The Fidgeting Writer - doing the maths (SPOILERS)

Hello,

I’ve worked on ancusohm’s google sheet
(http://community.failbettergames.com/messages.aspx?topicid=376&Page=6#post71580)
to create a shopping list for the Fidgeting Writer carousel.
It’s on the third tab.
You need to input the amount of items needed and the desired award.
The sheet calculates the amount of materials needed according to the standard success ratios and common component grinds used by the original editor.
It also outputs various data on the echo worth of the awards.
Surely some values could be off, so any comments would be welcome.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_wHGKJCG9SnhiGEwPihKiMJGM6VC4EkJJSsZTYR9xJY/edit?usp=sharing

Please remember that the calculations are based on statistics and that you should overshoot to avoid component shortcoming.

PS. If the original writer does not wish me to use his work, just send me a message and I’ll remove the original tabs.
edited by GeorgeEarlslight on 10/2/2015

That is pretty neat, thank you.
Very fine work there!

Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t side conversion better for Uncovered Identities?

Getting 20 Identities by farming proscribed material with unfinished business requires 1250 materials, which you’ll need 50 actions for, then 5 actions to turn that into inklings, 1 action to turn those into gossip, and 2 actions to turn those into identities. 58 actions total.

On the other hand, thefts in the Flit with hoodlums will give 100 journals of infamy for 128 casing, that’s 35 actions (with a bit of casing leftover), plus 4 to actually steal the things, and then 8 actions to turn all of those into gossip, and then two actions to turn that into identities, which will give 20 identities in 49 actions.

It’s not much better, but it does seem to give a slightly better ppa. Do tell me if I’ve neglected something in my hasty math.

EDIT: AAAAAND I just realized that the spreadsheet doesn’t actually talk about unfinished business anywhere, disregard all this

I feel dumb now >_<
edited by NotaWalrus on 10/2/2015

The spreadsheet “Grinds” the proscribed material in the university at 21 units per actions, though, which is worse than unfinished business (~25 units per action on average?) in the first place.
And any grind that starts by mass conversion from tier 1 to tier 2 will almost definitely lose to grinds that start by obtaining tier 3 items directly.

[quote=xKiv]The spreadsheet &quotGrinds&quot the proscribed material in the university at 21 units per actions, though, which is worse than unfinished business (~25 units per action on average?) in the first place.
And any grind that starts by mass conversion from tier 1 to tier 2 will almost definitely lose to grinds that start by obtaining tier 3 items directly.[/quote]
So my sleep-addled math holds up after all? Oh my, this is peculiar, isn’t it?

According to my calculations Thefts of a particular character has a ppa of 126.3 on ideal circumstances. While Unfinished business does seem to have a ppa of 100. I guess the question then becomes whether the bonus from the conversions offsets this. I guess 'll do some more elaborate math later.

Unless there’s a better Proscribed material grind I’m ignoring, that is.

Tier-3-to-tier-3 side-conversions convert 25 echo of stuff at 0.5 epa.
Tier-1-to-tier-2 mass-conversions convert 10 echo of stuff at 0.5 epa. This is bad for the total epa, even though tier-2-to-tier-3 mass-conversions convert 50 echo of stuff at 2.5 epa. (tier-1-to-tier-3 chain has 5 1-to-2 conversions, so it converts 50 echo of stuff at 5e/6a=0.83 epa)

JoI to inc.gossip is 4 steps, so this chain converts 50 echos of JoI to 51 echo of inc.gossips in 8actions, leaving you with 6 echo worth of extras.
Tier-1-to-3 converts 50 echos of proscribed materials to (52.5 echos of inklings in 5 actions, and then) 57.2 echos of inc.gossip (in 2.08 more, which means the chain finishes) in 7.08 actions, with no extras.

Therefore:
If your basic grind for p.mat. is at 1.00 epa, then you are getting 57.2 echoes of inc.gossip every 52.08 actions (gossip epa=total epa: 1.098).
If you are getting JoI at 1.263 epa, then you can get 51 echoes of inc.gossip every 47.59 actions (gossip epa: 1.0717), with 0.126 bonus epa in other resources (total epa: 1.1977).

