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Fishing for PoSI Souls: Number Crunching

MartzelDePamplona Posts: 49 1/26/2015	TLR - Selling your soul through a fatelocked opp card and regaining through the Fisher Kings may be a viable grind, more numbers to follow. Early in Martzel's career he lost his soul to a Quiet Deviless, and recovered it via the Fisher Kings. After playing through a fate locked story, he found a new card in his deck that gave him the opportunity to sell his now much more important (PoSI) soul for the price of a 312.5 Echo Fabulous Diamond. After some thought and consideration, Martzel lost his soul, and regained it less than 2 days later through his urchin friends. Unfortunately, playing FL half asleep the next day he accidentally chose to shatter the diamond into 25 lesser diamonds. After further consideration, Martzel decided to see how many times he could get the devils to pay him a fabulous diamond for the same soul, recovering it through his adventures in the Flit. Another 3 days of fishing, and he looked at all the other items he had managed to fish up and began to wonder if this would be an effective Echo grind. And so, the number crunching began. First, the methodology. I drained my Urchin contacts to 0 before selling my soul this last time, and used "Talk Softly" under the same storylet as fishing to raise my connected Urchins quality. I flipped cards while doing this, but only played the ones that would raise urchin connections or lower suspicion. I also made sure my suspicion was at zero before starting. I wore no suspicion reducing clothes, mainly because I didn't think about it, and I used Instant Ablution to get rid of suspicion because I wanted to test the profitability of this method as a grind, trying to get resouled as quickly as possible, and thus not having to wait for social events to lower menaces. The trade off was a lower PPA, but not by too much. I drained urchin connections for the same reason: if you're doing this as a grind, then at some point that quality will hit 0 and need to be raised, which will increase your actions need to grind, decreasing the PPA. As a side note, Warm Amber is missing because I wrote down the wrong starting numbers for it, voiding the end result. It's hard to directly convert to cash anyway, so small loss. Obviously this only works for PoSI who have not stained their souls. Sorry, Seekers! If anyone sees blind spots or holes in my methodology, please let me know. I realize these numbers are not statistically significant, but I believe by the time i get my first overgoat they should give a relatively clear picture of the profitability of this grind. 2 diamonds down, 36 to go! Round 1 Final Numbers Actions:147 Urchin Connections:1 Suspicion Ablutions:5 ****** -4.50E Suspicion:4 Echoes:33.84 Items Change Silk Scrap:1 **** 0.01E Rat On A String:1 **** 0.01E Foxfire Candle Stubs:1 **** 0.01E Ragged Clothing:1 **** 0.01E Warm Amber:? Prisoner’s Honey:90 **** 1.80E Primordial Shrieks:556 **** 11.12E Proscribed Materiels:52 **** 2.08E Lamplighter Beeswax:1093 **** 10.93E Surface Silk scrap:122 **** 12.20E Starveling Cat:0 Appalling Secret:0 Tales of Terror:0 Devilbone Dice:1 **** 0.90E Compromising Documents:98 **** 49E Total Echoes Gain w/out price of Diamond: **** 83.57E PPA: (83.57/146) = 57.24ppa, or 0.5724 Echoes per action Total Echoes Gain with 312.5E Diamond: **** 396.07E PPA: (396.07/147) = 269.4ppa, or 2.694 Echoes per action** -- Martzel De Pamplona an inescapable, sagacious and magnificent gentleman. All social actions welcome.
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WormApotheote Posts: 725 1/26/2015	One trial isn't nearly enough, consdering most of the profitability comes from the diamond, so if you get your soul back faster than average or slower than average it'll massively skew the payout. (on a related note i believe the average should be 130/0.7 = 186 actions, so your numbers are high. Probably fairly significantly so if you're using Speak Softly to get urchins connections, because that's hardly the most efficient way.) I got estimated 2.36 echoes/action using a rookery password for urchins connections and Ablution to remove suspicion. Number might be slightly off because I made an error but it should still beat the affair of the box handily. (I mean, 1.68 is just the expected profit from the diamonds, not cuonting removing suspicon and getting urchin connections, which is already better) Also considered the Urchin/Widow conflict card as a source for connected but that adds even more randomness and is 3 actions for 45 connected: urchins points total--side with widow once and urchins twice--instead of the 75 from the ROokery Password, altho it costs nothing (in fact it yields nightmare reduction and a bit of jade) so I don't think it's better. edited by WormApotheote on 1/26/2015 -- No, I don't pull the Eater of Names.
