Mizadil
Posts: 57
6/26/2016
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Either I have been extremely unlucky of late, or the odds of finding a searing enigma at the offices of Basebourne & Fowlingpiece has been reduced since the new heist was added. Can anyone confirm that they are still experiencing 25% rare successes? My recent experience has been 8%.
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Mizadil :: http://www.fallenlondon.com/Profile/Mizadil
:: A Paramount Presence ::
Correspondent :: "Never too busy to help educate your orphans."
I always have time for a game of chess or sparring bout, and will reciprocate Neath's Mysteries.
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Parelle
Posts: 1084
6/26/2016
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I think it's closer to 10%. I've been keeping track for a few weeks and I've gotten 33 TLS to 4 Searing Enigmas.
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Parelle, Lady Joseph Marlen. The Singular Librarian. A Midnighter, a Player of the Marvelous.
pages from a dusty bookshop: a badly updated FL changelog | Useful Guidance and Explanations
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Saklad
Posts: 528
6/26/2016
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Honestly a 10% chance to get a Searing Engima is much more in keeping with the rest of the game. Besides, you can never have too many Touching Love Stories, both mechanically and narratively.
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Saklad5, a man of many talents
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AdequateFinch
Posts: 1
6/26/2016
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I've gotten a Searing Enigma on two of the last eighteen Heists.
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xKiv
Posts: 846
6/27/2016
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I was never getting 25% in the first place. My records indicate 20% last year, and 20% the year before that.
(a total of 18 enigmas out of 89 successful heists, not counting those when I picked the 7-progress option)
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https://www.fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/xKiv - a witchful, percussive, dangermous and shadowry scholar of coexplodence, hopsidirean, and walker of fallen kitties.
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Skinnyman
Posts: 2133
6/27/2016
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Haven't plotted this kind of a robbery in a long time, but I'm after 41 and got one SI after my 30th heist.
From the posts I saw there was a speculation that it's around (probably less) than 10%.
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Morkan Kassington
Posts: 261
6/27/2016
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25% sounds far too good in the first place.
10% is still very tempting for me to go Heisting once I start going Shadowy, anyway.
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Ladies of the Neath, here comes Morkan Kassington, the gem among gentlemen
(He is actually a self-centered and foolish braggart, but he means no harm. Hit him up for social actions or dangerous lessons! Or just flirt.)
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Wiwo
Posts: 365
6/28/2016
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Judging by the community spreadsheet on this, the odds are estimated at ~12.5% after 851 datapoints, which is enough trials that it ought to be more or less correct.
12.5% is low enough that you get frequent runs of bad luck that make it seem like the rare success is entirely gone.
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Wiwo. Almost certainly not a squid in a cunningly tailored suit. Surely.
 Care for some cider? Here's how to ask me for some. Strange pranks strongly preferred.
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I'm a Correspondent and would be delighted to lecture at your orphanage.
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