Orphans and Tigers and Ballets - Oh My!

Fallen London
1

Inspired by the work of dov and Ginneon Thursday I calculated Echoes per Action (EPA) values for converting Winsome Dispossessed Orphans (Orphans) and Ballets to Court of the Wakeful Eye (Court) Boons. As a result of game mechanics, conversion EPA is:

[li]
inversely proportional to the number of Actions required to zail to the Court
proportional to the amount of Tribute taken on each trip to the Court
[/li]

To model varying EPA values I created two tables showing EPA for differing amounts of Orphans (4 to 40) and Ballets (7 to 47) and zee travel actions (I assume a ‘fast’ travel time of 25 actions for a London to Court round trip and a ‘slow’ travel time of 40 actions). The model assumes that all statistic-check Actions automatically succeed; failures during the grind will lower EPA.

Results

I summarize the results here, the calculation tables and table notes are available as Google documents.

Number of Orphans = slow-travel EPA to fast-travel EPA
4 = 0.833 to 1.088
8 = 1.211 to 1.460
12 = 1.428 to 1.646
16 = 1.568 to 1.762
20 = 1.666 to 1.838
24 = 1.738 to 1.892
28 = 1.794 to 1.933
32 = 1.838 to 1.965
36 = 1.874 to 1.990
40 = 1.904 to 2.011

Number of Ballets = slow-travel EPA to fast-travel EPA
7 = 1.386 to 1.499
14 = 1.545 to 1.613
20 = 1.67 to 1.668
27 = 1.648 to 1.687
34 = 1.667 to 1.699
40 = 1.687 to 1.714
47 = 1.695 to 1.719

Note: Ballet EPA will vary slightly based on the actual frequency of rare successes received from the Consult the lead’s Opinions action. Additionally, all EPA values are actually slightly higher than shown because item-giving cards are encountered during zailing.

Conclusions

Converting large numbers of Orphans to Tribute to Boons has an excellent EPA; it may be the best non-Fate and a non-card grind in the game (see for example: http://fallenlondon.wikia.com/wiki/Money-Making).

Converting large numbers of Ballets to Tribute to Boons has an EPA comparable to other good EPA grinds such as the Affair of the Box and trading Collections of Curiosities to Tomb Colonists. However, it is action intensive and the EPA is inferior to converting Orphans. Staging Ballets, then, is a good financial choice when pursuing becoming a Poet Laureate; especially if all Tribute created from Ballets in the process of becoming a Poet Laureate is taken to the Court on a single voyage. Once the Poet Laureate position is achieved, the Ballet-to-Boon grind should be abandoned if EPA maximization is the goal.

Questions and Improvements

At what point do these grinds pay off the Echo and Action costs of accessing them? Is there an EPA loss for these grinds resulting from not being in London for significant periods of time? Better estimates of the number of Actions required for roundtrip zailing for each type of ship are needed. Estimates of Echo gain per voyage are needed.

2

Just one note: if you undertake the Poet Laureate grind and introduce the orphans to the tigers when you are done, then sail and exchange all your tribute in one go, this is your best possible scenario. The major problem is the boredom you will feel as you exchange tribute for enigmas and night whispers. The lack of cards will not reduce your EPA (London does not have that many profitable cards) but it is best suited when you cannot play often.

3

Some highlights from my own calculations on using orphans:

