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Optimizing Silken Thread Expeditions Messages in this topic - RSS

Optimatum
Optimatum
Posts: 3434

19 days ago
By now, it's widely known that expeditions to the Tomb of the Silken Thread are one of the most profitable grinds available in the game. There's some debate around the precise profit, or how it compares to other grinds, but in general everyone accepts that Docks Favours are ideal and Strong-Backed Labour is the next best thing. However, there's very little analysis looking beyond which resource is used to buy supplies.

I want to compare not only the different sources of Expedition Supplies, but also the effects of different sources of those items. Expeditions are difficult to model statistically, so I've written a script to simulate expeditions, which can be found here. The script includes comparisons of all the reasonable ways of grinding Supplies I could think of. (If you have suggestions to improve the code or logic, please share.) Assumptions are as follows:
  • The player has enough Watchful to guarantee success on all Watchful checks.
  • The player has at least 39 supplies at the start of each expedition, so can always confront the rival if needed.
  • Confronting a rival is rare enough that the Absinthe cost does not require grinding and can be treated as a flat echo cost.
  • Confronting a rival is rare enough that the Nightmares gain is irrelevant and is dealt with by Time, the Healer.
  • The player optimizes their choice of expedition action to both not overshoot the goal and maximize possible value from "A sign?".
  • Rostygold costs do not require grinding and can be treated as flat echo costs. (Using the Regretful Soldier option on A Visit gives large quantities of rats, which can be efficiently exchanged for Rostygold at the Department of Menace Eradication.)
Notable results:
  • Strong-Backed Labour is about 2.269 EPA.
  • Docks Favours are 4.768 EPA if obtained for free, and other card sources are well above 4 EPA at worst.
  • Whispered Hints that the player has on hand are 2.790 EPA.
  • Trading owned Jade, Amber, or Rostygold* for Hints via the Tiger-Keeper is 2.609 EPA.
  • Grinding Jade or Rostygold at court and trading it for Hints is 2.132 EPA.
  • Sources that give 150 Hints per action, including various cards, are 2.207 EPA. Hints become better than SBL at 160 Hints per action.
  • The Respectable Landeau card gives bonus Appalling Secrets and comes to 2.478 EPA.
* I haven't decided whether using Rostygold for Hints is worthwhile. Because trading rats for Rostygold scales in profit with the number of rats owned, and A Visit provides rats faster than expeditions and Docks Favours consume Rostygold, it might be better to just ignore the Tiger-Keeper for higher rat-to-Rostygold trade efficiency. Thoughts?
edited by Optimatum on 6/7/2019

--
Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.

Will trade Feast gifts for Cider! Or, you know, for Feast gifts. Just specify which you want.

PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
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Kittenpox
Kittenpox
Posts: 858

19 days ago
Quick question - Does the on-hand Whispered Hints calculation include the chance of getting 1x Crate of Expedition Supplies + 1x Map Scrap ?
I read your post (ty for putting in the leg-work btw) and was like "I've got like twelve thousand of the things - maybe I can do more expeditions rather than waiting for Docks", only to have that result show up 4 times out of the first 7 attempts at the "Rumours of Treasure" action. :-)

--
Kittenpox
Current [Fabulous Diamond] count: Twenty-Five (of 50). Halfway there! ^_^
Metaphysical Caprice: 11.
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Currently: Returned to the Neath, and regaining my footing in this place. :-)
NO PLANT BATTLES PLEASE.
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Meradine Heidenreich
Meradine Heidenreich
Posts: 387

18 days ago
I very occasionally take the Whispered Hints option if I just need to top up a few supplies. The map scraps are depressingly frequent -- 40/60, maybe?

--
https://www.fallenlondon.com/profile/Meradine%20Heidenreich

The Starveling kit
Gobbled up the bit
of cheese on my tray ..
"O Weh!"

No plant battles, please.
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Optimatum
Optimatum
Posts: 3434

18 days ago
Kittenpox wrote:
Quick question - Does the on-hand Whispered Hints calculation include the chance of getting 1x Crate of Expedition Supplies + 1x Map Scrap ?

It does indeed. I have it as a 60% chance.

--
Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.

Will trade Feast gifts for Cider! Or, you know, for Feast gifts. Just specify which you want.

PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
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Tystefy
Tystefy
Posts: 429

15 days ago
I always wanted to know this information but never had the mathematical bravery to find out for myself.

Thank you.

A not-so-quick question: any suggestions on the best way to go about acquiring the items needed to buy expedition supplies (most action-efficient method)?

--
Will sometimes return to post absurdity.
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NNNnobody
NNNnobody
Posts: 46

15 days ago
Tystefy wrote:
A not-so-quick question: any suggestions on the best way to go about acquiring the items needed to buy expedition supplies (most action-efficient method)?

I'm specifically interested in whether it would be profitable to expend three actions to get one Favour: Docks via Confiding in the Chandleress.

