[quote=Master Polarimini]I performed 100 times each the two actions that give souls (in Spite) and proscribed material (at Watchmaker’s).[/quote]Would you mind sharing what your stats were for these tests?
[quote=Master Polarimini]This is a bit unrelated with Urthdigger’s guide, but considering that it’s about money I just wanted to share a couple statistics I did with the POSI randomized options.
I’m pretty sure someone else did it but I couldn’t find any thread about it, so here’s mine.
I performed 100 times each the two actions that give souls (in Spite) and proscribed material (at Watchmaker’s).
Results:
-
souls: I got an average of 62 souls per action (1.24 echoes). The variance however is high, the standard deviation is ~34 souls, meaning you have 70% probability to get a number of souls between 28 and 96 souls (0.56-1.92 echoes). A pretty big variation. The three lowest results I got in my 100 times are 2, 3 and four, and the three highest are 119 and 117(x2).
-
proscribed materials: I got an average of 26 (1.04 echoes) with a standard deviation of 12 (70% probability of getting between 14 and 38 books that is between 0.56-1.52 echoes). Of course for the proscribed materials each variation costs 0.04 echoes so it’s riskier. The three lowest values I got are 6(x2) and 7 (which I actually got 5 times); the three highest are 45 (once) and 44 (5 times).
edited by Master Polarimini on 3/6/2014[/quote]
thank you. didnt realised there was such a high variance in rewards for the "unfinished business" option. which means if a POSI was looking to grind souls or proscribed material, the non-POSI options might be more reliable?
not sure if this list is still up to date… souls are best stolen in flit(echo per action uncertain), proscribed can be grinded in empress’ court at 0.80 echos/action.
http://echobazaar.wikidot.com/end-game-grinding
btw , dont know if its mentioned anywhere yet but breeding a tomb lion(Labyrinth Of Tigers: 4th Coil) is no longer that profitable because of a reduction of +scandal for the 3 scandalous equipments mentioned, and it take an extra 5 turns to move out of tomb colonies. so its around 106 pence per action now.
Enough to get the 100% success :)
(both statistics are over 200 - with bonuses… do you need the precise number?)
No, not really. But it seems likely that the range depends on your stats, so if they were just enough to get 100% but not close to 250 it might be possible for higher stats to get better results.
excuse me, im just curious… in the Survivor of the Affair of the Box(quality 12 and above) story in Spite, is it possible to continue grinding “A Boxful of Intrigue” to exchange for various items(up to 20 echos worth of mourning candles) even after you’ve complete the whole affair(by spying for one the masters, or publish the tale in a paper) ?
Yes.
I did another round of Unfinished Business tests and I share the results for your curiosity. Now that the Unfinished Business changes the Airs of London perhaps this kind of test can be handier.
As my previous post, the statistics come from the repetition of 100 times the same grinding action:
- Moon Pearl (Watchmaker’s): Moon Pearl is different from the two tests above in having a rare success that gives Aeolian Screams. I got the Scream 14 times out of 100, I guess the probability for this rare success is set at 10 or 15%. With the Aeolian Screams (set of course at 250 pennies), the average income from this action is 1.19 echoes - but the standard deviation is very high due to the Screams: 0.59 echoes.
Cryptic Clues (Spite): I got an average of 59 Clues (1.18 echoes) with a standard deviation of 35. Very High! This means that you have a 70% probability to get between 0.48-1.88 echoes (!). The three lowest values I got were 2 Clues (twice) and 4 Clues; the highest three 119 and 115 (twice).
This seems to be a less stable option of the Shadowy Unfinished Business than Souls.
- Glim (Spite): the Glim grinding is characterized by a much higher stability of the results: I get an average of 109 with a standard deviation of 6 (translating in 70% possibility to get between 1.03 and 1.15 echoes). All my 100 values are within 101 and 120 glim.
I actually don’t know if the range depends on stats. It doesn’t seem to me, at least not strongly.
edited by Master Polarimini on 3/10/2014
Does the distribution appear to be uniform, Master Polarimini?
[li]
Actually, it’s quite good. It’s important to keep in account that, in fact, this storylet can give a magnificent diamond + 44 diamonds on a rare success.