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MartzelDePamplona Posts: 49 1/26/2015	As a point of curiosity, did you factor the cost of the rookery password and ablutions into your figures? 62.5E cost is kind of significant. And yes, I believe the number is high as well, I think the overall number will be closer to 200ppa/2Epa, but I needed to post something to make sure I didn't get bored with just running numbers and quit doing it before I hit my goal. I'll probably only update it every 5 runs or so, with an average PPA/EPA per run. I also posted it to get some feedback on the methodology. I will look into the rookery password, right now I just think 62.5E cuts too much into the profit to be worth it. -- Martzel De Pamplona an inescapable, sagacious and magnificent gentleman. All social actions welcome.
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RandomWalker Posts: 948 1/26/2015	The rookery password is cheaper than you think. You can sell the thing back when you're done grinding for 60 echoes. You're basically paying 2.5 echoes to rent it, with a 60 echo security deposit. edited by RandomWalker on 1/26/2015
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WormApotheote Posts: 725 1/27/2015	MartzelDePamplona wrote: As a point of curiosity, did you factor the cost of the rookery password and ablutions into your figures? 62.5E cost is kind of significant. And yes, I believe the number is high as well, I think the overall number will be closer to 200ppa/2Epa, but I needed to post something to make sure I didn't get bored with just running numbers and quit doing it before I hit my goal. I'll probably only update it every 5 runs or so, with an average PPA/EPA per run. I also posted it to get some feedback on the methodology. I will look into the rookery password, right now I just think 62.5E cuts too much into the profit to be worth it. A one time expense does not effect the average in the long term. The ablutions were included, as well as the cost of using a rookery password. (Though I'd need to rerun numbers if you want to know if its better to get rats from unfinished business or just buying them.) Actually wait I'll just do that now, because I think I made an error there anyway. (Assuming unfinished business for the cost calculations but forgot to include that action >.< Also I am assuming you buy the lizards for both versions.) Using 1 action (average) of unfinished business to get rats: 2.34 echoes/action. Buying rats from the bazaar: 2.35 echoes/action. You could also ask your friends to send you bags of rats which would be more reliable. -- No, I don't pull the Eater of Names.
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MartzelDePamplona Posts: 49 1/27/2015	Just started my 2nd tracked run using the Rookery Password. Didn't realize the Rookery Password was a one time expense, that definitely helps bring the average up over the long run because you are using 12 fewer actions to increase the urchins Connected. I'll probably post the average after my 5th run, and every 5 runs after that. Probably better to edit the first post for that, though. I'm keeping a detailed google doc of it at the moment, I'll turn that into a spreadsheet once I get more statistically significant numbers. If anyone else wants to contribute their numbers, I'd appreciate it. Just my running it will take a while to get a significant sample. So far I've been getting my soul back about once every 2-3 days, with another 1-5 days between picking up the opportunity card again. Makes it less of a grind, but also means it may take more time IRL for the same amount of Echoes. If you combined this with other kinds of Echo grinds, though, I'm thinking it will be very useful. We'll see. edited by MartzelDePamplona on 1/27/2015 -- Martzel De Pamplona an inescapable, sagacious and magnificent gentleman. All social actions welcome.
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Sara Hysaro Moderator Posts: 4514 1/27/2015	War of Assassins alongside this might be a good combo, since the Tomb-Colonist card is Standard instead of Unusual. If you're looking for stats the regular War of Assassins carousel would be best, but if you don't need stats you can build up Dramatic Tension via Doing Business in Wilmot's End because there's a chance of getting Compromising Documents. -- http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Sara%20Hysaro Please do not send SMEN, cat boxes, or Affluent Reporter requests. All other social actions are welcome. Are you a Scarlet Saint? Send a message my way to be added to the list.
