Numbers from the Long Grind

Fallen London
1

I recently did a bit of math and thought I’d share the results here. I’ve been cider brewing for well over a year now. 572 days to be precise. I purchased my Ubergoat on March 20th, 2015 at which time I had approximately 22,000 echoes worth of items in reserve if you count the goat. As of today I have 125,317.53 echoes including those reserved items. This means I’ve earned around 103,217.53 echoes since purchasing my goat with an average income of about 180 echoes per day.

Now it’s important to note that this doesn’t mean at the end of each day I was 180 echoes richer. This includes weekly profession rewards, Trade Secrets trade ins, and all manner of other occasional income influxes. I also wasn’t on a serious dedicated grind the whole time. I achieved the maximum reward last Hallowmas, last Sackmas I achieved a Noman Tattoo at the cost of 30 pails of so-called-snow and 2 tears of the bazaar, I achieved the maximum profession level during the election, and got all the new items in the latest Fruit of the Zee festival. I’ve also achieved the first 3 Seeking candles and been an Exceptional Friend since they started the Exceptional Stories and played the story each month.

Since I know I’m going to get the question, my grinding method has changed several times. At the start I was doing the Affairs of the Box, which is profitable but annoying because of all the scrolling and the occasional misclick turning you into a turn coat. I used it to get my goats but eventually dropped it for the Fidgeting Writer which is where I probably spent most of my time on this grind. The RNG hates me so it’s definitely been less profitable than the AotB but it maintains my notability organically and you get to shake things up as you shift between collecting and converting items. I used batches of 100 so that I wasn’t spending such long stretches of time stuck on the earlier steps. Somewhere in there I governed Port Carnelian although I don’t know how successful I was at optimizing the profits. More recently I traded in my pocket watch and switched to Spirifage which is fantastically profitable (I now have about a goat’s worth of brass). These days I alternate between spirifage and the fidgiting writer. Through this whole thing I’ve been taken as much advantage as possible of high value opportunity cards. I particularly like collecting dock’s favors and using them to fund expeditions to the Shrine of the Deep Blue Heavens which has a really high average profit these days if you can 100% the 3 progress check.

If you’re on a long grind, or thinking about starting one, my advice is generally not to worry about being 100% optimal. You’ll just burn out. Switch things up. Take breaks. Start an alt to explore story paths you haven’t seen. Whatever you need to do to keep your interest. Because it’s not about being as profitable as possible. Any descent regular income will get you there eventually. You only fail if you give up.

2

As I expect you’ve done some math already, what do you do with each type of Favour? My current approach is using Docks favours for expeditions, Criminal favours for Souls or Honey from the relevant cards, Tomb-Colonist favours for Collections of Curiosities, and Rubbery Men favours for the Tomb-Colonist conflict card. (Specifically for that last one I exchange the Warm Amber from expeditions for Rubbery favours; I’m not sure if it’s worth it to get them at cost of scandal.

3

Unless you’ve got a friend/alt willing to take being duped for 6 scandal all the time, it’s not worth getting rubbery favors that way (from a pure monetary perspective; if you’re wanting renown then it’s a different story). 3 scandal is killer.

… though going to the tomb colonies is worth it to some people purely for the favors from that.

4

Any clue what the EPA’s like if I do dupe an alt to get rid of Scandal?

5

Napkin math is ~1.96 EPA. 22.50 echos from the tomb/rubbery conflict card, divided by 11.5 actions (7 favors, 1 turn in, 3.5 scandal reducing social actions).

EDIT: Slightly different than that actually, since you get 1 wounds from the turn in. It’s uncommon enough that time the healer might cover that though. Also you get 1 someone is coming, which is worth ~1 echo with very high shadowy and robbing a rat.
edited by Kaijyuu on 10/13/2016

6

Docks definitely go to expeditions. I even have the docks connected pet to make that happen more often. I only both with Criminal favours from the Repentant Forger (the suspicion from the other cards was becoming a nuisance) and use them to glimpse a notorious smuggler. That might not be the most optimal approach though. I haven’t spent too much time researching that. Tomb Colonist favors are best spent trading in collections but I’m often too lazy to go through the war of assassins and just trade them in for shrikes. Spirifage is profitable enough that the slightly higher efficiency of the collections doesn’t feel worth it.

