# Doing the Math

I would imagine, given how many intelligent and dedicated Fallen Londoners there are, that someone has probably taken it upon themselves at some point to test the specific odds of success for each category (straightforward, low-risk, modest, chancy, high-risk, and almost impossible). Since it seems rather a waste to do the necessary testing myself if it’s already been done, I thought I’d ask here.

The other statistic of interest is the “rare” successes found in certain stories, including most of the new item uses. In particular, I’m wondering if the chance of getting a rare success is the same for every action that has them (for example, if the chance of getting a rare success when talking to Mr. Sacks’ orphans is the same as the chance of getting a rare success when trading Third City Relics), or if it can be different. Has anyone done any digging into this?

Regarding the chances to succeed, I believe I saw it listed as 100% for straightforward, 90% for low-risk, 70% for modest, 50% for chancy, 30% for high-risk, and 10% for almost impossible.

I`m reasonably certain from my experience that the lower success cap is 10%, the upper cap is 100%, and outside of these you gain 10% success rate per level. Rare successes have a flat 10% chance. The textual descriptions are:

100% - [color=rgb(51, 153, 102)]straightforward[/color]
90% - [color=rgb(0, 51, 255)]low-risk[/color]
80% - [color=rgb(0, 51, 255)]low-risk[/color]
70% - [color=rgb(255, 255, 0)]modest[/color]
60% - [color=rgb(255, 255, 0)]modest[/color]
50% - [color=rgb(255, 51, 0)]chancy[/color]
40% - [color=rgb(255, 51, 0)]chancy[/color]
30% - [color=rgb(255, 0, 0)]high-risk[/color]
20% - [color=rgb(255, 0, 0)]high-risk[/color]
10% - [color=rgb(204, 0, 153)]almost impossible[/color]

[color=rgb(0, 102, 0)]We used to be public about the difficulty % numbers: we aren’t any more[/color]
[color=#006600]
[/color]
color=#006600 in case we need to tweak them[/color]
color=#006600 because when we were, someone would mail us on average once a week after a run of bad luck to complain that our random number generator was faulty. :-)[/color]
[color=#006600]
[/color]
[color=#006600]
[/color]
[color=#006600]However, rare successes aren’t a flat 10%: they vary by story and circumstance.[/color]

[quote=Alexis Kennedy][color=rgb(0, 102, 0)]We used to be public about the difficulty % numbers: we aren’t any more[/color]
[color=#006600]
[/color]
color=#006600 in case we need to tweak them[/color]
color=#006600 because when we were, someone would mail us on average once a week after a run of bad luck to complain that our random number generator was faulty. :-)[/color]
[color=#006600]
[/color]
[color=#006600]
[/color]
[color=#006600]However, rare successes aren’t a flat 10%: they vary by story and circumstance.[/color][/quote]

That explains my results. I collected the results of a few thousand clicks and poured in some statistical voodoo; but the results never quite converged the way I wanted. If the chances of success for each level of difficult aren’t always identical, that would make sense. They did tend to be within certain ranges though.

Aha, clever. I’ll have to keep that in mind.

Also on the matter of CP gained per successful/unsuccessful Action: exactly, how many? I think I remember something like Straightforward - 1 CP for success/failure; Low-risk - 2 CP success, 1 CP failure; high-risk… Maybe 5 CP success, 3 CP failure? Can’t even remember where I read that T.T

Does anybody have more precise numbers?

[quote=streetfelineblue]Also on the matter of CP gained per successful/unsuccessful Action: exactly, how many? I think I remember something like Straightforward - 1 CP for success/failure; Low-risk - 2 CP success, 1 CP failure; high-risk… Maybe 5 CP success, 3 CP failure? Can’t even remember where I read that T.T

Does anybody have more precise numbers?[/quote]

Straightforward and Low-Risk are 1 CP, Modest is 2, Chancy is 2-3, High Risk is 3 on a failure and 4 on a success, Nearly Impossible is 3 on a failure and 5 on a success.

Thank you very much!

Anyone figured out the specific odds for “matters of luck”? Those Relickers are getting on my nerves. I swear, I’ve tried re-certifying scraps a good six or seven times now and have had one success.

“it could go either way” is supposedly 50%, but I’ve also had far less luck than that.

It can happen… Just today, I failed some 7 modest challenges IN A ROW (That is, burned three Second Chances and still didn’t get a positive result until the fourth try) T.T

I’ve had horrible luck with the relickers as well, they always take my scraps. I’ve stopped trying to re-certify for that very reason.

Even assuming you alternate between success and failure, on average you should make a profit of 2 scraps, since they take 2 less than they give…still, though, not really worth it, especially once you get higher-level lodgings.

That was my thought process, more or less. But it doesn’t seem to be working out.

1 scrap, I think. Assuming it’s a 50% chance, say you recertify twice, once gaining 20 scraps and once losing 18. That’s 2 in 2 actions, so 1 scrap/action - the same as the lowest-level lodgings.

I recertify, but only because I’ve got tons of scraps to chuck around so it doesn’t bother me to lose a few.

My rule is to recertify if losing will cause me to end up with more scraps than I need for my next planned exchange, otherwise take the menace reduction. (Been waiting for the Capering Relicker for a week or so now…)