Percentages

Sorry, deleted the previous post, no idea what happened with the formatting, but only adds to my concerns the game has it in for me :P

My point was that I had a significant string of more failures than successes on >60% chances which led to acquiring quite a bit of scandal. This makes me a bit reluctant to trust the game any more…
edited by Namea on 11/12/2014

You hit the submit button twice. It does that, unfortunately.

As for your luck problems? There will be strings of good luck and strings of bad luck. In the long run among all the players the percentages are indeed accurate, and there are Second Chance items to help you with those important checks.

Barring a code typo, the percentages are accurate for any one player.

The inability of the human mind to understand probability is famous. Even if you know how it works, you will still feel this.

It possible to muck up the coding by providing the wrong base chance, but any decent framework will provide you with a simple way of generating a number that is as close to truly random as makes no difference.

What I find more interesting is why so many games just go with this, even though it’s very commonly complained about. It could be because once you make your own, more satisfying, fake probability (that more closely matches our flawed perception of what it ‘ought’ to be) you’re much more likely to run into nasty bugs with it!

Or it could be that we subconsciously love it - you don’t have to be a full-blown gambling addict to get a bit of a risk thrill, and even the hatred of a losing streak can be engaging in a way.

I know Blizzard changed some of their more obnoxious ‘random chance to get X’ quests in World of Warcraft ages ago to give you an increasing chance of success with every failure, and Apple changed the iPod’s truly random shuffle feature to be less random (i.e. more variety) because no-one liked hearing 3 songs from the same album in succession when you have 100+ albums.

But that is Blizzard and Apple. I expect smaller devs who don’t have things like in-house cognitive psychologists on staff probably (probability unknown) just go with System.Random() and call it a day.

Oh, I’m sure the percentages are accurate for any one player. I just mean that there’s no issue with the RNG as a whole, so strings of bad luck are just that and not any inherent problem with the game.

Of course. The game hates us. We know that;)

I am going for an Impossible Theorem at the moment. That requires blowing 312 echoes worth of incunabulae(?) for a possible 1-6 searing enigmas.

My results so far:

1,1,1,1,3,5,5

Make of that what you will, but if that 3 was another 1…I might well have given up!

Ah, I didn’t have the courage to take that route for my Impossible Theorem. I used the Fidgeting Writer to get my Searing Enigmas along with a bunch of other stuff, and had enough spare Black Lenses for 12 Coruscating Souls.

No courage and the Fidgeting writer?? That is the most &quotRNG hates you&quot option there is!

At least I’m getting a good chunk of making waves & notability en-route to the black books, even when the turbine thing eats 'em and spews out one sorry enigma!

Anyway, I feel we have derailed a bit from Namea’s original question, so, to return - yes, the game has it in for you. And it will do so more painfully and expensively the further you get into it. And you will keep playing.

Oh, I got a bunch of Making Waves from the Fidgeting Writer too. Enough to keep my Notability up during the months I was playing it, and when I used up all my Black Lenses I was really close to enough for Notability 9. :) The Fidgeting Writer isn’t so bad when you convert in large chunks (I progressed in batches of 50). You still fail a bunch, but I was expecting it and still made visible progress towards my goal.

More on topic - you’ll eventually progress to the point where most challenges are 100% straightforward. There will still be options that you’ll never be guaranteed success, but at least it won’t be the norm always and forever.

9?

I am sorry. I thought I was in the presence of Fallen London Aristocracy here:) If the cards go my way I shall be 14 before the week is out, mark my words.

What was that about a topic? Oh yeah, &quotmost challenges are 100% straightforward&quot. They are. Apart from a couple of persuasive and watchful ones late-game, so they are probably what you should use 15* notability to boost.

*is that some sort of cap? I feel I could go higher if I was allowed to divorce my spouse and go for that rubbery perversion…

Yeah, I’m only at 10 right now. I’ll get up to 15 (that is indeed the cap) eventually. Bit lazy at the moment. Probably doesn’t help that I plan to get 11 vials of M_____'s B____, so I don’t have much incentive to max it out anytime soon.

Significance of 11 vials?

There are 11 in the group. Beyond that there’s absolutely no reason to go through all that trouble. I’m just doing it for fun.

[quote=yetanotherone]

Barring a code typo, the percentages are accurate for any one player.

The inability of the human mind to understand probability is famous. Even if you know how it works, you will still feel this.

It possible to muck up the coding by providing the wrong base chance, but any decent framework will provide you with a simple way of generating a number that is as close to truly random as makes no difference.[/quote]

AFAIK, generating a number can precisely be a problem due to how pseudorandom number generation works. Better to generate a whole bunch of them and then use a certain proportion until you generate new ones.