I’m actually trying to increase Reputation: Rubbery Men at the moment so I save up their favors and spending them for that. I trade warm Amber if I have it but more often than not just shake hands. This happens infrequently enough that The scandals is easily managed through An Afternoon of Good Deeds.

7

Crime and Punishment is the best turn in for Criminals favors, I believe (though it’s infrequent frequency so you may have trouble drawing it). Same returns as the best of Implausible Penance (20 echos for 7 favors and 1 action), but with a somone is coming boost and a good suspicion reduction according to the wiki (helping with the suspicion you got getting the favors).

Implausible Penance seems specifically geared with EPA in mind, not echoes per favor. Glimpsing gives the best echoes per favor (~4 echoes), but the worst EPA (~2 EPA). The two good 7 favor ones in Implausible Penance give 20 echoes, which is ~2.5 EPA (7 actions for favors, 1 for turn in).

EDIT: If the wiki can be believed, there’s no benefit for having more than 5 favors for Crime and Punishment, so it’s the best EPA by far if you draw it with 5 favors. Didn’t notice that earlier.
edited by Kaijyuu on 10/13/2016

8

[quote=Kaijyuu]Napkin math is ~1.96 EPA. 22.50 echos from the tomb/rubbery conflict card, divided by 11.5 actions (7 favors, 1 turn in, 3.5 scandal reducing social actions).

EDIT: Slightly different than that actually, since you get 1 wounds from the turn in. It’s uncommon enough that time the healer might cover that though. Also you get 1 someone is coming, which is worth ~1 echo with very high shadowy and robbing a rat.
edited by Kaijyuu on 10/13/2016[/quote]

I get higher EPA than that, even not counting SIC. If you do only five favours at a time, it goes to ~2.06 EPA. Cashing in gives 17.5 E for 8.5 actions (5 favours, 1 turn in, 2.5 scandal reduction). You also get Carnival Tickets each go but I’m not sure what you can do with those for profit. Unless you already have Cider and a ridiculously optimized deck, in which case you could run the silly grind of repeatedly dying via the mirror and coming back to life to dupe cards.

I’m pretty sure that, even with Suspicion gain, the Criminal favours are still worth it. The best way to reduce Suspicion that I know is Opportunism in Spite -> Confound the Constables with Airs under 25 -> A man with a past, for -3 CP Suspicion and 0.44 E. The second option is -4 CP Suspicion, but that’s worse with base grinds of under 1.76 EPA.

I turn the favours in via A merry sort of crime and An Implausible Penance for souls, being a spirifer myself. For favour gains without any suspicion (Repentant Forger, Mayor card, faction pet without counting bonus items) it’s 2.2 EPA and 2.23 EPA respectively. For favour gains with 1 CP suspicion (faction card, maybe more?) it’s 1.95 EPA and 1.99 EPA respectively. For favour gains with 2 CP suspicion (Gang of Hoodlums card) it’s 1.76 EPA and 1.81 EPA respectively. All the Implausible Penance numbers are underestimates; you can turn in the C: Hell in the Forgotten Quarter to up the EPA further and it further assumes the 10% failure on turning in souls gives 3 CP suspicion, which I’m pretty sure is too high a number.

What do you mean by &quottrade them in for shrikes&quot? I assume you do trade in Collections of Curiosities gained through expeditions and DT from the Nadir.

[quote=Kaijyuu]Crime and Punishment is the best turn in for Criminals favors, I believe (though it’s infrequent frequency so you may have trouble drawing it). Same returns as the best of Implausible Penance (20 echos for 7 favors and 1 action), but with a somone is coming boost and a good suspicion reduction according to the wiki (helping with the suspicion you got getting the favors).

Implausible Penance seems specifically geared with EPA in mind, not echoes per favor. Glimpsing gives the best echoes per favor (~4 echoes), but the worst EPA (~2 EPA). The two good 7 favor ones in Implausible Penance give 20 echoes, which is ~2.5 EPA (7 actions for favors, 1 for turn in).

