# Noman Cost & Melt Rate Tracking (2023) **URL:** \ **Category:** Fallen London\ **Created:** [January 5, 2023, 2:32pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057 "2023-01-05T14:32:32Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2023, 2:32pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/1 "2023-01-05T14:32:32Z")
It’s that magical time of year again, where we make new friends and, as thermodynamics demands, lose them. It’s a yearly tradition to track Noman Melts (see [2022](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2022/20264), [2021](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-melt-rate-tracking-2021/19915), [2020](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-melt-rate-tracking-2020/19444), [2019](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/nomans-friend-melt-rate-tracking-2019/18975), [2018](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/nomans-friend-melt-rate-tracking-2017/18163), [2017](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/the-ironoman-marathon-season-2/16973), [2016](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/the-ironoman-marathon/15057) ) and this year is no exception. We expect the melt rates and costs will match last year’s formulas, but getting data and predicting patterns is only half the fun of making friends. When posting your melt loss, the time may be relevant as we expect the costs and melts increase every day at 9:00 am UT. Best of luck and have fun! Please note the forecasts below (and on the wiki) are only meant to advise you and may not be completely accurate since: (1) The future hasn’t happened yet (2) These figures depend on the costs and melts behaving the same as last year, and (3) The melt estimates are based on our own data and may be missing some outliers at either end. You may get a result slightly outside these bounds, but as a consolation prize you get to help correct our estimates! **Seven Day Noman Cost Forecast** ([see the wiki for a full table](https://fallenlondon.wiki/wiki/The_Noman/Noman_Cost)): - **Jan 29** : **CLOSED** **Seven Day Noman Loss Forecast** ([see the wiki for a calculator](https://fallenlondon.wiki/wiki/Noman%27s_Friend/NomansFriendCalculators)) - **Feb 03** : 54 - 87 ToL - **Feb 04** : 56 - 88 ToL - **Feb 05** : 57 - 90 ToL - **Feb 06** : 59 - 92 ToL - **Feb 07** : 61 - 94 ToL - **Feb 08** : 63 - 96 ToL - **Feb 09** : 64 - 98 ToL - **Feb 10+** : lots! But you can get your tattoo on the 9th, so why worry? ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2023, 1:16pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/2 "2023-01-06T13:16:33Z")
6th January, ~8:01 UTC: Noman “BoucheAmuse” lost 20 x Noman’s Friend (new total 80/100) 6th January, ~8:37 UTC: Noman “Apéritif” lost 31 x Noman’s Friend (new total 74/105) Rough start, but still within our range! ---
**Author:** ![skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/skinnyman/32/372_2.png) [@skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/skinnyman)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2023, 2:25pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/3 "2023-01-06T14:25:17Z")
> [@elderfleur](#): > > Noman “Apéritif” Wow, I love it! 🤣 ---
**Author:** ![psgarak](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/psgarak/32/30_2.png) [@psgarak](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/psgarak)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2023, 6:52pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/4 "2023-01-06T18:52:42Z")
6th January, 13:00 UTC. You’ve lost 29 x Noman’s Friend (new total 71). ---
**Author:** ![tintinnabulum](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/tintinnabulum/32/176_2.png) [@tintinnabulum](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/tintinnabulum)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2023, 8:59pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/5 "2023-01-06T20:59:56Z")
6 January, 3:30 US Eastern (which is 8:30PM UTC? right?), You’ve lost 30 x Noman’s Friend (new total 70 - A little time remains to the Noman) ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [January 8, 2023, 3:39pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/6 "2023-01-08T15:39:07Z")
8th January, ~8:35 UTC: Noman “Confit de Moi” lost 21 x Noman’s Friend (new total 136/157) ---
**Author:** ![skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/skinnyman/32/372_2.png) [@skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/skinnyman)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2023, 2:19pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/7 "2023-01-13T14:19:35Z")
13th January, 14:00 GMT: You’ve lost 25 x Noman’s Friend. ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2023, 2:38pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/8 "2023-01-13T14:38:26Z")
13th January, ~8:01 UTC: Noman “BoucheAmuse” lost 17 x Noman’s Friend (new total 81/118) 13th January, ~8:37 UTC: Noman “Apéritif” lost 32 x Noman’s Friend (new total 78/141) 13th January, ~14:21 UTC: Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 22 x Noman’s Friend (new total 1626/1648) ---