I did out some math, but it ends up not beating 142ppa when using the university storyline for cryptic clue gain (it clocks in around 137, assuming 10% rare success chance)
But if anyone knows a better way of getting cryptic clues, this could become quite lucrative. It’s certainly better than selling off your cryptic clues - the act of buying diamonds itself is ~664ppa (assuming 10% rare success), minus the sell price of 200 clues comes to ~264.[/li][li]
[/li][li]Edit: I did this out with 59/action, as per the numbers given by Polarimini, and it becomes ~151ppa. This is worth keeping an eye on[/li][li]
edited by Khryseis on 3/11/2014
FYI mutton island’s wind now raises the clock and only adds 1 CP of stormy eyed
I was doing some academic work on the value of writing a short story in veilgarden, and I did about 75% of my calculations. They’re not finalized, and unfortunately I’ve got some personal life stuff which is getting in the way of me finishing this. :(
So I’m going to leave you all the two Google Docs I was using to do my calculations. They’re open, so anyone with the link can edit it, so feel free to make your own deductions/finish it/whatever.
My own conclusion? The best rate you can get from writing is about 48 PPA (without using items). Using items doesn’t look worth it, but I could easily be wrong about that. Sorry for not finishing this, everyone, but I hope it helps a little regardless.
Here’s the <spreadsheet>, and my <descriptions> of some logic. Apologies if someone already did this and I’m retreading ground.
[li]
[quote=ShadeJackrabbit]Using items doesn’t look worth it, but I could easily be wrong about that.[/quote]Using items is definitely worth it, and going for Potentially Masterful should yield the most money. But writing short stories for money isn’t really worth it in the first place. Not compared to other activities.
10 Actions to get 10 x Manuscript Page with Potential 20
21 Actions: Incorporate romance -> Potential 62
5 Actions: Compromising Document -> Potential 72
4 Actions: Include something exotic -> Potential 80
1 Action: Finish -> Potentially Exceptional = 60% x 60 + 40% x 30 = 48 Echoes
41 Actions to get 48 Echoes - 2,10 - 2,50 - 2 = 41,40 Echoes (101 ppa)
10 Actions to get 10 x Manuscript Page with Potential 20
21 Actions: Incorporate romance -> Potential 62
5 Actions: Compromising Document -> Potential 72
5 Actions: Include something exotic -> Potential 82
4 Actions: Add a dash of zee-adventure! -> Potential 90
2 Actions: Weave in esoteric elements -> Potential 100
1 Action: Finish -> Potentially Masterful = 60% x 80 + 40% x 60 = 48 + 24 = 72 Echoes
48 Actions to get 72 - 2,10 - 2,50 - 2,50 - 2 - 5 = 57,90 Echoes (121 ppa)
I suppose it would be more accurate to include not only the cost of the the items being used, but also the Actions it might take to get them. But that depends on too many other variables for me to bother with.
Sorry I completely skipped this post!
I didn’t check formally, but the distribution seems kind of gaussian more than uniform.
So it looks like it could be useful pre-POSI, then? I recall writing a lot more back then.[li]
[quote=ShadeJackrabbit][quote=Gillsing]
41 Actions to get 48 Echoes - 2,10 - 2,50 - 2 = 41,40 Echoes (101 ppa)
48 Actions to get 72 - 2,10 - 2,50 - 2,50 - 2 - 5 = 57,90 Echoes (121 ppa)
[/quote]
So it looks like it could be useful pre-POSI, then? I recall writing a lot more back then.[/quote]
At the very least, it’s great for grinding Persuasive with minimal menace gain–if you only use the actions that use up pages rather than the ones that cost actual items, it’s more than possible to grind infinitely (albeit without notable gain through Potential once you hit the cap), so long as you have patience and actions. Not the best loop in the world, but decent for pre-PoSI.
At the very least, it’s great for grinding Persuasive with minimal menace gain–if you only use the actions that use up pages rather than the ones that cost actual items, it’s more than possible to grind infinitely (albeit without notable gain through Potential once you hit the cap), so long as you have patience and actions. Not the best loop in the world, but decent for pre-PoSI.[/quote]The numbers I listed do rely on using items, and the Persuasive challenges for using those items wouldn’t be trivial to a non-PoSI, unless they happened to be overqualified for the Persuasive 100 requirement. Which could indeed be the case, as I was overqualified for the Watchful 100 requirement, and could therefore take advantage of the much more lucrative options at the University (177 ppa for investigations + message drops in the Flit). For a less Persuasive non-PoSI who wants to grind Persuasive without getting menaces or using items, I’d take a look at The Empress’ Court, where The Corruption of Youth seems to offer that.