EDIT: If the wiki can be believed, there’s no benefit for having more than 5 favors for Crime and Punishment, so it’s the best EPA by far if you draw it with 5 favors. Didn’t notice that earlier.
edited by Kaijyuu on 10/13/2016[/quote]

The wiki almost certainly can’t be trusted on that last point. Judging by other conflict cards I’m guessing that five Criminal favours gives the Favour in High Places and Broken Giant, with one Sworn Statement per Criminal favour over that. Using the same Suspicion reduction as above, not counting SIC, and assuming the wiki’s estimate for -5 CP Suspicion on Crime or Punishment is correct:

No Suspicion gain per favour:
2.50 EPA for Crime or punishment? with 5 favours (not counting bonus suspicion reduction)
2.50 EPA for Crime or punishment? with 7 favours (not counting bonus suspicion reduction)
2.45 EPA for Pugilism and Politics (counting suspicion reduction every three times)

1 CP Suspicion:
2.5 EPA for Crime or punishment? with 5 favours
2.34 EPA for Crime or punishment? with 7 favours
1.90 EPA for Pugilism and Politics

2 CP Suspicion:
2.05 EPA for Crime or punishment? with 5 favours
1.94 EPA for Crime or punishment? with 7 favours
1.73 EPA for Pugilism and Politics

Thus the best way to turn in Criminal favours is via Crime or punishment? with 5 favours. Pugilism and Politics is better than A merry sort of crime The Smugglers’ Grave for Spirifers only when not gaining Suspicion for favours; it becomes the worst of all four methods when gaining Suspicion there.

Wow this ended up being a long post. Ironic that I spent over an hour writing about EPA optimization while my deck filled up and I lost potential profit :)
edited by Optimatum on 10/13/2016

9

I will note that Implausible Penance might be a good idea if you’re specifically wanting Greyfields 1882, glim, and maybe Morelways 1872, as the turnins that give them are all > 2 EPA. I don’t know a more economical way to get any of those.

10

From a quick view these all seem correct, but I want to add something to this lovely list:

  1. While a spirifer has a better outcome from Souls, do note that a Shepherd can kill all your menaces and gain 500 CP to Soc, Constable and Church for ~37.66 AP. Being able to reduce all my menaces, all side effects are excluded; I once did the math and combined with profitable actions the cause them it reduces the AP by a lot.
    I use Rubbery to get a higher Renown so exclude these, but I always have 5+ Tomb Favours for Soc-Tomb CC which yields ~27 E, Constable CP goes away in Crim-Const CC and I can always end up cashing in Church connections.
  2. Available for Both Soul Trade options: I do Thieves cache expedition when I got 7 and cards waiting. Lovely part is that you can get 500 Souls every two expeditions. Since I started recording my expeditions a month ago, those Souls saved me ~108 AP which got me ~3.166 EPA from expeditions including 96+ London Air options, An Evening’s Zailing card and buying Criminal favours options which I always use. Modified the sheet and a Spirifer would have ~3.14 EPA.

Side notes: As for Criminal Favours they go to A Merry Sort of Crime and Implausible Penance for Urchin Connection when cards pop. Otherwise, expeditions which consumed 140 Dock Favours, 24 Criminal and yielded 2088.8 E.

11

A spelling error on my part. I was referring to Calling In Favors in the Forgotten Quarter where you can trade a Tomb Colonist Favor for 210 Primordial Shrieks. If I have a Collection of Curiosity though I trade it instead. I don’t actually bother with the Nadir anymore. The monetary gain from it is inconsistent and I got tired of dealing with the stat loss.

Something worth noting when calculating the EPA of the favors and comparing them to other methods is you have to account for the same number of actions being taken in both methods. In the example of the Tomb Colonist Favors it takes 36 actions to do the whole sequence. 33 to get the Dramatic Tension, 1 to get the collection, 1 to get the favor, 1 to make the trade. That has an EPA of 1.81.

