is it worth getting into the soul trade?

[harlocke]

[quote=Optimatum]
The Spirifage aspect is definitely worth it though. With a 100% chance on stealing souls in Unfinished Business, it’s approximately 1.80 EPA, and that may go up further once Hell is converted over to Favours. I’m also skeptical of the idea that the Shepherd side is more profitable - that seems very reminiscent of that discussion of EPA vs EOR recently.[/quote]

I think it can be nore profitable, but it relies a lot on card draws. Raising suspicion to just below 9 (with -1 suspicion item) while giving lectures to raise revolutionary, trading those connections in using the flit card. And also trading in all the ample connections the shepherd card itself grants on conflict cards. I can’t confirm that the EPA is higher, since I haven’t done the math myself, but someone else posted their calculations recently.

It’s definitely a lot more effort, even if it is as profitable.

[skinnyman]

@Kaijyuu

A boost of 10-20 pence on your base grind is huuuuuuuuge. Can shave a good 1-2 months off a cider grind. I doubt the Shepard option can top that.

On a different note, I remember Rostygold mentioning that there’s a way to get the Randevouz card faster; how is/was this possible? I’m not interested in farming Favours (never threw away my white raven even when I was grinding Renown).

[quote=Harlocke]
I think it can be nore profitable, but it relies a lot on card draws. Raising suspicion to just below 9 (with -1 suspicion item) while giving lectures to raise revolutionary, trading those connections in using the flit card. And also trading in all the ample connections the shepherd card itself grants on conflict cards. I can’t confirm that the EPA is higher, since I haven’t done the math myself, but someone else posted their calculations recently.

It’s definitely a lot more effort, even if it is as profitable.[/quote]
That would be me and here’s a long discussion.
TLDR: Shepherd (more profitable) if you can log in many times per day and draw many cards and Spirifer if you can’t. To those numbers you can pump the Church cash in when Hell will be converted, but this will probably happen with Spirifer. Difference is that we can’t tell for sure when a Hell favour will be granted (rare succes?).

[xkiv]

So, let’s see, shepherd - all according to me …

Requires: drawing the shepherd card, drawing a looooooooot of cider cards (to max out nightmares), rubbery murders (to abuse scandal), drawing many flit cash-in cards (on top of those used to cash in urchin favours). Draw one card to cash-in society (vs. tomb). Cash-in some bohemians and church.
1000 souls ~~ 16.66 actions
100 infernal contracts ~~ 20 actions
suspicion to 8.8 via public lectures … up to 44 actions, and let’s assume you neutralize all other suspicion in other ways … that’s 660 cp bohemians, 660 cp society, 660 cp revolutionaries
5.5 trade in favours with revolutionaries: 158.4e
enough murdery shenanigans to lose ~500 cp constables (this doesn’t max out scandal) - roughly 5 actions to convert (I think) 20 cp into (3 rubbery favours and then) 12.6e worth of amber: cost 25a, yield 31.5e
optimally ~34 cider cards (your hand will be flooded with red nightmare cards, so have the shepherd card ready first): 85e
wipe with shepherd card: 1a, +500 cp constables, +500 cp society, +500 cp church
cash in society vs. tomb: 1a, worth roughly 26e
cash in church in palace: 4.16 actions, 10e
cash in bohemians in palace: 5.5a: 13.2e

did I forget anything?
action cost: 16.66+20+44+5.5+25+43+1+1+4.16+5.5=165.82a
echo yield: 324.1
1.9545 epa over ~166 actions
So the value of having shepherd card, 44 cider cards, tomb card, and 5.5 flit favour cash-in cards is ~52 echoes.

BTW, in practice, I seem to be able to do this (or even worse, actually) not even every week. It’s not good for sustained profit, I say.

[optimatum]

Yeah, I was guessing something like that would be the case. It’s higher EPA over a bunch of actions in theory, but it requires a lot of effort and drawing a bunch of specific cards at specific times. Plus there’s a risk of misclicks or misreading netting you one CP too many of Suspicion, sending you to prison and (eventually) losing you a good chunk of wealth every time. Not to mention that your numbers require having Cider so for most people the actual EPA is lower.

Let’s use a more generous estimate of pulling this off once a week, and say you use 100 actions per day. Spending 166 actions for 324.1 echoes means there’s 534 actions left each week. Assuming we’re using AotB rather than one of those unusual niche grinds, that’s 534 actions at 1.64 EPA for 875.76 echoes, for a total of 1199.86 echoes in a week. (Not having cider would make this grind more frequent but lower the EPA, so in lieu of a specific time estimate for that, let’s pretend the outcome is similar.) In comparison, spirifage gives 700 actions at 1.80 EPA for a total of 1260 echoes in a week. Thus in our hypothetical world, being a spirifer is clearly more profitable than being a shepherd.

