Hi everyone. In a desperate attempt to keep my poor Noman in a non-melty state, I’ve been doing a lot of expeditions recently and I’ve noticed what appears to be a change in the speed of my rival.
Previously rivals seemed to get a point of progress in about 1 in 6 attempts at the ‘slow’ route through the Forgotten Quarter. It used to be touch and go, but I could usually get to the end and slow and steady would win the race. The last five? six? expeditions I did, my rival advanced at a much faster rate, so that they were at progress 8 or 9 by the time I was half way to the destination (this is Gallery of Serpents, a 40 point expedition).
Now, I understand that random is random, but can anyone confirm if they are seeing the same effect, or if the rate has remain unchanged for them?
If expeditions have been nerfed, then I’m just glad I managed to get my Correspondance Stones and Nadir location before the nerf - it would be a lot more expensive now. If it’s just the Gallery of Serpents then it might not be too bad - just factor in the fact that you’ll lose that much more money / supplies.
The one time I did Gallery of Serpents I had to confront my rival too, so I don’t think it’s anything new. Or strange for that matter. If your rival could not catch up to you even during the longest expeditions, there would be no point in having rivals. Confronting is not that expensive even.
Is it a fact, that the slowest option generates less Rival’s Progress overall? I always do “bold approach” to save on actions, and I kind of felt that “buccaneering approach” makes your rival advance faster. But that does not make any sense. You would think that having higher watchful and knowing the Quarters better should help you with keeping ahead of your rivals, not the other way around.
I don’t disagree that it makes sense, but it does feel like something has changed, and recently. I’ve just finished my thirteenth(?) recent expedition and where previously it felt neck-and-neck to the finish line, I’m now being caught up only just past the half-way mark.
It’s not a major problem for me as my stats are better than they were and I can survive the showdown, but if it has changed then it will raise the entry level bar for starting archeologists, and may change the default advice (i.e. go slow because the competition progresses slower that way).
Just wanted some verification to see if anyone else had noticed the difference.
[quote=RandomWalker]I don’t disagree that it makes sense, but it does feel like something has changed, and recently. I’ve just finished my thirteenth(?) recent expedition and where previously it felt neck-and-neck to the finish line, I’m now being caught up only just past the half-way mark.
It’s not a major problem for me as my stats are better than they were and I can survive the showdown, but if it has changed then it will raise the entry level bar for starting archeologists, and may change the default advice (i.e. go slow because the competition progresses slower that way).
Just wanted some verification to see if anyone else had noticed the difference.[/quote]
Nope. If anything, the last few expeditions I did (which were to the Shrine of the Blue Heaven last week) my Rivals were much tardier than usual.
Another oddity? I just did four expeditions to the Shrine, and three of the four resulted in Eyeless Skulls. Has anyone else found the Eyeless Skull "rare" success becoming a lot less rare?
Not really. I did find a few skulls at the end of some Expeditions, but those are outweighed by the regular reward. I think your results will even out as you do more Expeditions.
Yeah, apparently after all of my touting of the Shrine as a great place to grind, the RNG heard me and started giving me the least valuable treasures. My last five routes have all given me results worth 40 echoes or less, well below the average in my record-keeping. Right now I’m just blaming the vagaries of chance, not some twiddling.
RandomWalker, do you remember any more precisely how many progress points into the expedition you had to confront your rivals? If I read "halfway" as ~25 cautious approaches into each expedition and you went on 5 such expeditions, the chance that Rivals’ Progress increases is actually 1/6 is less than a hundred-thousandth of a percent (1- bincdf[525, 95, 1/6]); it’d have to be 3/10 at least for that to be a reasonable result, imo. Even if "halfway" comes out close to 30, it’s still absurdly unlikely, and over 1/4 would be reasonable (~10%).[li] edited by Cordial on 2/6/2014
Between the Cave of Nadir and ten Shrines of Deep Blue Heaven I have done A cautious approach 74 times, and out of those I got increased Rivals’ Progress 17 times. So yeah, I may have looked at some lucky numbers, and even miscalculated, since 17 out of 74 is 23% and not the 17% that would indicate 1 in 6. So every 4th or 5th cautious approach should give Rivals’ Progress.
40 times the Rivals’ Progress wasn’t even mentioned, so perhaps it would be safe to assume that there’s a 50% chance of that rare/alternative success, and then another 50% chance for the regular success to increase Rivals’ Progress, just like it seems to be for bold and buccaneering approaches? That would mean that on average, 1 in 4 successes would increase Rivals’ Progress. If so, then I’ve just been a bit lucky.
On a related issue, I’ve had the worst luck with buying expedition supplies for Whispered Secrets. I used to get two supplies 50% of the time, but last time I bought supplies it was more like 30% of the time or so. It wouldn’t surprise me if they decided to balance that a bit, since that option was so much better than all the others. What do you fellow archaeologists say? Does it seem as if the Rumours of treasure has changed, or was I just really unlucky?
My last several unpredictable treasures were very poor too. But I got my fifth skull today, so I can finally get a Ray-Drenched Cinder and clean my hand of those awful cards. I think I’ll be retiring from running expeditions. Airag is the only item from there that I need now, and it’s just too rare a result to justify running expeditions by itself.
Oh wow, Liberation of Night. First time I ever advanced it. edited by Fhoenix on 2/6/2014
I’m afraid my numbers were rather unscientific - I don’t keep close track of what is happening or the like. Without spoiling fate-locked content, there is a mechanism for hindering your opponent that doesn’t involve a skill check, but costs you some of your reward for completing the expedition. I tend to use that option when it turns up and when my opponent’s progress is 7 or more. Prior to the spate of what now appears to be bad luck, I generally didn’t need that option and when I did need it, my progress tended to be in the 30s. For the last few expeditions, I needed to take that option every time, and progress was in the 20s and my opponent was often 8 or even 9. I then tried an expedition using the 2-point progress option (92% success rate) to see if that would be better (disaster - first time I’ve failed an expedition).
I am now back in the ‘just bad luck’ camp - the expedition I did after the disaster went fine and I didn’t need to give up any reward. I’m just about ready for another try and we’ll see how it goes.
Thanks for the response, everyone.
WIth regards to whispered secrets, it feels as though they may be a touch more stingy, but I really can’t be sure and I may just be projecting.
I take it back. This run, my opponent was at progress 7 by the time I was at progress 20. After resetting back to 1, he was progress 6 by the time I finished.
This was with the cautious approach and taking every non-progressive option when it occurred (i.e. picnics, waiting etc.).
Didn’t have any signs to follow at all this trip, which feels lower than it used to be as well.
Overall, I need more data, but it feels like it’s been nerfed.