I am going through the really long string of Heists as of 6 months for now.
It feels that after introduction of new Heist, old one had had their probabilities adjusted. For example, Searing Enigma now feels like 10% rather than 25%, Sleeping Dogs unlucky result led me to losing of 2 Cat-Like thread, rather than one, Clean and Lighted Place doesn’t give lucky result so often too.
Or it’s just RNG being not so kind lately.
I’m having the same issue with SI; only got one from 41 recorded heists. Regarding Sleeping Dogs can’t help you with this as I never play that card and, if you are referring to Snaffle documents, it does seem 50-60%, but RNG can take it’s toll.
Sometimes I fail that option two-three times in a row (different heists, ofc), but I once got success two times on the same heist.
When was this introduced?[li]
Think I started recording my heists around April and got my first SI on the 8th of May after 30 heists.
I am a Heist enthusiast, and on several occasions claimed it to be a better echo grind than CoC (for an end game player, with full gear). The 25% chance of getting SE gave that >2 EPA. Though lately I haven’t seen that SE often as before, and read the comments which stated people are also not seeing them as often as before.
Perhaps just bad luck, perhaps just those with the really bad luck are posting about it, creating bias. But it does FEEL like a change in chances.
Someone decided up there that SE rarity is compromised via Heist and fixed that?
Would love if someone else could also keep tract on that, other than the great work of Skinnyman.
If chances truly were nerfed down, I’d have to withdraw my heartful advice on heists for echo grind.
I usually go on heists a couple times a week. Since I purchased my Overgoat about a month ago, I’ve acquired 7 Engimas, of which at least 2 came from a
expeditions rather than heists. I think I also sold all of my touching love stories, so I’ve gained…250 of them since (this would have been easier to do if I hadn’t just converted a bunch of them to try for the Ariag rare success!) So that’s 31 heists as well.
5 SE to 30 touching love stories (on the chance I had some left over) is a 1/7th chance. It’s definitely not 25% any more, if it ever was.
That said, I would be happy to keep a closer watch on the numbers, for the sake of science.
The Fallen London calculator sheet estimates the chance to be closer to 20% at this point. The earlier 25% chance thrown around might have been an overestimate based on too small a sample size. Or they might have changed it and the sheet doesn’t have enough data to reflect the new odds. I would encourage people to record future heist results on the sheet to help improve its accuracy: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1v-OSVnf1qcRTV89G4Yj4wlo3GY3kxa0y-MpYC07T9-4/edit?usp=sharing