  • The grind theoretically maxes out at 2.22 EPA. Since the number of orphans can scale infinitely, the one-time travel cost is eventually irrelevant.[/li][li]The initial action cost to convert orphans is pretty small, but the high price of each orphan means the grind requires a lot of cash up front. Less available money means fewer orphans, which means a less efficient cycle. By my math (using 40 action round trips) you need 73 orphans just to hit 2.0 EPA, which is ~4700 echoes. Fortunately the income from each cycle makes the next more efficient.[/li][li]Most of the grind is spent in the Court of the Wakeful Eye, where the only available options all cost four actions. This makes the grind less efficient than numbers suggest—logging off for the day wastes actions that aren’t in a multiple of four.[/li][li]I doubt the number of cards in London over 2.22 EPA would outclass the orphan grind, but it’s important to keep TtH in mind. Getting 70 echoes (assuming Doctor/Notary) for four actions plus a quarter of 125 echoes from Professional Perks is pretty significant. I haven’t done the math for this, but given that you have to spend some amount of time in London to generate new Tribute, I’m pretty sure a two-week cycle is ideal. Come back the day before TtH, grab that, hand in enough orphans for two weeks worth of tribute while playing cards over 2.22 EPA, grab the next TtH when it hits, then set sail again. The exact time spent in London varies by person, depending on how many actions you use in two weeks, but it should be one action on orphans for every five actions at the Court.
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[quote=Optimatum]Some highlights from my own calculations on using orphans:

[ul][li]The grind theoretically maxes out at 2.22 EPA. Since the number of orphans can scale infinitely, the one-time travel cost is eventually irrelevant.[/li][/quote]

With a 40 action zee trip, you hit 2.22 EPA at approximately 17,700 Orphans. The EPA caps out at ~2.22083, achieved with around 1.8 million Orphans (probably about a quarter or a third of London’s population, based on real life estimates of the late 19th century).

[/ul]
edited by Lady Sapho Byron on 7/26/2018

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[color=#ff9900]When math breaks your heart.[/color]

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[color=#ff9900]When math breaks your heart.[/color][/quote]
Down here, someone has always lost a daughter.

7

I’m fairly certain that the optimal number of orphans is 280 if you want to have some slack, or 300 to sink every single action into this grind. They leave about ~175 and ~50 actions respectively every 14-day cycle. Personally I’ve been using 280 so far.

I am almost dead certain there isn’t a more optimal cycle because diminishing returns kick in really hard, so there’s no way it’s worth the >90 echoes any level 3 profession gives you - and there’s nothing that would justify a shorter cycle.
edited by Dudebro Pyro on 7/26/2018

8

There actually are quite a few cards that exceed 2.0 EPA while in London. In addition to adding some variety and giving a chance to maintain Notability and collect wages, time spent in London flipping cards while acquiring orphans is itself a good source of income.

9

I agree with Tyrconnell. There are more profitable cards than you might remember. Starting with, for example, every single card which have the ability to grand 1 favour of any connection. That thing is worth 2.4 EPA (minimum).

Also, have you calculated the journey BACK to London in that calculation?

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[quote=Gonen]I agree with Tyrconnell. There are more profitable cards than you might remember. Starting with, for example, every single card which have the ability to grand 1 favour of any connection. That thing is worth 2.4 EPA (minimum).

Also, have you calculated the journey BACK to London in that calculation?[/quote]

Aren’t the regular cash-ins 2.2 EPA? And that’s for favour sources without without item or menace costs.

(And yes, the action estimates are for round trips.)

11

[quote=Gonen]
Also, have you calculated the journey BACK to London in that calculation?[/quote]

In my calculations, and in all the other calculations I’ve seen, the zailing action total is for the entire round trip, not just one way.

[li]

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[quote=Optimatum][quote=Gonen]I agree with Tyrconnell. There are more profitable cards than you might remember. Starting with, for example, every single card which have the ability to grand 1 favour of any connection. That thing is worth 2.4 EPA (minimum).

Also, have you calculated the journey BACK to London in that calculation?[/quote]

Aren’t the regular cash-ins 2.2 EPA? And that’s for favour sources without without item or menace costs.

(And yes, the action estimates are for round trips.)[/quote]Favour sources without item or menace costs should be 2.1 EPA at the standard trade-in. Conflict cards and other opportunity cards (Implausible Penance and Consideration for Services Rendered, at least) are higher. Regardless, the number of cards this profitable in London is limited (other than favours, I can only think of three right now), is overly reliant on luck, and it requires playing every 60 to 100 minutes to reach maximum efficiency.