This is, of course, a huge oversimplification. The shepherd grind almost certainly takes longer than a week with Cider, and who knows what the time difference is without Cider. This approximation also does completely ignore all profitable cards outside the shepherd grind. However, spirifers should be drawing profitable cards more often than shepherds anyway, what with the CVR card, nonprofitable location-specific cards, and menace cards all added to shepherds’ decks. Finally, increasing or decreasing the number of actions available each week should proportionally affect the shepherd grind’s frequency… unless any of those cards are lost, for example because more actions can collect overnight than cards. In that case spirifers inevitably benefit more than shepherds.

In summary, I think we would need a full computer simulation of an endgame player’s trimmed deck for accurate numbers, but spirifage certainly seems to be superior.

[quote=xKiv]rubbery murders (to abuse scandal)
enough murdery shenanigans to lose ~500 cp constables (this doesn’t max out scandal) - roughly 5 actions to convert (I think) 20 cp into (3 rubbery favours and then) 12.6e worth of amber: cost 25a, yield 31.5e[/quote]
Could you clarify what you mean by these bits? Also I think you may have made some mistakes regarding the Cider cards - you listed 34 cards during the breakdown, but listed 43 actions when summing actions and mentioned 44 Cider cards at the end.

[harlocke]

There is one major downside to spirifage that nobody’s mentioned. When you grind two years for cider, you won’t raise Empire’s Kingmaker to truly insane levels, all just for the shortcut of a few months.

[skinnyman]

Lovely analysis, but to all these I want to add that with other grinds you need to invest certain AP to cure menaces from profitable cards, I enjoy RPing my character a lot plus a big list of achievements. We have few Criminal Favour cards, Aunt, Velocipede, Hell (before Urchin conversion), Hell vs Churc, etc. Plus, I love big levels of Connections! :D

Here’s a quick copy+paste; sorry, bit busy at the moment. I’ll assume only 32 Public Lectures as Suspicion is pretty common from cards.
Let’s say that I only cash in all the connections it’ll take me 69.66 AP (32 Lectures plus 37.66 materials and Shepherd card), 1.96 AP for Going Gentle (about 51 E; I always have 5+ Tomb favours), 4 AP for Flit Favours (115.2 E), 4.17 AP for Church (10 E), 4 more AP for Bohemians (9.6 E) and one more for Crime or Punishment (25.6 E). All these yield about 211.4 E and total cost is 84.79. I usually do this 2-3 times/week or even more if my Revolutionary connections fall to much under 321. If there’s no rush I just use the previous option which has a better value of connections/AP.

Cider isn’t included here, but those EI have a greater value due to their MW boost; I personally have about 250-300 of those and the same amount of Stolen Kisses. Of course, the extra MW probably doesn’t mean anything once you reach max BDR, but for my 27 it’s a nice reserve; I don’t want to miss a companion or anything else (missing 2 confessions for last companion last Hallowmas).

Next in line will be heists with a new strategy, but after I finish my affair at the Court, the 2 ES that I have plus another which I’ll get soon!
Just few more final thought. I’m able to draw many cards per day and those consume a lot of AP (indirectly as well) and probably only during the weekends I’m able to pursue a long story. Usually in the morning I rush to draw the cards, consume about 12-18 AP, can’t play a long story at work (I want to enjoy and feel the characters, lore and I need to use translate sometimes) so I mostly plan a few tiny grinds to be ahead with anything I’ll need. During the evening I’m probably to tired so I’ll say to myself that tomorrow I’ll pursue that story.
So probably being a Shepherd suits my RP, hoarder instinct, but also my RL schedule! :D

[Saklad5]

I feel the ability to instantaneously wipe all of your Menaces is pretty overpowered, honestly. The massive gains to Society are also extremely useful for anyone with a Salon.

In the end, I recommend Shepherd, unless you are hellbent on efficiency and optimization, and don’t care a bit about the narrative effects of what you are doing.