If I’m doing spirifage, getting the souls from unfinished business, trading them for brass, and then trading the Connected: Hell for more brass, I have an EPA of 1.74 according to the wiki. So in one I have a total of 36 actions for 65 echoes. If I just trade the favors in for shrieks then go back to spirifage I’d have 59.16 echoes from 34 actions of that plus 4.20 echoes from the favor for a net total of 63.36 echoes. So on one hand, I’d get an extra 1.64 echoes over 36 actions if I went the collection of curiosities route (an extra 0.05 EPA). But then I’d have to deal with all the scrolling necessary for the War of Assassins and wait to draw the Tomb Colonists card twice. At the moment, life is busy and there’s a distinct advantage to being able to clear my actions quickly. So simple, convenient grinds are preferable over more involved grinds even if they aren’t as optimal.

Something that is a sticking point for me though is Connected: Society. I have nearly 300 and part of me wants to build up Tomb Colonist Favors and trade it all in through the conflict card (assuming this is the best value to CP I can get for them). Another part of me though wants to keep it so I don’t have to fight to raise Renown like I’m having to do with the Rubbery Men. However, that might all be a waste depending on if getting Destin’s candle clears just your favors or your favors and renown after the change. So many unknowns. The correct answer might be to just cash them in. What need have an immortal drunk of societies graces?
edited by An Individual on 10/13/2016

12

Bumping this to confirm that for Crime and Punishment, the wiki is indeed correct that criminal favors don’t add to your reward past 5 favors. Criminals were the first they converted and probably just didn’t implement the scaling thing like they did for the later conflict cards.

So yeah, Criminal Favors are hella lucrative at >3 EPA using Crime and Punishment (slightly reduced by suspicion cost to get favors).

13

[quote=Kaijyuu]Bumping this to confirm that for Crime and Punishment, the wiki is indeed correct that criminal favors don’t add to your reward past 5 favors. Criminals were the first they converted and probably just didn’t implement the scaling thing like they did for the later conflict cards.

So yeah, Criminal Favors are hella lucrative at >3 EPA using Crime and Punishment (slightly reduced by suspicion cost to get favors).[/quote]
IIRC, this is both true and false. I may be mistaken, but I believe the suspicion reduction scales based on favor count, as it’s not consistently useless/useful. {I cannot confirm this, but it seems plausible- i may be mistaken, though.}
edited by Grenem on 10/16/2016

14

[quote=Grenem][quote=Kaijyuu]Bumping this to confirm that for Crime and Punishment, the wiki is indeed correct that criminal favors don’t add to your reward past 5 favors. Criminals were the first they converted and probably just didn’t implement the scaling thing like they did for the later conflict cards.

So yeah, Criminal Favors are hella lucrative at >3 EPA using Crime and Punishment (slightly reduced by suspicion cost to get favors).[/quote]
IIRC, this is both true and false. I may be mistaken, but I believe the suspicion reduction scales based on favor count, as it’s not consistently useless/useful. {I cannot confirm this, but it seems plausible- i may be mistaken, though.}
edited by Grenem on 10/16/2016[/quote]
That seems plausible - the wiki recorded a Suspicion reduction of ~5 CP but with 7 Favours I counted 7 CP.

15

I have been working on my own cider press and thought I would share my methodology.

As I continue to refine, my EpA has been climbing. For September it 2.3. October looks like it will be around 2.5, or about 360 echos per day. It is not clear if I will be able to squeeze much more out, but I am always on the lookout. I rarely lose an action through candles being full and usually only miss card draws when unconscious. Every morning I update a spreadsheet with the previous day’s earnings so I can track what is and is not effective.

Artful is a Spirifer, Correspondent, Legendary Charisma, and an Exceptional Friend in possession of a 5 card lodging, an Ubergoat and a Taciturn Mynah as a connected pet. Notability is 15 and is maintained easily week over week. Artful sided with the Cheery Man.

The base of my grind is as a deplorable Spirifer. Using the Fateful tools and options available and trading in connections from the Devils has given an effective EpA of 1.95 via Unfinished Business in Spite, harvesting a notable Hotel, and the odd Criminal favour. The EpA I expect from this grind is 1.85, suggesting that the Spite action yields closer to 67 Souls per Action (at Shadowy 251) than my guess of 63.

