Mizadil
Posts: 57
3/8/2016
|
According to the Wiki, Exploit your Romantic Notions-->Pen some Neathy love poetry for a Surface audience has a rare success chance of delivering a comprehensive bribe.
Can anyone confirm that they have recently seen this result? I've had exactly ZERO rare successes in exactly 100 attempts.
Has anyone attempted to determine the rare success odds from item conversions in general?
--
Mizadil :: http://www.fallenlondon.com/Profile/Mizadil
:: A Paramount Presence ::
Correspondent :: "Never too busy to help educate your orphans."
I always have time for a game of chess or sparring bout, and will reciprocate Neath's Mysteries.
|
|
|
0
link
|
Remedan
Posts: 61
3/8/2016
|
According to the big spreadsheet the chance of a rare success on this is just above 1%. So it's not unthinkable that it wouldn't occur in 100 attempts.
--
 My Neathly Alter Ego -- Still trying to make some sense of it all.
|
|
|
0
link
|
Sara Hysaro
Moderator
Posts: 4514
3/8/2016
|
Rare things are devious and love to elude the ones who desire them the most; it's entirely possible to be 2 or even 3 times over odds and still not get what you're hunting for. Not terribly likely, but it's always a possibility.
--
http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/Sara%20Hysaro
Please do not send SMEN, cat boxes, or Affluent Reporter requests. All other social actions are welcome.
Are you a Scarlet Saint? Send a message my way to be added to the list.
|
|
|
0
link
|
Grenem
Posts: 2067
3/8/2016
|
Assuming odds don't stack, you not finding one in 100 tries is roughly as likely, assuming we make our prediction on try 0, as rolling a 6-sided die and not landing a prime number.
Not getting a success in 300 tries is ~4.5%, or a little lower than the odds of rolling a 1 on a D20.
A shortcut to use it on your calculator is (odds that any individual try is a failure [as a fraction of 1])^(number of tries). when plugged into this, it says a roughly .0066 chance of no success on try 500, or, rather, that 1 person in 152 will still be failing on try #500
edited by Grenem on 3/8/2016
--
Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
|
|
|
+1
link
|
Remedan
Posts: 61
3/9/2016
|
Grenem wrote:
Assuming odds don't stack, you not finding one in 100 tries is roughly as likely, assuming we make our prediction on try 0, as rolling a 6-sided die and not landing a prime number.
Wait, primes on d6 are 2, 3, and 5. So there's an 50% chance. 0.99^100 is ~37%. Why choose such an odd example when it's not even a good approximation?
--
My Neathly Alter Ego -- Still trying to make some sense of it all.
|
|
|
+2
link
|
Mizadil
Posts: 57
3/9/2016
|
Remedan wrote:
Grenem wrote:
Assuming odds don't stack, you not finding one in 100 tries is roughly as likely, assuming we make our prediction on try 0, as rolling a 6-sided die and not landing a prime number.
Wait, primes on d6 are 2, 3, and 5. So there's an 50% chance. 0.99^100 is ~37%. Why choose such an odd example when it's not even a good approximation?
Actually, depending on what decade one went to school in, 1 is a prime number too...which would make the odds of not landing a prime 1/3, which is in fact fairly close.
I do understand statistics, I just had no idea the odds of a rare success were as low as they are. As it stands, it looks like the fidgeting writer is a far more economical source of comprehensive bribes.
--
Mizadil :: http://www.fallenlondon.com/Profile/Mizadil
:: A Paramount Presence ::
Correspondent :: "Never too busy to help educate your orphans."
I always have time for a game of chess or sparring bout, and will reciprocate Neath's Mysteries.
|
|
|
+2
link
|
Grenem
Posts: 2067
3/9/2016
|
Mizadil wrote:
Remedan wrote:
Grenem wrote:
Assuming odds don't stack, you not finding one in 100 tries is roughly as likely, assuming we make our prediction on try 0, as rolling a 6-sided die and not landing a prime number.
Wait, primes on d6 are 2, 3, and 5. So there's an 50% chance. 0.99^100 is ~37%. Why choose such an odd example when it's not even a good approximation?
Actually, depending on what decade one went to school in, 1 is a prime number too...which would make the odds of not landing a prime 1/3, which is in fact fairly close.
I do understand statistics, I just had no idea the odds of a rare success were as low as they are. As it stands, it looks like the fidgeting writer is a far more economical source of comprehensive bribes.
That's why consulting the giga-spreadsheet is a good idea. That said, my appologies, I have met people who genuinely do not get this, or think the odds of this happening are far lower, but i still moved too quickly to correct you, rather than assuming you just didn't know how unlikely that outcome was.
--
Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
|
|
|
0
link
|
MrBurnside
Posts: 188
3/9/2016
|
Mizadil wrote:
As it stands, it looks like the fidgeting writer is a far more economical source of comprehensive bribes.
Fidgeting Writer is so much more efficient, in the end, that it makes going for Event of the Year almost reasonable. As in 157 Comprehensive Bribes should only take about 15,000 actions.
I'm still considering it.
|
|
|
0
link
|
Grenem
Posts: 2067
3/9/2016
|
MrBurnside wrote:
Mizadil wrote:
As it stands, it looks like the fidgeting writer is a far more economical source of comprehensive bribes.
Fidgeting Writer is so much more efficient, in the end, that it makes going for Event of the Year almost reasonable. As in 157 Comprehensive Bribes should only take about 15,000 actions.
I'm still considering it.
It's really not that expensive to get Event of the Year. I mean... It's 85% of an overgoat, roughly, if you don't use the rat gimmick. I've only been playing a year and already have enough money to buy two through total liquidation, too.
--
Married!:http://fallenlondon.storynexus.com/Profile/takuza
I will accept all social actions that do not consume free evenings- and i will provide patronage to anyone who requests it, though it will be split between all requesters.
On psudeo-hiatus. Will be inactive and active and fluctuate without warning.
Grinding Favors without cards: http://community.failbettergames.com/topic22266-storylet-favors-grinding.aspx
|
|
|
0
link
|
MrBurnside
Posts: 188
3/9/2016
|
Grenem wrote:
It's really not that expensive to get Event of the Year. I mean... It's 85% of an overgoat, roughly, if you don't use the rat gimmick. I've only been playing a year and already have enough money to buy two through total liquidation, too.
Oh, I know it's not actually an enormous grind. Big, certainly, but not enormous. I'm just tickled by the idea of it being such an efficient way to increase Planning, compared to what you miss out on by not selling them.
|
|
|
0
link
|