# Noman Cost & Melt Rate Tracking (2023) **URL:** \ **Category:** Fallen London\ **Created:** [January 5, 2023, 2:32pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057 "2023-01-05T14:32:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [March 3, 2023, 4:46pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/62 "2023-03-03T16:46:37Z")
> [@skinnyman](#): > > You do have few extra Tears on your hand, right? I have 2 Tears and 28 Airags, so if that May 12th figure looks a little too high I could drop it down. But by then, melts are expected to be 237-270 so to get the NEXT week down to 0% I’d need ~31 tears to catch up, and then about 20 more Tears to keep pace for the next week, then 24, then 27… It’s quite a lot, although 6000 Echoes for an extra week of life sounds like a deal, doesn’t it? No, I think I’ll accept my Noman’s ephemeral (that means “only lasting 4 months”, right?) existence and look forward to next year. This was a very successful proof-of-concept considering how powerful Déjeuneige became despite me leaving London frequently to grind more Night-Whispers and Storm Threnodies, and stopping with 5+ days of perfectly good Snow-application remaining. Just imagine what could be done if one were to start planning this earlier than November! ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2023, 2:37pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/63 "2023-03-10T14:37:18Z")
10th March, ~14:21 UTC: Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 138 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1786/2500) A high roll, but last week’s was low, so all’s well. Here’s our melts this year, and the graph’s likely going to be less exciting going forward. ![image](https://community.failbettergames.com/uploads/default/original/3X/c/2/c2cebee4b47357cc1943448ad538a44998d6197c.png) ---
**Author:** ![hwoosh](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/hwoosh/32/447_2.png) [@hwoosh](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/hwoosh)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2023, 8:12pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/64 "2023-03-10T20:12:41Z")
Oops, looks like I neglected to post last week’s melt values. Here are both this week and last: Acct 1: 3 Mar., 14:43 UTC: lost 112 NF Acct 2: 3 Mar…, 14:43 UTC: lost 116 NF * * * Acct 1: 10 Mar., 14:43 UTC: lost 128 NF Acct 2: 10 Mar…, 14:43 UTC: lost 122 NF ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2023, 8:24pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/65 "2023-03-10T20:24:27Z")
Thank you, now my data points are not quite so lonely! Semi-related, but the tendency towards Friday “Times, the Healer” is still a fascinating phenomenon to see visually. ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2023, 2:31pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/66 "2023-03-17T14:31:42Z")
17th March, ~14:21 UTC: Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 155 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1631/2500) _10% chance of melting on May 12th, but at least they got to be a pirate._ ---
**Author:** ![hwoosh](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/hwoosh/32/447_2.png) [@hwoosh](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/hwoosh)\ **Post date:** [March 18, 2023, 6:43am UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/67 "2023-03-18T06:43:34Z")
Acct 1: 17 Mar., 14:43 UTC: lost 136 NF Acct 2: 17 Mar…, 14:43 UTC: lost 156 NF Last week for Acct 1, as it only has 107 NF left after that. ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2023, 2:38pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/68 "2023-03-24T14:38:01Z")
24th March, ~14:21 UTC: Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 158 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1473/2500) _7-8 melts remain._ ---
**Author:** ![skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/skinnyman/32/372_2.png) [@skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/skinnyman)\ **Post date:** [March 24, 2023, 2:51pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/69 "2023-03-24T14:51:53Z")
> [@elderfleur](#): > > _7-8 melts remain._ Well, this means, your white friend will surely catch the 12th of May! 🥳 :heartfl: ---
**Author:** ![hwoosh](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/hwoosh/32/447_2.png) [@hwoosh](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/hwoosh)\ **Post date:** [March 25, 2023, 12:29am UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/70 "2023-03-25T00:29:59Z")
Acct 2: 24 Mar., 14:43 UTC: lost 173 NF And this is the last week for Acct 2! Only 90 NF remains, so I shall be popping the little bastard for that tasty Elemental Secret posthaste. ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2023, 4:01pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/71 "2023-03-31T16:01:20Z")
31st March, ~14:21 UTC: Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 168 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1305/2500) Not bad rolls, but not good enough rolls, which is making May 12th more likely as a melt day! 942-1112 by May 5th 1167-1371 by May 12th 1405-1643 by May 19th Although, a mere 6 Tears of the Bazaar could, on average, bump that up another week… _edit: reminder to self, don’t do math while sick_ ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [April 7, 2023, 2:37pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/72 "2023-04-07T14:37:03Z")
7th April, ~14:21 UTC: Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 183 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1122/2500) ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [April 14, 2023, 2:48pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/73 "2023-04-14T14:48:53Z")
14th April, ~14:21 UTC: Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 208 x Noman’s Friend (new total 914/2500) _602 - 704 by May 5th_ _827 - **963** by May 12th_ _(4 Tears on average to guarantee)_ _ **1065** - **1235** by May 19th_ _(26 Tears on average to guarantee)_ ---
**Author:** ![catherineraymond](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/catherineraymond/32/106_2.png) [@catherineraymond](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/catherineraymond)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2023, 4:24pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/74 "2023-04-16T16:24:16Z")
Wow. That’s dedication! ---
**Author:** ![skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/skinnyman/32/372_2.png) [@skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/skinnyman)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2023, 7:40am UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/75 "2023-04-18T07:40:37Z")
Go and grab those 4 tears!! Did you get Déjeuneige on the 7th of January? ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2023, 12:54pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/76 "2023-04-18T12:54:18Z")
January 6th, right after my Time the Healer. And the Tears will wait another week or 2, I think; if I get a low roll next week that saves 2 whole Tears; if I get a low roll two weeks in a row, no Tears are needed! ---
**Author:** ![skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/skinnyman/32/372_2.png) [@skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/skinnyman)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2023, 2:14pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/77 "2023-04-18T14:14:56Z")
> [@elderfleur](#): > > And the Tears will wait another week or 2 I only meant to have them ready in case of an emergency. Glad to hear you’re ready! > [@elderfleur](#): > > January 6th, right after my Time the Healer Uhuuuu!!! 102 days! Tomorrow it will beat my record so big congratulations! :heartfl: There are no records of any Noman staying alive more so you’re setting history. ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2023, 8:04pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/78 "2023-04-21T20:04:14Z")
21st April, ~14:21 UTC: Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 203 x Noman’s Friend (new total 711/2500) _~less than 3 tears to get an extra week, now._ ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [April 28, 2023, 3:28pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/79 "2023-04-28T15:28:56Z")
28th April, ~14:21 UTC: Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 229 x Noman’s Friend (new total 482/2500) You’ve gained 13 x Noman’s Friend (new total 495/2513) You’ve gained 18 x Noman’s Friend (new total 513/2531) _Two Tears to ensure 7 more days; a fair trade._ ---
**Author:** ![skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/skinnyman/32/372_2.png) [@skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/skinnyman)\ **Post date:** [May 2, 2023, 12:07pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/80 "2023-05-02T12:07:02Z")
_nervously looking for Whitsun… BAM, another Evolution chapter!_ ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [May 3, 2023, 2:59pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/81 "2023-05-03T14:59:32Z")
No evolution tie-ins, of course, although I like to believe my Noman is there with us in that weird ship looking at jellyfish. And the text from the Steppes reminds me of the SSeas option to send your Snow Child on a ship heading into the East; shame we can’t presently do that in FL. Even if it involved expensive set-up and they’d still be gone I think a lot of people would enjoy that. But maybe, just maybe, with Irem being announced as a potential port… [Previous page](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057.md?page=3) [Next page](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057.md?page=5)