Moon League hunt results

Is there anywhere explained how exactly Moon League results are counted? I mean, at first I thought it was really about having higher stats, as indicated by the form, weapons and changes during the duel. And yes, there’s this &quotluck always plays a part&quot but how much? I was in duels when I lost while having 10, 30, 40 points higher. If in the end luck can mess so much then it’s quite frustrating and it generally makes all strategy rather irrelevant. And strategy was the most fun part to me. I know by myself and from talking to another players that it’s a big discouragment from participating.

Okay, here goes; The three Knife-and-Candle stats use Broad 50 scaling, as opposed to, say, mainstats, which use Broad 60. What that means is that if you meet the challenge difficulty exactly, you’ll have 50% odds of passing. So if you have 100 Savage and your opponent has 100 Savage, it’s a 50/50. The actual formula for Broad difficulty is (Scalar) * (Quality Level) / (Difficulty Level)% (You can use the wiki’s Broad calculator if you don’t want to bother busting out your own)

So, for K&C, the Scalar is 50. For social actions, the difficulty level is determined by the stat of the person who receives the attack, and the Quality Level is the quality of the sender; so if you have 100 Savage and you attack someone who has 80 Savage, you have a 62% chance of success. If it were the other way around, with you at 80 Savage attacking against 100, then your odds of success would be 40%.
This does give a slight natural advantage to the attacker (it’s always possible for an attack to succeed, as the minimum chance of success is 1%, but it is also possible to reach 100% odds, albeit difficult)
Note that getting good odds of success as defender is extremely difficult; even with the 300-stat Gambits, you only have roughly an 80% chance (at 120 vs 300) of surviving an attack (i.e. the attacker has a 20% chance of success) . For defense to get 99% odds of success, the attacker would need to be attacking with roughly 10 stat, which… isn’t even possible without ludicrous use of Exotica, and even if you did have 10 stat you definitely wouldn’t be attacking with it. As mentioned above, there’s no way to 100% guarantee your survival as defense; there’s always that 1% chance.

Given that the stats are displayed at the end of a duel, it’s possible to calculate just how likely your victory actually was just by using the formula above. A ten point lead rarely makes much difference; ~55% odds of success. Even a 40 point lead can only be as much as a 70% chance of success (140 vs 100), though that depends on the magnitude of the stat involved (100 vs 60 is a much better 83% chance of success). Getting a guaranteed success is difficult, especially in the Moon League; you need at least twice much stat as them for 100% odds, which isn’t easy given that most duels tend to conclude at the 3-Move mark as soon as attacking becomes available.
edited by Spacemarine9 on 9/13/2014

Thank you very much Spacemarine9 for such detailed answer.

Thanks for that spacemarine. You been to have a look at eternal crusade yet ?

The problem I’m having is that despite having picked Night Lamp form, Challenge a Target! is locked as it says I haven’t picked a form. I can see Baroque, Elusive and Savage in my attribute list, though.

Changing Leagues removes your Form quality, leaving you wtih stats but no ability to actually attack. Just gotta pick a Form again and all shall be well.

Aha! Now, if I can only figure out how to do that…

You need a Knife-opportunity to change your form (or a sense of urgency)

Okay, so just got to wait for the card. Got it!

If you’re doing moon league, a periodic event (was it weekly or biweekly?) gives you A Sense of Urgency. It should be accessible through a pinned storylet accessible in all locations. That said, if you already used your sense of urgency through a card, the storylet disappears.

Edit: derp, didn’t read. Still worth checking.
edited by dismallyOriented on 9/17/2014