Yeah, but getting a 71% chance 15 times in a row (the number of 7 value strange catches I’ve thrown at this breathtakingly unfun RNG-fest) has a less than 1% chance of happening (0.587%, to be precise). If I were the only person having trouble getting the 26-28 range to show up, I’d chalk it up to extreme bad luck. With more people clearly having trouble, I’m more inclined to think the RNG being used is badly programmed.[/quote]
I know human intuition is generally a pretty bad guide to statistics, but… (waves hands in vague maths-person frustration). You’ve run the numbers on this one and still seem to have missed what a 0.587% chance actually indicates.
It means that the thing in question will happen to (on average) one in every ~170 people, and there are quite a lot more than 170 people playing Fallen London. (Or it wouldn’t be making enough money to support one person full-time, never mind a team.) (Also, I suspect that even most people who use the forums - who are generally a game’s most dedicated fans/players - lack the dedication to run that irritatingly random carousel fifteen times, so the failure chance for the average complainer is likely higher.)
And as I’ve observed before, I would be very surprised to find that Fallen London’s RNG system is doing anything other than asking the AWS server for a random number - which is also what Amazon’s own ecommerce systems use.