If you are, I hear the best BDR weapon in the game is only attainable through SMEN. Have fun with that.[li]
edited by Saklad5 on 5/2/2017

[xkiv]

@Optimatum

[quote=xKiv]rubbery murders (to abuse scandal)

Could you clarify what you mean by these bits?
[/quote]

Near the end of rubbery murders, you can (apparently infinitely) repeat:
1 action: pick mr. twitch as the culprit
1 action: change your mind (costs some connection:constables, gives some scandal and 3 favour:rubbery)
(another 3 actions: cash-in the favours for 3*420 amber)

[quote]
Also I think you may have made some mistakes regarding the Cider cards - you listed 34 cards during the breakdown, but listed 43 actions when summing actions and mentioned 44 Cider cards at the end.[/quote]

That’s probably the 44 from suspicion.
Of course you could always use bejewewled stick + goldfish, so it’s not actually that off … except you would have your hand full of red cards way too fast anyway.

[xkiv]

@Skinnyman

Lovely analysis, but to all these I want to add that with other grinds you need to invest certain AP to cure menaces from profitable cards,

I assumed you would do that anyway, since those profitable cards probably aren’t more profitable than what you are doing to raise menaces for the shepherd cycle anyway. Except maybe the hell:church conflict card.

… or even more if my Revolutionary connections fall to much under 321.

Oh ha ha, you think 321 will be enough, that’s cute.
;)

–
(anyway, the main draw of shepherds is the guaranteed way to hit 15 magnanimous, obviously)

[xkiv]

[quote= Saklad]I feel the ability to instantaneously wipe all of your Menaces is pretty overpowered, honestly. The massive gains to Society are also extremely useful for anyone with a Salon.
[/quote]

Meh. You can probably do better (society and bohemians for salon) with just public lectures, flit cashins, and absolution solutions. Probably.

If you are, I hear the best BDR weapon in the game is only attainable through SMEN. Have fun with that.

I do!

[kukapetal]

@Saklad

I feel the ability to instantaneously wipe all of your Menaces is pretty overpowered

Except that there are tons of menace-reducing cards in the deck. I’ve never had trouble with any menaces other than nightmares. It’s not really &quotoverpowered&quot if the problems it solves are barely an issue anyway.

And of course, since my character is a soft-hearted fellow who likes to get people their souls back, he’s also a soft-hearted fellow who likes to help orphaned kids so he doesn’t have a salon.

That said, if there were more options to actually see the good you’re doing instead of just a single storylet, I might find being a soul shepherd emotionally satisfying, which would at least partially make up for the financial disappointment. I’d especially like a chance to get the soulless messenger his soul back. The poor thing looks so miserable.

[optimatum]

@Saklad

I feel the ability to instantaneously wipe all of your Menaces is pretty overpowered, honestly. The massive gains to Society are also extremely useful for anyone with a Salon.

In my experience, not really on either front.

As an endgame player I barely ever have to go out of my way to deal with menaces. I gain Suspicion from getting Criminal Favours and the Velocipede Squad extension card among things, but conflict cards reduce that faster than it builds up. Nightmares build up from a few different sources, but the Nadir keeps that well in check. (And with the new ES option for Urchins Favours, I’m actually too low on Nightmares. It’s interfering with my grinding C: Masters with the Interpreter of Dreams rare success.) Scandal builds up from Rubbery Favours but the Hell/Urchins conflict card deals with almost all of that. The Aunt action refresh card gives slow Wounds buildup that don’t get dealt with through other methods, but that’s slow enough the last time I had to spend actions lowering Wounds was two or three months ago.

Large MW gains are also pretty useless after a while. There really aren’t enough Notability uses in the game. I’ve actually stopped maintaining it entirely to get rid of the Unsigned Message card, since I can’t actually do anything with it 99% of the time.

[quote= Saklad]In the end, I recommend Shepherd, unless you are hellbent on efficiency and optimization, and don’t care a bit about the narrative effects of what you are doing.

If you are, I hear the best BDR weapon in the game is only attainable through SMEN. Have fun with that.[/quote]

I’m hellbent on efficiency and optimization so I’m willing to make the sacrifice of selling millions of souls to devils, especially given those souls would have just been sold to devils by shady spirifers anyways. As opposed to me, who’s clearly morally upstanding - I’m teaching all these other spirifers that crime doesn’t pay (for them).

And, well, efficiency and optimization is a means to an end. Sometimes that end is dumping seven Fluke-Cores down a well for three sentences of unique text. Sometimes that end is max BDR without a purpose. (And sometimes the means requires sacrificing every single lodging I own and buying back the useful ones so I can clear out my deck.)

[quote=xKiv]Near the end of rubbery murders, you can (apparently infinitely) repeat:
1 action: pick mr. twitch as the culprit
1 action: change your mind (costs some connection:constables, gives some scandal and 3 favour:rubbery)
(another 3 actions: cash-in the favours for 3*420 amber)[/quote]
Wait, does that require any cards? Otherwise that would be a pretty ridiculous grind.