The day before Time the Healer is expected, a sojourn to the Cave of the Nadir is made. If Old Bones, Woods in Winter, Losing, or End of Battles is not on offer, Irrigo 5 usually ends the trip. If any of those are available, I will hang out until Irrigo 9. Lost at Sea, the Catafalquerie, and Old Sins will be played up until Irrigo 5. After 19 trips EpA is 10.28 with an average of 75.19 echos per trip. Stat damage is usually healed through normal actions well before the next trip, even at Irrigo 9. (There once was an Irrigo 10 incident, but that is best left forgotten.)

Forgotten Quarter expeditions for shrines of the Deep Blue Heaven are the next regular action sync. Docks favours fuel these. A Taciturn Mynah, our Mayor, The Docks card, the odd Polite Invitation, and a Fateful reward card all contribute. After 123 trips, my EpA is 2.38 with an average of 52.81 echos per expedition.

I flip most of my cards in The Flit, waiting for the ability to call in favours. Once one is in hand, it is back to the Forgotten Quarter where I provide public lectures to the Scandalous, Revolutionary, and or Elite of London. Bohemian connections are then called in at The Shuttered Palace and Revolutionaries pay in Proscribed Material. Society connections would also be called in at the Palace, but I am stockpiling those for the eventual conversion to Renown. Two or 3 bottles of Instant Ablution Absolution are then downed to mitigate Suspicion. Effective EpA for a cycle is 2.10.

Favour trading is another big chunk of my actions. The Rubbery favours are traded 7 at a time to the Tomb Colonists (preferably) or the Constables. Criminal favours are traded in 5 at a time to the Constables - excess of 5 are traded for Souls (An Implausible Penance) or Honey (A merry sort of crime).

Tomb Colonist favours are traded to Society. I do not favour the Collection of Curiosity grind here. Going Gentle has an EpA of 4.14 when traded in 7 at a time, and CoC only has an EpA of 1.81. If some Dramatic Tension is raised in The Cave, EpA for the CoC grind (via Wilmot’s End) goes to at least 2.5 and then I will trade for it.

I keep my deck pretty trim. In retrospect, I would not have bought so many Lodgings nor would I have acquired any PoSI BDR gear not strictly necessary for my 30 BDR. I have reduced all connections below 5 that do not contribute to the favour trading mentioned above. I have divested of all Companions that do not yield more than my base 1.95 EpA through Spiriferage. I only play cards from my deck that further one of the above grinds or have a higher than 1.95 EpA.

16

Do you have an alluring accomplice for criminals favors? She’s worth it if traded in through Crime and Punishment, though not worth it for honey/implausible penance.

17

I had one, but let her go. I received another today for free. Have not decided what to do with her.

I tend to have a hand full of Criminal Cards when Crime or Punishment rolls around, so I am considering keeping her for the action to trade a favour to her. Buying favours from her does not look profitable, and I tend to have too many as it is.

18

[quote=Artful]Artful is a Spirifer, Correspondent, Legendary Charisma, and an Exceptional Friend in possession of a 5 card lodging, an Ubergoat and a Taciturn Mynah as a connected pet. Notability is 15 and is maintained easily week over week. Artful sided with the Cheery Man.

You’re a Correspondent rather than a Doctor or Notary? With max Watchful gear, the only difference the Violant Ink makes for me is a slight increase in chance on the Overgoat card’s challenge and a couple pence more on average for two card options scaling with Watchful. Even with a well-trimmed deck the four additional points of Watchful has a far smaller impact for me than ten extra echoes a week. Also, why a five-card lodgings rather than a Remote Address? Two fewer slots to bank cards isn’t as relevant when you’re cutting a handful of bad (and unfortunately common) cards from your deck.

The base of my grind is as a deplorable Spirifer. Using the Fateful tools and options available and trading in connections from the Devils has given an effective EpA of 1.95 via Unfinished Business in Spite, harvesting a notable Hotel, and the odd Criminal favour. The EpA I expect from this grind is 1.85, suggesting that the Spite action yields closer to 67 Souls per Action (at Shadowy 251) than my guess of 63.

