4/29, Lost 228, expected range 203-236. Home stretch!
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01/05 228 lost. Range 206-240 so high end of mid. ~550 remain, so if not next week, I may need to throw a few tears into them, just for safety.
May 1st, down 215, a little on the low end. Noman can handle two more weeks without problem and it wouldn’t take too much to stretch it to a third, so should be fine unless they decide to delay Whitsun to rather cruelly late this year. Looking forward to finally reaching it, though!
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May 2nd.
You’ve lost 240 x Noman’s Friend (new total 666 - The Noman is pristine).
Maxing out loss on the next to TtH would be 518. If we need to go longer it’d take a toll on the tears stock.
Same, I’ve got enough to make it 2 more TTHs easy, but probably can’t make it for a third. (Techically possible if I roll near-minumum all 3 weeks, but vanishingly unlikely.) But so far Whitsun has never been so late that I’ll need 3 more TTHs.
TtH visited on May 2nd at 02:32 UTC:
The predicted range was 208-242, so this roll was exactly on average.
And we have a date for Whitsun! It’ll start on the 14th, so I do in fact have to make it through two TTHs, but not three. (Wednesday TTH for me)
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That’s later than any other Whitsun has been (9th through 11th)! I’m fortunate enough to have a Friday TtH so no difference to me.
Looks like I’ve been negligent in maintaining my records here.
27 Mar: You’ve lost 150 x Noman’s Friend (expected range 143 - 174)
3 Apr: You’ve lost 174 x Noman’s Friend (expected range 155 - 186)
10 Apr: You’ve lost 175 x Noman’s Friend (expected range 167 - 208)
17 Apr: You’ve lost 216 x Noman’s Friend (expected range 180 - 211)
24 Apr: You’ve lost 211 x Noman’s Friend (expected range 192 - 223)
1 May: You’ve lost 236 x Noman’s Friend (expected range 204 - 235)
My 17 April melt is anomalously high. Actually higher than the week before, and outside of the expected range.
Maybe I’ll actually do what I threatened at the top, and make a plot of expected vs actual melt. I’m suspecting there’s a normal distribution instead of uniform.
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Ouch, good luck! Glad it’s not 3, at least.
This is definitely later than I was expecting - though, if I look at the calendar’s timing of Thursdays, I suppose it’s not that unexpected (but IIRC they have sometimes done Mondays, so I’d have thought if they weren’t doing this week, they’d do next Monday)! I’m Friday, so if I do it first day, I only need to get through the one TTH. But I know I’m going to be quite busy that day, so I’m glad I can handle two, just in case.
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5/6, Lost 247, expected 215-248. Near-maximal loss.
Still have plenty left to handle the 1 TTH that I need before whitsun, the end is in sight.
We’ve got three weeks of Tears at the Ratket in case of an emergency (or if like me you’re still building up the resources for a Memory next year).
08/05 lost 230. Range 220 to 251 so not bad.
May 8th, lost 234, just about average.
May 8, lost 250, new total is 252. Won’t last another week, which is ok because the finish line is almost here.
TtH visited for the last time on May 9th at 02:32 UTC:
The predicted range was 220-254, so this roll was close to the average.
I’ll post a final report after dinner at De Gustibus on Thursday!
5/13, You’ve lost 253 x Noman’s Friend (new total 204 - The Noman is pristine). Expected loss 227-260, so near the top of the range again, the last few weeks have been above average.
But this should be the last one - Whitsun tomorrow!
Over the course of the season I’ve had 19 TTH visits. According to the formula, the minimum possible loss was 2225, the maximum possible loss was 2852, and the average expected loss was 2539. My actual total loss was 2578; starting from 2782 NF and ending with 204.
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Nom nom nom.
Whitsun is here!
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Congratulations to all cannibals/murderers! 
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Oh no. Now that it’s here, this is awful. But I can’t back out now…
Okay, that wasn’t so bad as I feared, felt more like taking it back into myself so its memories aren’t lost than just murdering it for a novel flavour. But sad. How brutal life is, that everything we love is mortal.
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Truly a delicious friend.
Its amusing that I’ve been able to fuse with myself twice in one week.
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