[skinnyman]

[quote=xKiv]Near the end of rubbery murders, you can (apparently infinitely) repeat:
1 action: pick mr. twitch as the culprit
1 action: change your mind (costs some connection:constables, gives some scandal and 3 favour:rubbery)
(another 3 actions: cash-in the favours for 3*420 amber)[/quote]
Care to pop a PM with more details?

@xKiv

I assumed you would do that anyway, since those profitable cards probably aren’t more profitable than what you are doing to raise menaces for the shepherd cycle anyway. Except maybe the hell:church conflict card.

@Kukapetal

[quote= Saklad]I feel the ability to instantaneously wipe all of your Menaces is pretty overpowered

Except that there are tons of menace-reducing cards in the deck.[/quote]
I’m sure Saklad was talking about the extra AP you need to invest in curing those menaces.

@xKiv

Oh ha ha, you think 321 will be enough, that’s cute.;)

That’s really my starting point which is equal to 0. Issue with Revolutionaries is that I draw many cards and it’s not always that easy to maintain 321+; other easily grinded connections are way higher. I do have other grinds and stories to finish!

@Optimatum

Large MW gains are also pretty useless after a while. There really aren’t enough Notability uses in the game. I’ve actually stopped maintaining it entirely to get rid of the Unsigned Message card, since I can’t actually do anything with it 99% of the time.

Missed the last companion during Hallowmas by two confessions and I’m bit of a hoarder! I want everything!
edited by Skinnyman on 5/3/2017

[dov]

[quote=Skinnyman][quote=xKiv]Near the end of rubbery murders, you can (apparently infinitely) repeat:
1 action: pick mr. twitch as the culprit
1 action: change your mind (costs some connection:constables, gives some scandal and 3 favour:rubbery)
(another 3 actions: cash-in the favours for 3*420 amber)[/quote]
Care to pop a PM with more details?
[/quote]
I’d appreciate a PM as well.

This is the only Fate story I haven’t purchased, since the consensus has always been hat it’s the weakest.

[kaijyuu]

Large MW gains are also pretty useless after a while. There really aren’t enough Notability uses in the game. I’ve actually stopped maintaining it entirely to get rid of the Unsigned Message card, since I can’t actually do anything with it 99% of the time.

The surprise package from an Unsigned Message is moderately valuable. It’s something like ~5 echoes on average, and will cost you 2 actions. Not the most valuable card in your deck but worth playing. Even if you don’t need money it’s a wide variety of junk, some of which hard to come by.

I’ve been getting my notability up since I started regularly using polite invitations and can maintain it at no additional cost.
edited by Kaijyuu on 5/3/2017

[kukapetal]

What does “AP” stand for again? Sorry, I have trouble keeping up with all the acronyms we use around here :P

[kaijyuu]

“action point” most likely.

[kukapetal]

If that’s the case, then the soul shepherd card actually costs a lot more AP than just using the menace reducing cards as they pop up, because it costs a TON of actions just to grind for the 1000 souls and 100 contracts you need to access the menace nuke. Grinding 100 contracts at 5 contracts per action still uses up 20 actions (the soul grind is a bit more forgiving since the number of souls is different each action, but it usually falls somewhere between 10 and 20 actions.

Other than nightmares, which don’t really have a reliable menace reducing card in the deck, it takes FAR fewer actions to just play the menace reducing card as they come up to keep your menaces low

[skinnyman]

[quote=Kukapetal]If that’s the case, then the soul shepherd card actually costs a lot more AP than just using the menace reducing cards as they pop up, because it costs a TON of actions just to grind for the 1000 souls and 100 contracts you need to access the menace nuke. Grinding 100 contracts at 5 contracts per action still uses up 20 actions (the soul grind is a bit more forgiving since the number of souls is different each action, but it usually falls somewhere between 10 and 20 actions.

Other than nightmares, which don’t really have a reliable menace reducing card in the deck, it takes FAR fewer actions to just play the menace reducing card as they come up to keep your menaces low[/quote]
You have extra connections which can be cashed it or just for bragging/achievements, Souls can be obtained at a great rate from expeditions and, to be honest, I really enjoy seeing those menace cards from time to time. It makes me feel alive, human and not anything similar to other games where, after reaching a point, few things can hurt you.

[xkiv]

[quote=Optimatum]
Wait, does that require any cards? Otherwise that would be a pretty ridiculous grind.[/quote]

No, unless you want to get rid of the scandal or keep up constables. Those would normally stomp it into nonprofitability (worse than AotB, at least).