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MartzelDePamplona Posts: 49 1/27/2015	Sara Hysaro wrote: War of Assassins alongside this might be a good combo, since the Tomb-Colonist card is Standard instead of Unusual. If you're looking for stats the regular War of Assassins carousel would be best, but if you don't need stats you can build up Dramatic Tension via Doing Business in Wilmot's End because there's a chance of getting Compromising Documents. Alternatively, using "Gather Urchin Informants" from War of Assassins could be used to keep your urchin connections around 20 in between soul fishing - 20 being the point where the luck chance is 50/50 and each result gives/costs 5cp each. -- Martzel De Pamplona an inescapable, sagacious and magnificent gentleman. All social actions welcome.
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WormApotheote Posts: 725 1/27/2015	Ideally I think supplementing it with Tomb Colonists and Affair of the Box or Fidgeting Writer would be your best bet. I don't think 5 cp per action will be better than the 25 cp per action from the Rookery Password, even without the cost. Also spending the urchin connections to get dramatic tension is counter productive because you get a lot better return from the soul grind once you need that. Also Failbetter realyl should make the connection increasing items more clearly say they're reuseable because it seems to be a very common misinterpretation. edited by WormApotheote on 1/27/2015 -- No, I don't pull the Eater of Names.
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Reshemin Posts: 226 1/27/2015	Obviously this only works for PoSI who have not stained their souls. Sorry, Seekers! We Are Not Sorry.
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lady ciel Posts: 2548 1/28/2015	Just did this with a shepherd alt (so they used the card to reduce suspicion when it got too high and would need to factor in that cost as well ... too much maths for me to work out whether that or Absolution Solution would be best) It took 177 actions including the one to reduce suspicion and the one to sell their soul. Items Silk Scrap:2 ****** 0.02E Rat On A String:2 **** 0.02E Foxfire Candle Stubs:2 **** 0.02E Ragged Clothing:2 **** 0.02E Prisoner’s Honey:70 **** 1.40E Primordial Shrieks:858 **** 17.16E Proscribed Materiels:287 **** 11.48E Lamplighter Beeswax:1485 **** 14.85E Surface Silk scrap:192 **** 19.20E Devilbone Dice:1 **** 0.90E Compromising Documents:183 ****** 91.5E 172.41 echoes of items Plus Warm Amber:14 (I suppose equivalent to 14 E if you use the Rubbery card to exchange Deep Amber but then you have to get the card and count those actions into the equation) so 186.41 echoes for 191 actions is just under 1 E an action including the diamond about 2.61 E an action also need to subtract the cost of reducing suspicion Disclaimer - absolutely no guarantees that my number crunching is completely accurate -- ciel Sorry RL means I am not a very active player at the moment. No social actions unless you are prepared to wait and definitely no sparring or other mult-action things. No Calling Cards or boxed cats please. Will take dupes on the affluent photographers. Other social invitations welcome. Parabolan Kittens usually available, send me an in-game social action saying you want one and I will get one to you as soon as possible. storynexus name - reveurciel
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RandomWalker Posts: 948 1/28/2015	Using the shepherd to clear suspicion is only cost effective when you have a LOT of menace. If you got 42 CP of suspicion (1 CP away from New Newgate, with -1 suspicion item equiped), you'd need on average 7.6 absolutions to clear it back to zero (each one does 1-10 CP of improvement, so average of 5.5 assuming even distribution). At 1.5 echoes per absolution, that's about 11.5 echoes, and 7.6 actions. As a counterpoint, the Sheperd card costs 30 echoes worth of items (mostly items that can't be farmed at a high efficiency) for a complete clear. So for the Shepherd to be useful, you need at least three menaces to be really high, or for you to be dealing with more annoying menaces (laudanum gives wounds, for example).
