
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WormApotheote
Posts: 725
4/13/2015
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At least you get SOMETHING one failure?
Also on the topic of RNG pain, i recently acquired five lenses of black glass and failed on all of them >.<
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No, I don't pull the Eater of Names.
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Blaine Davidson
Posts: 388
4/15/2015
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WormApotheote wrote:
Also on the topic of RNG pain, i recently acquired five lenses of black glass and failed on all of them >.<
Dear God you poor thing, I completely and utterly sympathize.
edited by Blaine Davidson on 4/15/2015
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Blaine Davidson, a reserved and sensible woman with a fondness of collecting rarities.
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dov
Posts: 2580
4/15/2015
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WormApotheote wrote:
Also on the topic of RNG pain, i recently acquired five lenses of black glass and failed on all of them >.< I've begun to wonder if that last step in the Fidgeting Writer is worth it.
Looking through the lens means spending a Mourning Candle (2.5 echoes) for a 50% chance of earning a 312 echoes item.
So the expected return of this step is: (-2.5 * 0.5) + (309.5 * 0.5) = 153.5 echoes.
But smashing the lens means a guaranteed return of 150 echoes worth of items (which can also be useful for other things)
If you have 1000 black glass lenses, then, sure, the math says it's better to take the extra step because you can expect *on average* that each such conversion will net you 3.5 echoes more. But usually, after using up a massive amount of items and actions you'll probably have only a handful of lenses.
Unless you specifically love risks and gambles, the advantage of continuing is questionable. (e.g., if you convert 100 lenses, it's enough for the failure rate to be just 51% to erode that 3.5 echoes advantage)
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 Want a sip of Hesperidean Cider? Send me a request in-game. Here's an_ocelot's guide how.
(Most social actions are welcome. Please no requests to Loiter Suspiciously and no investigations of the Affluent Photographer)
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Grenem
Posts: 2067
4/15/2015
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dov wrote:
WormApotheote wrote:
Also on the topic of RNG pain, i recently acquired five lenses of black glass and failed on all of them >.< I've begun to wonder if that last step in the Fidgeting Writer is worth it.
Looking through the lens means spending a Mourning Candle (2.5 echoes) for a 50% chance of earning a 312 echoes item.
So the expected return of this step is: (-2.5 * 0.5) + (309.5 * 0.5) = 153.5 echoes.
But smashing the lens means a guaranteed return of 150 echoes worth of items (which can also be useful for other things)
If you have 1000 black glass lenses, then, sure, the math says it's better to take the extra step because you can expect *on average* that each such conversion will net you 3.5 echoes more. But usually, after using up a massive amount of items and actions you'll probably have only a handful of lenses.
Unless you specifically love risks and gambles, the advantage of continuing is questionable. (e.g., if you convert 100 lenses, it's enough for the failure rate to be just 51% to erode that 3.5 echoes advantage)
well, yeah, but it could go the other way, too- for the failure rate to be 49% for higher profit- and each outcome is as likely as the other. which is why averages exist.
nevertheless, if you don't like taking the gamble, don't. also, if you have a use for any of the items that makes you value them above sell price, don't.
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Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
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Nigel Overstreet
Posts: 1220
4/15/2015
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dov wrote:
Looking through the lens means spending a Mourning Candle (2.5 echoes) for a 50% chance of earning a 312 echoes item.
So the expected return of this step is: (-2.5 * 0.5) + (309.5 * 0.5) = 153.5 echoes.
312.5. Not 309.5. Meaning 155 Echoes.
At 50%, 1,000 Black Lenses and 100 Mourning Candles will get you either 500 Corruscating Souls worth 156,250 Echoes.
At 49%, it's 153,125.
The 1,000 Searing Enigmas(62.5,) 1,000 Primeval Hints(62.5,) 1,000 Bazaar Permits(12.5,) 1,000 comprehensive Bribes(12.5) and 1,000 Mourning Candles(2.5) are worth 152,500.
Even at 49%, you're better off looking through the lenses.
Over large numbers, conversion is definitely worth it. Over small numbers, it's a gamble.
I don't recommend The Fidgeting Writer in small doses.
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The Romantic Egotist: Most Hedonistic Man in All of Fallen London
Are you or someone you know Overgoated? Please, let me know!
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dov
Posts: 2580
4/15/2015
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It's actually 310 (312.5 for the Coruscating Soul, minus the 2.5 cost of the Mourning Candle). I wrote 309.5 because I thought incorrectly that the Soul is worth 312 (and not 312.5).
So: (-2.5 * 0.5) + (310 * 0.5) = 153.75 echoes
And I agree that it's worth it in really large numbers.
But even starting with 1000 Tales of Terror, you're only expected to have about 103 Lenses.
My point was that the last step (in reasonable quantities) is much more of a gamble then the rest of the steps (where the expected return is much higher than the reward for cashing in).
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Want a sip of Hesperidean Cider? Send me a request in-game. Here's an_ocelot's guide how.
(Most social actions are welcome. Please no requests to Loiter Suspiciously and no investigations of the Affluent Photographer)
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Nigel Overstreet
Posts: 1220
4/16/2015
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dov wrote:
But even starting with 1000 Tales of Terror, you're only expected to have about 103 Lenses.
I wouldn't recommend doing The Fidgeting Writer with only 1,000 Tales of Terror. You're more likely to end up with only 52 Lenses and 25 souls if all things are equal. With numbers that low, they usually aren't.
That few chances is going to provide more variance than most people are comfortable with. Me included.
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The Romantic Egotist: Most Hedonistic Man in All of Fallen London
Are you or someone you know Overgoated? Please, let me know!
Cider Club
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