--
......I'm shy.....
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Tyrconnell
Tyrconnell
Posts: 251

14 days ago
If you can spend one action on a Favour, it takes 7.25 actions to accumulate the Favours, 26.5 actions total for the full expedition cycle, which is where 4.768 EPA comes from. If instead it's 3 actions per Favour, that's an extra 14.5 actions for the cycle and it ends up coming out to 3.08 EPA.

That's not enough room that you can afford to cycle Airs to get Favours: Docks at a profit, but enough that a lucky high Airs can be usedto turn a profit. Just over 9 echoes for 3 actions ain't bad!

The only downsides, really, are the loss of stats for people who are overcapped and the loss of one of the least used stats in the endgame overall. I think if I reliably visited the Chandleress my Dangerous would slowly drop over time, but I'm also a regular Nadir visitor.

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Tyrconnell, a gentleman and doctor of diverse interests and multifarious proclivities
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NNNnobody
NNNnobody
Posts: 46

14 days ago
Ah yes, thanks for the answer. Since I'm not overcapped yet, it is without downsides for me.

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......I'm shy.....
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Tsar Koschei
Tsar Koschei
Posts: 90

14 days ago
I'm thinking of hiring on clay man labor in bulk. I have most of the necessaries stocked, but I'm missing some ten thousand pearls. What do you all suppose is the most EPA-efficient way to gather them? The unfinished business option has the benefit of yielding the occasional scream, but as far as the pearls themselves go it's rather slow. Is there a better method?

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Optimatum
Optimatum
Posts: 3434

14 days ago
Tystefy wrote:
A not-so-quick question: any suggestions on the best way to go about acquiring the items needed to buy expedition supplies (most action-efficient method)?



Strong-Back Labour is best bought in the Bazaar Sidestreets. Hints and Docks Favours are best gotten through certain cards or accumulated during regular play.
NNNnobody wrote:
Tystefy wrote:
A not-so-quick question: any suggestions on the best way to go about acquiring the items needed to buy expedition supplies (most action-efficient method)?

I'm specifically interested in whether it would be profitable to expend three actions to get one Favour: Docks via Confiding in the Chandleress.



Tweaking the simulation, you'd get something around 3.11 EPA, but I'm not sure how you'd refresh Airs without cutting into it.

Tsar Koschei wrote:
I'm thinking of hiring on clay man labor in bulk. I have most of the necessaries stocked, but I'm missing some ten thousand pearls. What do you all suppose is the most EPA-efficient way to gather them? The unfinished business option has the benefit of yielding the occasional scream, but as far as the pearls themselves go it's rather slow. Is there a better method?



Off the top of my head, works at Court! Assuming you've been to Port Carnelian and earned your reentry, you could do a Carnelian Ballet (using The lead for progress) and earn pearls with some Tribute on the side. It's definitely better than Unfinished Business, though you'll have to do the math as to whether it's better than just buying SBL from the sidestreets.

--
Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.

Will trade Feast gifts for Cider! Or, you know, for Feast gifts. Just specify which you want.

PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
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bertrandwins
bertrandwins
Posts: 58

11 days ago
Interesting calculations, thanks for sharing!

Apart from the respectable landau card that nets you 2.1EPA, are there any other ways to grind Jade, Amber, or Rostygold before conversion to Whispered Hints?



Still seems like buying SBL from the bazaar side streets is the best option if you are going to grind Tomb of the Silken Thread non-stop for days on end, especially after you factor in the costs and EPA of acquiring items that are exchanged for getting expedition supplies?

--
https://www.fallenlondon.com/profile/bertrandwins
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Optimatum
Optimatum
Posts: 3434

10 days ago
There's no worthwhile grinds for Jade/Amber/Rostygold that I've found. The best I know of is composing works in court, but it's still significantly worse than SBL.

--
Optimatum, a ruthless and merciful gentleman. No plant battles, Affluent Photographer requests, or healing offers; all other social actions welcome.

Will trade Feast gifts for Cider! Or, you know, for Feast gifts. Just specify which you want.

PM me for information enigmatic or Fated. Though the forum please, not FL itself.
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Jolanda Swan
Jolanda Swan
Posts: 1186

7 days ago
In Spite, the 2000 foxfire candles wanted! Allows you to change the candles to Rostygold and gain a Chruch favor. RNG dependent, but still useful.

--
Lover of all things beautiful, secret admirer of ugly truths, fond of the Parabola Sun... and always delighted to role play.
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Skinnyman
Skinnyman
Posts: 1779

7 days ago
Well, it's good enough for at most 40 Dock favours so it is something really reliable!

--
I am accepting Plant battles, Neath's Mysteries card, Starveling Cats and boxed cats.
No suppers, no second chances gain and no need to cure my menaces!
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Waterpls
Waterpls
Posts: 229

15 hours ago
What about "Your own expertise" option? Is it better to exchange Pages of Prelapsarian Archaeological Notes for supplies or trade them in bulk in "Organise your Research" ?
edited by Waterpls on 6/25/2019

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Long grinds: Heptagoat 1/7; Cider Done; Correspondence 21/21; Paramount 4/4.
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