A Presumptuous Opportunity: Force-draw vs Natural?

I’m temptingly close to getting my first vial of M_____'s B____ the hard way, but there’s a catch.
I currently have the Presumptuous Opportunity card in my hand, but I also have 7 Notability, which means I can also force-draw the same card using Favorable Circumstances. On the other hand, M_____'s B____ requires 5 (actually 7) Notability on top of that. I’ve got 7 bottles of Airag and 4 Tears of the Bazaar, so I need to convert the former into the latter first.

If I use the natural card, I can get 5 Tears, but I’d need a whopping 12 Notability to get M_____'s B____ from force-drawing (or wait for a second natural card, which could take forever).

If I force-draw instead, I can rebuild my Notability back up to 5 and use the natural card to avoid spending more. I assume that getting from 0-5(7) notability is easier than going from 7-12(14). However I’m not sure if force-drawing A Presumptuous Opportunity erases any natural cards in your hand. I know this is the case for Slowcake’s Amanuensis, but I don’t know if it’s the same here. Does anyone know whether this is the case? I’d very much like to avoid burning 7 Notability for nothing.
edited by MrUnderhill89 on 8/4/2015
edited by MrUnderhill89 on 8/7/2015

You need to use the card - otherwise you will waste it (you can’t have the same thing twice in your hand)

I believe what you want to do, if you’re trying to avoid waiting for the card to come up again, is the following:

  • Spend Notability to insist on Favorable Circumstances, hang on to it.
  • Spend the PLO to get your 5th Tears of the Bazaar.
  • Grind your Notability back up to 5.
  • If you’re lucky, you’ll have drawn PLO again during this time, and you can hang on to your Favorable Circumstances for the future. More likely, you’ll now cash it in to draw PLO and immediately use it to buy your M______'s B_______

You might wish to get up to 8 Notability before starting, and 6 before buying your M______'s B____ so you can insist on the Amanuensis without needing a player to donate you that first point of Notability or having to wait for him to show up the first time.

Edit: Thanks for the reminder that I was sitting on Notability 8; I now have some Favorable Circumstances in the bank in case I ever want them and a bunch of Nights on the Town.
edited by marcmagus on 8/4/2015

Were I in your situation, I’d grab the final Tear and wait for the card to come around again. Without spending Favourable Circumstances.
That’s an awful lot of Making Waves to grind (or re-grind) in order to get a card you could see again within the week or even the next few days. If the Bottle of M______ B____ didn’t require Notability, then I’d say go for it. But the expense is ridiculous unless you need it immediately.

I ended up going with what marcmagus said. The trick is that you don’t have to spend all 12 (actually 14) Notability at once. I bought Favorable Circumstances then got the fifth Tear using the normal card. Now I just need to get back up to 5 (7) Notability (and I just got the Amanuensis, so even that won’t be a problem).

@Kittenpox: I agree, that is a lot of MW for one card, but I seem to be particularly RNG-cursed at the moment. This was the first time I drew Presumptuous Opportunity naturally for a while.
edited by MrUnderhill89 on 8/7/2015

Well now I should clarify that it takes seven Notability to get M_____'s B____, not five. Good thing I had a few cellars of wine to spare, or else it would have been a complete waste of Favorable Circumstances. Off I go to the commiseration thread…