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lady ciel Posts: 2548 1/28/2015	That time they did have all four menaces pretty high. A combination of scandalous goings on with Bohemians; wandering the Forgotten Quarter and Gawping at Hyenas in the Labyrinth. The only menace they didn't have before starting this was suspicion Edit to say that I like to have some scandal and nightmares as there are cards I like to play that need them and I Gawp when my nightmares hit 5 so I don't meet a certain gentleman. When all three are high enough I use the Shepherd option but for some reason I don't seem to normally do anything that raises suspicion.. edited by reveurciel on 1/28/2015 -- ciel Sorry RL means I am not a very active player at the moment. No social actions unless you are prepared to wait and definitely no sparring or other mult-action things. No Calling Cards or boxed cats please. Will take dupes on the affluent photographers. Other social invitations welcome. Parabolan Kittens usually available, send me an in-game social action saying you want one and I will get one to you as soon as possible. storynexus name - reveurciel
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WormApotheote Posts: 725 1/29/2015	I did the math and I'd say it's less effective than Ablution for specifically suspicion reduction, but the other effects would make up for that if you're interested in them as well. -- No, I don't pull the Eater of Names.
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Erika Posts: 528 1/30/2015	Interesting that this thread was made 11 days after I added this grind to this page. I'm not claiming credit, I just find it interesting. In any case, Carlos and I took note of 190 bundles of oddities from this storylet and 177 Surprise Packages, considering both sets of data followed an even distribution, I think it's safe to assume (I'm not big into statistics) that bundles of oddities are completely random, likewise with item ranges. From the Unfinished Business ranges I've taken note on over 500 rat results (as well as others), again, random and even distribution. Following that both bundles of oddities and item ranges are random, that made the epa for this grind really easy to calculate. I can provide math and links to any of the above. For social actions, including sending a suspicion decrease back at you, I found it's 2.154epa. For Instant Ablution, I found 2.156epa. For buying rats, in both cases I found a 0.0003 decrease in epa. WormApotheote, I also found a small error in my previous set of calculations, I had previously thought the epa was 2.302. It's also worth mentioning that another part of the soul trade, the Spifirage side, unlocks a 1.74 epa option, trading Souls for Nevercold Brass in Ladybones Road. -- Where the sun is hot, the moon is beautiful, and mysterious lights pass overhead while we all pretend to sleep. Going on a fate expedition? I'm collecting data! Help me? "Bottles of Oblivion" drunk in the name of content: 57 Catboxes (send more!) opened in the name of science: 1093 Fancy a friend?
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MartzelDePamplona Posts: 49 1/30/2015	Cecil Palmer wrote: Interesting that this thread was made 11 days after I added this grind to this page. I'm not claiming credit, I just find it interesting. In any case, Carlos and I took note of 190 bundles of oddities from this storylet and 177 Surprise Packages, considering both sets of data followed an even distribution, I think it's safe to assume (I'm not big into statistics) that bundles of oddities are completely random, likewise with item ranges. From the Unfinished Business ranges I've taken note on over 500 rat results (as well as others), again, random and even distribution. Following that both bundles of oddities and item ranges are random, that made the epa for this grind really easy to calculate. I can provide math and links to any of the above. For social actions, including sending a suspicion decrease back at you, I found it's 2.154epa. For Instant Ablution, I found 2.156epa. For buying rats, in both cases I found a 0.0003 decrease in epa. WormApotheote, I also found a small error in my previous set of calculations, I had previously thought the epa was 2.302. It's also worth mentioning that another part of the soul trade, the Spifirage side, unlocks a 1.74 epa option, trading Souls for Nevercold Brass in Ladybones Road. That is interesting, lol. I got the idea around the new year - got some fate to spend on the story, then got the card and began considering. I posted about it in this topic, and then started thinking about whether it was actually a more profitable grind than things like the Affair of the Box or War of the Assassins. I prefer a larger sample size than 190, but if you want to put up the link to your math and figures I'd be interested. I'm still going to record my results and put them up, because I still have 509 diamonds to go - 584 if I decide to get an Ubergoat first - and I'm a firm believer in more data meaning better figures. Thanks for the calculations, I'm sure it will help anyone else who is considering the grind -- Martzel De Pamplona an inescapable, sagacious and magnificent gentleman. All social actions welcome.
