Upcrafting rare success rates?

I’m under the impression, though i may be mistaken, that someone has been trying to gather the odds of rare successes for up-crafting: i.e. the bottle of airaig when turning love stories -> bazaar permits. If anyone can provide me a link to such a document, or the generally agreed-upon estimate, that would be appreciated, as i’ve got 1500 or so visions of the surface to upcraft. Thanks!

As an easy rule of thumb I’d recommend assuming the success rate is 5% for Tier 1 to Tier 2 and Tier 2 to Tier 3, 10% for Tier 3 to Tier 4 and 4% for Tier 4 to Tier 5.

If you want to see a collection of data (which has a much bigger spread than that):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v-OSVnf1qcRTV89G4Yj4wlo3GY3kxa0y-MpYC07T9-4/edit#gid=2

Converting 1500 Visions of the Surface to 300 Touching Love Stories should net you an average of 1620 Greyfields 1879, 67-68 CP of Making Waves, and 3-4 Uncanny Incanabulum.

Converting 300 Touching Love Stories into 60 Bazaar Permits should net you an average of 1440 Cryptic Clues and a ~30% chance of getting one bottle of Fourth City Airag.

More if you’re lucky, less if you’re not!

You could go to Polythreme and spend every action for a week and a half grinding Romantic Notions.

Alternately, steal Journals of Infamy from the Flit and side-convert to Visions.

If you don’t care about the Vision conversions, Heists at Baseborn & Fowlingpiece’s office is the most efficient way to grind Touching Love Stories directly.

[quote=the truthseeker]
Hope this isn’t a silly question, but what do you recommend mining to get such items in that bulk?[/quote]
I can’t speak for anyone else, but i took my newspaper’s journals of infamy from weeks of printing and side-crafted to the first thing that could be upcrafted with MW gain without going out of my way for points connected. I’m trying to farm Notability loop, since i could well need 9 more buckets, and force-draws are worth investing in in any case. Not getting my goat till christmas is over, i expect, which is fine. I also wasted half of them on upcrafts that don’t have the airaig chance, which is a shame.
edited by Grenem on 12/22/2015

[quote=the truthseeker][quote=metasynthie]As an easy rule of thumb I’d recommend assuming the success rate is 5% for Tier 1 to Tier 2 and Tier 2 to Tier 3, 10% for Tier 3 to Tier 4 and 4% for Tier 4 to Tier 5.

If you want to see a collection of data (which has a much bigger spread than that):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v-OSVnf1qcRTV89G4Yj4wlo3GY3kxa0y-MpYC07T9-4/edit#gid=2

Converting 1500 Visions of the Surface to 300 Touching Love Stories should net you an average of 1620 Greyfields 1879, 67-68 CP of Making Waves, and 3-4 Uncanny Incanabulum.

Converting 300 Touching Love Stories into 60 Bazaar Permits should net you an average of 1440 Cryptic Clues and a ~30% chance of getting one bottle of Fourth City Airag.

More if you’re lucky, less if you’re not![/quote]
Hope this isn’t a silly question, but what do you recommend mining to get such items in that bulk?[/quote]

If you’re feeling lucky you can ambush couriers in Spite’s Unfinished Business storylet. A rare success there can net you a Touching Love Story.

I assume you’re talking about the 1500 Visions from the original post, since everything else I mentioned is the product of conversion. The cheapest way to get Visions is to convert them upwards from Romantic Notions acquired by grinding in Polythreme. Slow but profitable (in other items) methods to get Visions include the Capering Relicker (when cashing out Someone is Coming) and grinding Correspondence Plaques by doing Affair of the Box, then side-converting. That takes 25 runs of the Box carousel to get 51 Visions, but you get a lot of echoes while doing it. After that, the best is probably just getting Honey in Veilgarden and upconverting it a couple times.

[quote=Pyrodinium][quote=the truthseeker][quote=metasynthie]As an easy rule of thumb I’d recommend assuming the success rate is 5% for Tier 1 to Tier 2 and Tier 2 to Tier 3, 10% for Tier 3 to Tier 4 and 4% for Tier 4 to Tier 5.

If you want to see a collection of data (which has a much bigger spread than that):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v-OSVnf1qcRTV89G4Yj4wlo3GY3kxa0y-MpYC07T9-4/edit#gid=2

Converting 1500 Visions of the Surface to 300 Touching Love Stories should net you an average of 1620 Greyfields 1879, 67-68 CP of Making Waves, and 3-4 Uncanny Incanabulum.

Converting 300 Touching Love Stories into 60 Bazaar Permits should net you an average of 1440 Cryptic Clues and a ~30% chance of getting one bottle of Fourth City Airag.

More if you’re lucky, less if you’re not![/quote]
Hope this isn’t a silly question, but what do you recommend mining to get such items in that bulk?[/quote]

If you’re feeling lucky you can ambush couriers in Spite’s Unfinished Business storylet. A rare success there can net you a Touching Love Story.[/quote]

Note: it’s not a rare success, just an alternative success.

[quote=The Master][quote=Pyrodinium][quote=the truthseeker][quote=metasynthie]As an easy rule of thumb I’d recommend assuming the success rate is 5% for Tier 1 to Tier 2 and Tier 2 to Tier 3, 10% for Tier 3 to Tier 4 and 4% for Tier 4 to Tier 5.

If you want to see a collection of data (which has a much bigger spread than that):
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v-OSVnf1qcRTV89G4Yj4wlo3GY3kxa0y-MpYC07T9-4/edit#gid=2

Converting 1500 Visions of the Surface to 300 Touching Love Stories should net you an average of 1620 Greyfields 1879, 67-68 CP of Making Waves, and 3-4 Uncanny Incanabulum.

Converting 300 Touching Love Stories into 60 Bazaar Permits should net you an average of 1440 Cryptic Clues and a ~30% chance of getting one bottle of Fourth City Airag.

More if you’re lucky, less if you’re not![/quote]
Hope this isn’t a silly question, but what do you recommend mining to get such items in that bulk?[/quote]

If you’re feeling lucky you can ambush couriers in Spite’s Unfinished Business storylet. A rare success there can net you a Touching Love Story.[/quote]

Note: it’s not a rare success, just an alternative success.[/quote]
Rare success is the popular terminology. It’s not rare enough to be truely rare, but &quotrare success&quot just refers to an alternative outcome on success that may or may not trigger. Also, I’m pretty sure it is rarer than the standard success- or more people would be doing that for echo grinding at 2.5 epa half the time.
edited by Grenem on 12/22/2015