Gambling on scrap?

Fallen London
1

So far, whenever one of the Relickers have come around, I’ve asked them to certify some of my scrap - unless I actually wanted to buy something of theirs, anyway. I’m trying to save up for some of their more… exceptional offerings. Now, going by the numbers, the odds are in my favor - losing doesn’t cost you ALL the scrap you bet (only something like 90% of it), and since the odds are listed as ‘Could go either way’, they must be between 50 and 60%. Hence, statistically, you should turn a profit in the long run.

…so far, however, the statistics have endeavored to prove Mark Twain’s classic line true. I’ve lost at least 100 Certifiable scrap on these ‘bets’ already.

Did I miss something in my calculations? Have I merely been unusually misfortunate? Is there really no other way to collect decent amounts of scrap other than flipping cards in The Flit until you get the chance to trade favors with the Urchins?

2

You’ve been misfortunate. I used to get all successful rolls, but recently, I’ve been getting a spate of unsuccessful ones. It all averages out in the end, and you’ll probably get a general overall profit of about 1 scrap an action or so, if my muddled morning calculations are correct.

3

In the long run you’ll make more than you lose, but the short term losses will be too frustrating to be worth it. The best way to make a good amount of scraps is to get all the lodgings which provide 2-4 scraps per action and draw cards in the Flit to trade in favours with the Urchins.

4

Unless you’re in a real hurry, i’d advise against the gamble- it only gives 1 scrap per action on average, and the losses are infuriating.