[li]
Polythreme can be pretty valuable, offering up to 2.17 Echo per actions, with a cycle requiring 12 actions, and just a minimum amount of luck, and offer a good opportunity to grind some Shadowy CP without a menace gain. Considering many will go there it is somewhat of a pity to waste time there when it could be profitably used.
I am not going to descend in accurate explanations, because two users already did, and with better eloquence than I could.
So go take a look at Urthdigger and Seberin posts on the matter, I’ll just share a short series of actions to gain the optimal amount of Echos.
I’ll refer to Investigating and Fascinating with "Venture", to keep thing shorter.
After you’ll land you will want to either start to
"Write of you Polythremic travels" [A guided tour of Polythreme] -Fascinating, or
"Spying on Polythreme" [A little spy work] -Investigating.
This is because they both unlock cards that will let you advance your Venture with a skill check instead of a luck check, but we need to gain 12/13 levels of the chosen Venture to start them.
The important thing is Managing your deck: there are only 6 cards.
2 Raise Investigating and lower Fascinating:
-The Temple: good odds. +10Cp on Success / +1-5Cp on Failure.
-The Ruin: it could go either way. +15Cp on Success / 0 Cp on Failure.
2 Raise Fascinating and lower Investigating:
-At the Market: good odds. +10Cp on Success / +1-5CP on Failure.
-The Priest : it could go either way +15Cp on Success / 0 CP on Failure.
2 Raise a meager quantity of one Venture or the other, with luck checks "it could go either way". Let’s avoid those.
-The Masked man: can gain 5Cp of both Ventures but Failures give nothing.
-The Wax wind comes: can gain either 5Cp of one Venture or the other.
2 Cards are skill checks, straightforward at 200, respectively Shadowy and Persuasive.
-Fractious Furniture: Investigating: +10Cp on Success, nothing on Failure.
-The Zailors at Polythreme’s Harbour: Fascinating: :+10CP on Success. nothing on Failure.
Keep in your hand the cards that give points of the Venture you are not engaged at the moment, and the Masked Man/the Wax Wind comes so you stop getting them.
Begin you Polythremic Promenade: 1 Echo with 2 Memories of Distant Shores.
You have 10 actions to get your Venture to 12 (13 for much better rewards):
-Play the Good Odds one, if you are not very unlucky you should get 12/13 easily.
-If you see you can’t get to the required amount you can salvage some of you time by spending the points of your Venture:
the Good Odds Cards exchange 4 Levels of Venture for 20 Surface Silk/2 Echoes
the "it could go either way" exchange 8 Levels of Venture for 60 Romantic Notions/6 Echoes
Get 12/13 and Play the Storylet that unlocks the skill based cards for the Venture of your liking, then replay the cycle until you are satisfied.
Remember: complete the Spy Work/Guided Tour then change Venture or sail away.
Cash you Venture in the 2 storylet requiring 13 levels of Venture for optimal gain:
-Speak to a matched pair: 13 Investigating- 10 Stolen Kisses.
-There’s someone in there: 13 Fascinating - 2 Bazaar permits.
Or you can try to get both Ventures to 7/8 to play:
-A walk in the villa gardens: 8 both: 10 Touching Love Stories.
What to do with the excess actions? You can play them in "One might profit even on such a place":
the Soft to the Touch option give 12 Surface Silk, gives Scandal on Failures.
the Lurk in the Eaves option give 12 Romantic Notions, and does not give any Menaces on a Failure.
I think this is the bare boned version, you can do your own math to calculate if paying Silk and/or Romantic Notions to advance your Venture can be valuable or not, still take a look at Urthdigger and Seberin posts, for better insights.
Hope it helps.
[quote=tyrrelduckard]
Polythreme can be pretty valuable, offering up to 2.17 Echo per actions… just a minimum amount of luck[/quote]
Your math is off because of this. You need to take into account luck failures to correctly account for Echoes per actions.
I could say, for example, The Fidgeting Writer gives 4 Echoes per action, if you don’t fail a luck check. That’s a pretty big if.
Remember, when calculating Echoes per Action, you have to view it as a long haul exercise and take into account the times in which you will fail every luck check(because it will happen) as well as how often you will fail as a percentage of actions and take that into account when tabulating the long term profitability of certain storylets.
The main problem with Polythreme is that its card-dependent, so it works best if you can play frequently, wait for your deck to reload, and keep flipping cards to get the skill-based cards. The 120 ppa “excess actions” for surface silk and romantic notions also isn’t the most efficient source of Fidgeting Writer materials, Thefts of Particular Character with a Gang of Hoodlums is.