Well, the old system was easy-peasy, never drowned there, even as a beginner.
In the new, it seems a combination of not yet having identified the cards that lower troubled waters, the limiting of TW to 8 for death or loss of ship, so just the 7-8 gap between safety and total destruction.
And the rather limiting and irritating fact that most ports don’t reset. I was looking forward to the new zeefaring, but for the moment, I’ve decided to go off and do other things until I simmer down a bit.