Only if you allow opportunity cards. Get firefox candle stubs from clay sedan/for a little sport, then use the nocturnal visitor card to convert them into inklings. That’s … 40.5 actions to get 52.5 echoes of inc.gossip (gossip epa: 1.296), with almost 10 echoes of bonus stuff (total epa: 1.54)

Opportunity cards definitely open up mass conversions as an alternate route. For instance, by my calculations, Riding your Velocipede will get you 1.32 echoes worth of Tales of Terror per action once you’ve mass-converted the Clues up. Mechanics of Progress and visiting the Forger likewise provide an efficient source of clues. If you can get any of the basic resources for the items you need at a better rate than Unfinished Business from opportunity cards, you potentially have another route.

Also of note is that publishing an edition of your newspaper brimming with truth and wisdom gets you 1.29-1.33 epa in a mix of JoI and Identities Uncovered. It’s not as efficient as stealing from the Flit for JoI alone, but since you need Identities anyway it may well be worth it.

xKiv’s idea got me thinking, because it works, but I don’t want to play that Clay Sedan option because I’m maintaining a high Magnanimous. So, being the crackpot that I am, I started looking at the Kaleidoscopic Church. Now, this is abysmal for generating Gossip alone, coming in at 0.445 epa, but every rotation through the Church to get enough candles for the Palace garners you 6.25 points of Someone is Coming, and the Capering Relicker lets you trade in 10 points of SiC for 12 echoes of Visions of the Surface, another commodity you need. This means that if you only play the Kaleidoscopic Church when SiC < 4, by the time you have run through enough Nocturnal Visits to mass convert Inklings to Gossip, you will have garnered enough SiC for 10 rounds with the Capering Relicker for 120 echoes of Visions. Overall rate of FW material gain: 1.35 epa, making it more efficient than stealing JoI and side-converting for either Visions or Gossip singly. Oh, and you get some Appalling Secrets on the side. You’ll probably end up with a surplus of materials somewhere, but since this is based on playing multiple opportunity cards over time, you’ll still have the bulk of your actions to grind out any material you fall short of.

Okay, I gotta rebuild my Enigmas after Cider, so let’s sum this up.

Tale of Terror!! = directly from Thefts of Particular Character

Vision of the Surface = side-convert from Journals of Infamy (Thefts of Particular Character)

Correspondence Plaque = side-convert from Journals of Infamy

Brilliant Soul = directly from Thefts of Particular Character

An Identity Uncovered! = get Jade (either from Society at the Palace to Jade at the Temple Club, or from Unfinished Business at Watchmaker’s Hill), buy Incendiary Gossip at the Labyrinth (Take some refreshment, Coil 1), then convert up.

Extraordinary Implication = convert up from Tales of Terror!!

(stop here if going for Enigmas, but if going to end)

Mourning Candle = Affair of the Box

Yes?
edited by an_ocelot on 12/30/2015

[quote=an_ocelot]Vision of the Surface = side-convert from Journals of Infamy (Thefts of Particular Character)[/quote]Depending on how many you need, it might be more efficient to get Romantic Notions in Polythreme and convert up.

[quote=an_ocelot]Extraordinary Implication = convert up from Tales of Terror!![/quote]You should be able to get enough of these through Cider dreams, yes?

[quote=an_ocelot]Mourning Candle = Affair of the Box[/quote]I got all I needed and then some with the Half-Abandoned Mansions.

I prefer to stay in the Fifth City so I can pull cards; I’ve temporarily set aside Cider dreams to ditch my Revolutionary connections (and obviously that’s not very useful for most people!), and I don’t K&C so I can’t use a Half-Abandoned Mansion, but that’s good to know for others. Thanks!

[quote=GeorgeEarlslight]I’ve worked on ancusohm’s google sheet
(http://community.failbettergames.com/messages.aspx?topicid=376&Page=6#post71580)
to create a shopping list for the Fidgeting Writer carousel.
[…]
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_wHGKJCG9SnhiGEwPihKiMJGM6VC4EkJJSsZTYR9xJY/edit?usp=sharing[/quote]
I have also built on those before me: this spreadsheet was incredibly useful, but I had to do my own calculations for how many of the raw materials were necessary, so my version of the shopping list tells you that. It was also updated with the suggested conversions in this thread.