**Author:** ![psgarak](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/psgarak/32/30_2.png) [@psgarak](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/psgarak)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2023, 2:49pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/9 "2023-01-13T14:49:33Z")
13th January, 14:01 UTC: You’ve lost 32 x Noman’s Friend (39 remains). I seem to be rolling high numbers and certainly won’t last another week. Fortunately I don’t expect to need it; Noman Knows is already up to 12. ---
**Author:** ![KenShi](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/kenshi/32/47_2.png) [@KenShi](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/KenShi)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2023, 6:36pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/10 "2023-01-13T18:36:08Z")
11th January, lost 26 x Noman’s Friend (new total 74). ---
**Author:** ![kiptoo](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/kiptoo/32/101_2.png) [@kiptoo](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/kiptoo)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2023, 11:31pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/11 "2023-01-13T23:31:42Z")
Fri Jan 13 2023 00:04:40 GMT - lost 18 Friend ---
**Author:** ![tintinnabulum](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/tintinnabulum/32/176_2.png) [@tintinnabulum](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/tintinnabulum)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2023, 2:32am UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/12 "2023-01-14T02:32:54Z")
Fri Jan 13, 3:30 US EST, You’ve lost 32 x Noman’s Friend (new total 38) ---
**Author:** ![pohjan](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/pohjan/32/153_2.png) [@pohjan](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/pohjan)\ **Post date:** [January 14, 2023, 9:49am UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/13 "2023-01-14T09:49:32Z")
11th January, 12:17 GMT, lost 24 x Noman’s Friend ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [January 15, 2023, 5:13pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/14 "2023-01-15T17:13:03Z")
15th January, ~8:35 UTC: Noman “Confit de Moi” lost 48 x Noman’s Friend (new total 88/157) ---
**Author:** ![KenShi](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/kenshi/32/47_2.png) [@KenShi](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/KenShi)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2023, 10:27am UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/15 "2023-01-18T10:27:52Z")
18th January, 10:26 GMT, lost 52 x Noman’s Friend (new total 22). Ouch. ---
**Author:** ![DarkSquirrel](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/darksquirrel/32/16781_2.png) [@DarkSquirrel](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/DarkSquirrel)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2023, 12:43pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/16 "2023-01-18T12:43:42Z")
18th January, 13:42 CET, lost 53 x Noman’s Friend (new total 47). ---
**Author:** ![kiptoo](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/kiptoo/32/101_2.png) [@kiptoo](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/kiptoo)\ **Post date:** [January 18, 2023, 6:42pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/17 "2023-01-18T18:42:57Z")
17th: Lost 28 friend 10th: lost 20 friend ---
**Author:** ![elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/elderfleur/32/446_2.png) [@elderfleur](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/elderfleur)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2023, 2:24pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/18 "2023-01-20T14:24:57Z")
20th January, ~8:01 UTC: Noman “BoucheAmuse” lost 49 x Noman’s Friend (new total 32/118) 20th January, ~8:37 UTC: Noman “Apéritif” lost 57 x Noman’s Friend (new total 24/144) 20th January, ~14:21 UTC: Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 46 x Noman’s Friend (new total 2222/2290) ---
**Author:** ![skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/skinnyman/32/372_2.png) [@skinnyman](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/skinnyman)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2023, 3:56pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/19 "2023-01-20T15:56:55Z")
20th January: You’ve lost 31 x Noman’s Friend > [@elderfleur](#): > > Noman “Déjeuneige” lost 46 x Noman’s Friend (new total 2222/2290) Ah, yes, the phat Noman! I have a feeling that the Whitsun content will involve the hungry club! 😑 It is your duty to find out! Good luck! ---
**Author:** ![tintinnabulum](https://community.failbettergames.com/user_avatar/community.failbettergames.com/tintinnabulum/32/176_2.png) [@tintinnabulum](https://community.failbettergames.com/u/tintinnabulum)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2023, 10:24pm UTC](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057/20 "2023-01-20T22:24:40Z")
20th January, approx 8:30PM UTC-- You’ve lost 41 x Noman’s Friend (new total 7) (Glad I slathered two buckets of lacre onto the little guy over the course of the week…!) [Next page](https://community.failbettergames.com/t/noman-cost-melt-rate-tracking-2023/21057.md?page=2)