On Matters of Soul Trade

A1 base grind is 2.1 epa
A2 base favour value is 2.1e
A3 best ways to clear menaces are social actions (-6 cppa)
From A1 and A3 cost of 1cp of menaces is 2.1 / 6 = 0.35e

&quotA true and dedicated shepher of souls&quot cost is 1000 souls + 100 contracts = 40e
The best grind for souls (&quotThe price of…&quot) is 1.21 epa
and the best grind for contracts (&quotContracts and legs&quot) is 1 epa
From A1 you are missing (2.1 - 1.21) = 0.89e on every action in soul grind
and you need 20 / 1.21 = 16.5 actions.
Same for contracts, (2.1 - 1) = 1.1e and 20 / 1 = 20 actions
Adjusted cost for Shephed card is (20 + 16.5 * 0.89) = 34.68e and (20 + 20 * 1.1) = 42,
so total cost is 76.68.

&quotA true and dedicated shepher of souls&quot reward is 13.5 favours on average and menace wipe.
From A2 13.5 * 2.1 = 28.35e.

How many menaces do we need to break even?
(76.68 - 28.35) / 0.35 = 144 cp of menaces
Without menace reducing items its safe to have 35 cp of one menace,
so 35 * 4 = 140 we are still in “debt”. With menace reducing items we do have nano-profit, which is totally do not worth the hassle.

That was the best option on card. Second best (50 souls for 1.5 favours) is 1.41 epa, others even worse.

Spirifers grind is 1.65 - 1.75 epa according to different sources. When non-fate locked grinds provide 2.1-2.2 epa (silken thread expeditions and court of the eye), who even need spirifing?

Possible solution
Change &quotThe prince of…&quot to 1.45 epa and &quotContracts and legs&quot to 1.6 epa. Or add better sources for souls and contracts

Alternative calculation for 1.45 epa soul grind and 1.6 epa contract grind :
You are missing (2.1 - 1.45) = 0.65e on every action in soul grind
and you need 20 / 1.45 = 13.8 actions.
Same for contracts, (2.1 - 1.6) = 0.5e and 20 / 1.6 = 12.5 actions

Adjusted cost for Shephed card is (20 + 13.8 * 0.65) = 28.97e and (20 + 12.5 * 0.5) = 26.25,
so total cost is 55.22.
How many menaces do we need to break even?
(55.22 - 28.35) / 0.35 = 77 cp of menaces (seven is the number!). Or two “maxed” menaces and some.

With 1.45 epa souls grind spirifing is 2.1-2.2 epa.
edited by Waterpls on 3/28/2020

Things change, FL changed a lot, best grinds are now just a reference to nostalgia, the game is designed to be asymmetrical and it’s not about the Echoes at all. :)

Doing Thieves cache expeditions was incredibly profitable if you were a Shepherd or even a Spirifer. The difference between these two was that the former required more planning and required cards but in the long run it yielded a better EPA.

Summary of analysis:

  1. Rev. connections came from FQ lectures which yielded 1 suspicion, but the payout was the same; 28.8 E.
  2. Conflict cards
  3. Cashing in the connections
  4. Menace wipe. Pile them up with a lot of AP and do as many Lectures as possible
  5. Extra juice if you had Cider and used the Nightmare cards. Just mentioning for the sake of it

All this put the grind to 2.48 and was happening 3 years ago. In the Thieves cache expedition scheme consider that Souls subtract AP (because you need Souls for the above grind) and the EPA of expeditions was 3.49. This number included the Zailing card which we found out it was bugged because it had two requirements, Gift card, Air option, cost of Rostygold.

Now all of this is history because we have Tigers, Silks and dreams!
edited by Skinnyman on 3/28/2020