Given that stealing souls in Spite gives 1-120 Souls, and that Storynexus doesn’t seem to have any type of weighted RNG, the average outcome is almost certainly 60.5 Souls per action. This puts spirifage at 1.72 EPA, increasing to 1.74 when turning in C: Hell in the Forgotten Quarter. (This would presumably increase further once Hell gets converted to use favours.) Harvesting the hotel is very profitable but due to the inherent unpredictability of cards can’t be accurately counted towards a base grind’s EPA. Likewise, including spare Criminal favours that happen to be exchanged for Souls is even less predictable. After all, what happens when they add or remove cards? Hallowmas adds an Abundant card for example - that changes how often you’ll draw specific profitable cards, so they can’t be measured as appearing at a constant rate relative to the base grind.

Forgotten Quarter expeditions for shrines of the Deep Blue Heaven are the next regular action sync. Docks favours fuel these. A Taciturn Mynah, our Mayor, The Docks card, the odd Polite Invitation, and a Fateful reward card all contribute. After 123 trips, my EpA is 2.38 with an average of 52.81 echos per expedition.

I assume you’re referring to one of the ending cards from The Gift? Isn’t that the one that costs 50 Whispered Hints per Docks favour? The moment you run out of Hints on hand, the EPA goes way down.

I flip most of my cards in The Flit, waiting for the ability to call in favours. Once one is in hand, it is back to the Forgotten Quarter where I provide public lectures to the Scandalous, Revolutionary, and or Elite of London. Bohemian connections are then called in at The Shuttered Palace and Revolutionaries pay in Proscribed Material. Society connections would also be called in at the Palace, but I am stockpiling those for the eventual conversion to Renown. Two or 3 bottles of Instant Ablution Absolution are then downed to mitigate Suspicion. Effective EpA for a cycle is 2.10.

It’s pretty lucky that you don’t have a high criminal record, as that outright makes Instant Ablution Absolution useless. I’m also surprised you don’t draw cards in Lodgings, given that the two location-specific cards are both highly profitable rather than having any pointless cards dilute your deck.

Favour trading is another big chunk of my actions. The Rubbery favours are traded 7 at a time to the Tomb Colonists (preferably) or the Constables. Criminal favours are traded in 5 at a time to the Constables - excess of 5 are traded for Souls (An Implausible Penance) or Honey (A merry sort of crime).

Why trade in Rubbery favours to the Tomb-Colonists? According to my math they’re the worst option, assuming the wiki’s right of course. The Tomb-Colonists and Constables give the exact same monetary reward but the Constables give a Suspicion reduction while the Tomb-Colonists gives a slight Wounds increase. Unless you’ve found some highly profitable use for the Carnival Tickets, those are irrelevant. I also get higher EPA for trading in 5 favours at once rather than 7. In addition, again assuming the wiki’s right, it’s actually more profitable to turn in Rubbery favours via the Revolutionaries conflict card. That gives 18.80 E at 5 favours and 24.40 E at 7 favours, compared to 17.50 E and 22.5 E for the other two factions.

Tomb Colonist favours are traded to Society. I do not favour the Collection of Curiosity grind here. Going Gentle has an EpA of 4.14 when traded in 7 at a time, and CoC only has an EpA of 1.81. If some Dramatic Tension is raised in The Cave, EpA for the CoC grind (via Wilmot’s End) goes to at least 2.5 and then I will trade for it.

Wait a moment, is the wiki correct when it says cashing out through Going Gentle giving Greyfields 1882? If so that’s ridiculously more profitable than other conflict cards, wow. That would also make it the only conflict card more profitable when trading in 7 favours.[/quote]

Comments in bold.

19

Calling in favors with revolutionaries is ridiculously profitable. Not counting bohemian/society gain and using social actions to reduce suspicion it’s ~2.62 EPA for an 11 card cycle (12 actions of lecturing + 3 of social actions will pay for 1.5 flit call ins, so essentially 10 actions + turn in), and since it’s a standard frequency card it’ll happen often. The lodgings cards pale in comparison (neath’s mysteries is 4 EPA but only counts for 1 action, and commotion above is rare frequency).
edited by Kaijyuu on 10/25/2016

20

Except, you know, for the morality cost for helping the Liberation of Night!