As long as you travel in two-week sections, leaving immediately after Time the Healer and returning immediately before the end of two weeks, you won’t miss a single payment, and that can sustain traveling with thousands of Tribute.

13

For anyone who’s interested, here is an EPA calculator I made for the Orphan Grind:

14

Think it was over discussed, but my conclusion is the same:

  • very active players are advised to stay in London specially if one has some Fate unlocks (Gift, Velocipede, etc). To this add expeditions specially if you haven’t started the Labyrinth part of the game (Frequent not Standard).
  • players who can’t log in much are advised to move to the Court.
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[quote=idyl]For anyone who’s interested, here is an EPA calculator I made for the Orphan Grind:

That’s one fantastic spreadsheet!

[quote=Skinnyman]

  • very active players are advised to stay in London specially if one has some Fate unlocks (Gift, Velocipede, etc).[/quote]
    But doing what? Other than spirifage, which a lot of players may not want or be able to do (I’m a Shepherd myself), almost every grind I can think of is either heavily luck-based (Tomb-Colonies CoC, Fidgeting Writer), only available until some point of progress that’s easy to speed past (Universities clues, then diamonds on side-streets), or comparatively abysmal in EPA (AotB).
    edited by Dudebro Pyro on 7/27/2018
16

Indeed. Even empirically, spending a week at the Court (no Time the Healer lost) netted me much more than standard weeks do. I had arranged adoptions for 100 orphans, and completed enough ballets to get to Poet Laureate before setting sail. In the end, I made about 2000 more than I usually do - and I am very active.
But the tedium. God, the tedium. It did not feel like playing a game, it felt about as exciting as housework.

17

Indeed. At least it’s four actions a pop, rather than having to individually spend all 40, which I find rather minimises tedium.
Long-term, I think this is ideal, since it doesn’t matter what grind you do - if you repeat it for a few months, it will become tedious. Not having to &quotworry&quot about cards being able to sink piles of actions with just a few clicks might just be what finally gets me to grind out some of the stuff like a (uber)goat, which I am way past overdue on simply because spending several minutes clicking through 40 actions (while paying attention to what you click and/or scrolling through long storylet lists), several times a day, has managed to make me give up grinding every time I’ve attempted it before now.
edited by Dudebro Pyro on 7/27/2018

18

I honestly prefer “grinds” like expeditions and heists, which yield less results but have an element of surprise, of happenstance. To each their own of course, but I find that even going to the Bazaar every three days and selling what you accumulated, when you are at zero actions, makes the game more fun than doing the same thing over and over.
Not that the Court of the Wakeful Eye is not atmospheric, but to balance things out after I was finished delivering tribute, I had to tour the entire unterzee to clear my head.

19

My some of my random thoughts on the grind:

The Orphan Grind is extremely dependable, but also extremely boring to the point that it feels like you’re not playing the same game anymore (especially if you do an almost-two-week journey). I’ve done it a few times, but need a while between trips to the Court because of how much I hate it while there. The 4-actions per click helps, but that just means I’m playing even less often, furthering the disconnect from the game. Yeah, the money is good, but how good?..

Soon I’m going to do a survey over a similar two week period while remaining in London to track my EPA. While it’s a pain tracking every action, Echo spent, and Echo gained, I think it’ll give good insight into whether the Court is really worth it. Between being able to draw/play cards, Spirifage, and expeditions, I’m leaning toward thinking that staying in London is more Lucrative than going to Court, especially if you’re an active player. (Plus it feels like actually playing).

Also note, while the theoretical limit is 2.22, the max you can do is really 2.19 because of time restraints. Not a big deal, but still. Missing a Time, the Healer payment, along with possibly Professional Perks (at least cashing them in, since they don’t increase over 4), would pretty much nullify any decent EPA you could build up while at Court. Max Tribute you can do without missing a TtH is ~8,000, which is 320 Orphans.

[i]edited by idyl on 7/27/2018[/i]
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In the end, I think it is a matter of personal preference. But then again, the cider grind, which I am on, is so long that in the end :cue music: nothing really matters, at aaaall.