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Sackville Posts: 295 1/30/2015	How much fate does it cost to sell your soul? I've done it before, but I've since zeroed out my Hell connections to get rid of those rather overly intimate devils so I haven't seen the card in a while. If you're making 2.6 epa and you can make around 1.7 normally then what you're paying fate for is 0.9 epa more than the usual over, it seems to be, about 180 actions. Which works out to buying around 162 echoes. That seems like a pretty good deal, depending on the fate cost of the action, if spending your money on echoes is a thing you want to do. Although I honestly don't know enough about the other options to say one way or the other. I'm pretty sure the Cheery Gentleman is wildly inefficient, but fate locked expeditions might be better?
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Sara Hysaro Moderator Posts: 4514 1/30/2015	After the initial 25 Fate to become involved in the Soul Trade you can sell your soul as many times as you'd like for no additional cost. -- http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Sara%20Hysaro Please do not send SMEN, cat boxes, or Affluent Reporter requests. All other social actions are welcome. Are you a Scarlet Saint? Send a message my way to be added to the list.
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Sackville Posts: 295 1/30/2015	Well never mind, then. I guess I was just getting the door to door devil option mixed up with Hallowmass.
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Erika Posts: 528 1/31/2015	MartzelDePamplona wrote: I prefer a larger sample size than 190, but if you want to put up the link to your math and figures I'd be interested. You're probably right, a sample size of larger than 190 would be better. As I said, I'm not big into statistics. 267, which is how many bundle results Carlos and I have recorded, being somewhat better. Besides, it'd be weird if bundles weren't a random & even distribution. Anyways, Fisher King results Surprise Package results (scroll down past the expeditions) Math: [spoiler] Since there's I'm assuming an even dist., all that needs to be done is multiply penniesbundle range, since bundle range=actions getting that result Likewise with ranges the resulting pennies would be (top range-bottom range)/2+bottom range. Something wretched: 43 Something warm: 750 (epa in half since another action must be used to turn the warm amber into deep amber) Something sweet: 1020 Something keening: 12120 Something to burn?: 15420 Something dark: 80.520 Something delicate: 1810.510 Something monstrous: 155 (I haven't included wounds/nightmares reduction) Something unexpected: 90 Something troublesome: 4.55030 All together (43+750+1020+12120+15420+80.520+1810.510+155+90+4.55030)/100=145.17* to turn pennies into echoes. Now for actions Total fishing+failures: 130/.7=185.71 Just failures (CP's of suspicion): 185.74-130=55.71 Suspicion via social actions incl. dealing with their suspicion: 55.74/4+55.74/16=17.42 How many times one would have to use a Rookery Password: 130/75=1.73 Actions using the Rookery Password: 1.73(3+1+9/11)=8.35 3 actions for using the the password, 1 action to get 1.2 echoes for the lizards and 90 rats out of avg. 110 per action via unfinished business. All together: (145.17+312.5)/(185.71+17.42+8.35+1)=2.154epa Alternatively using Ablution: (145.17+312.5-55.71/5.51.5)/(185.71+55.71/5.5+8.35+1)=2.156epa (I bolded the action cost and echo cost) Straight up buying Lizards with your profit: (145.17+312.5-1.21.73)/(185.71+17.42+1.73(3+9/11)+1)=2.162epa (Again bolded echo & action cost) Lizards and Abultion: (145.17+312.5-1.21.73-55.71/5.51.5)/(185.71+55.71/5.5+1.73(3+9/11)+1)=2.164*epa Why in the world did I think that it'd be faster spending extra actions on a lower epa grind to pay for the lizards... [/spoiler] -- Where the sun is hot, the moon is beautiful, and mysterious lights pass overhead while we all pretend to sleep. Going on a fate expedition? I'm collecting data! Help me? "Bottles of Oblivion" drunk in the name of content: 57 Catboxes (send more!) opened in the name of science: 1093 Fancy a friend?
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