As noted in the &quotcredits & how-to&quot tab, use File / Make a Copy to run your own calculations.

I have cleverly saved doing this until I already had a giant headache, so corrections are more than welcome! I tried to be transparent about my work so that people could check it more easily.

Further update: fixed the Brilliant Souls/Correspondence Plaques in a still ugly, but more accurate way.

I’m still running down the Antique Mysteries and Collated Research–they seem to be giving me excitingly different results and I find the formulas used here to be entirely impenetrable. So if you’re trying to calculate how to grind those, maybe do that math by hand for the moment.
edited by an_ocelot on 1/24/2016

Okay! I was entirely unable to debug the fancy spreadsheet, so I went for the less-fancy, but hopefully more transparent, version.

Here’s the updated version.

Use the tabs at the bottom to choose what you want to convert. You’ll get back what items you need for the Fidgeting Writer itself, plus what raw materials you’ll need, with the actions it’ll take (one of those is just a conservative estimate).

This gives significantly different results than GeorgeEarlslight’s version for Antique Mysteries and Collated Research; please do check my math! I also added the number of actions it takes to cash in the items to the EPA calculation, which was omitted from the prior spreadsheet.

Other feedback is extremely welcome.

(Further edits: putting back thing that got eaten by a cut & paste bug; updating EPAs; link to check for updates from spreadsheet itself.)
edited by an_ocelot on 1/25/2016

Having just finished restocking my Searing Enigmas in preparation for the eventually return of Seeking, I’m pretty happy with the spreadsheet; but I’d still love feedback. My next long-term project is gathering some data on Jade at the Temple Club to try and refine that EPA.

[quote=an_ocelot]Having just finished restocking my Searing Enigmas in preparation for the eventually return of Seeking, I’m pretty happy with the spreadsheet; but I’d still love feedback. My next long-term project is gathering some data on Jade at the Temple Club to try and refine that EPA.[/quote] With emphasis on ‘Eventual’ I see. Nonetheless that’s a lovely spreadsheet, really impressive work.

Arensen, thanks so much!

[quote=an_ocelot]Here’s the updated version.

Use the tabs at the bottom to choose what you want to convert. You’ll get back what items you need for the Fidgeting Writer itself, plus what raw materials you’ll need, with the actions it’ll take (one of those is just a conservative estimate). [/quote]
Thanks to the kind data-gathering skills of NiteBrite, I have determined that Jade via the Temple Club is only advantageous if you don’t have to grind Society first (details below); otherwise, you want Unfinished Business. Spreadsheet updated accordingly.

NiteBrite found that the Jade Fragments you get at the Temple Club average your Persuasive level. My max persuasive is 251, which is fairly close to the overall max. Every 1 action of trading Connected: Society for Jade at the Temple Club consumes 44 CP of Connected; being erudite at the Duchess’s salon gains 33 CP per action, so it takes 1.33 actions to generate enough Connected: Society to cash in, for 2.33 actions total: 251/2.33 = 1.08 EPA. Meanwhile, the wiki says that in Unfinished Business, the range of Jade obtained per 2 actions is 51-501; if this is an even distribution, the average should be 276: 276/2 = 1.38 EPA.

Out of curiosity, how does using ‘Swap Incendiary Gossip’ compare to grinding Jade?

Ah! Way better than cashing connections via &quotCalling in Favors&quot which lowers 120CP for 2.40 echos (if you have a high persuasive).
Thank you for that.
EDIT: Put the decimal point at the right place
edited by Gonen on 2/26/2016

I’ve never gotten more than 451 jade from Unfinished Business, so I think the cap of 501 is overestimated or has been reduced. Still, even with a Persuasive mood, profession and destiny I think Unfinished Business comes out a bit ahead. I suppose if you got ALL your Society connection from being a Shepherd of Souls, 50 CP at a time, Temple Club would jump ahead, but that’s not really a reliable grind.

[quote=Gonen]Ah! Way better than cashing connections via &quotCalling in Favors&quot which lowers 120CP for 240 echos (if you have a high persuasive).[/quote]No! It’s # of Jade fragments not # of Echoes.