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CHRISTMAS IN THE NEATH: A GUIDE Messages in this topic - RSS

Sara Hysaro
Sara Hysaro
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Posts: 4514

11/10/2015
That option was nice back when it was first introduced since Magnificent Diamonds were brand new then. A way to acquire them was discovered shortly, but I was feeling impatient/lazy.

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metasynthie
metasynthie
Posts: 645

11/10/2015
Take the air caps at 10! The other things mentioned (Daughter in the Shadows at Nadir, spending ToL on searching the shore of the Sundered Sea, and sniffing Tears) are the only repeatable ways to get Melancholy above 10 as far as I know. I don't even think there is a Connection item for raising Melancholy higher once it gets to 12. And it's worth noting that in order to use Tears the rest of the year, you have to keep at least one ToL unspent after Xmas!
edited by metasynthie on 11/10/2015

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Erika
Erika
Posts: 528

11/10/2015
Rupho Schartenhauer wrote:
  • If you have only the Monocle, you can reach ToL 8 before Mr Sacks comes round. Again, the pails are always consumed, so you need at least four pails for this in total: use the Monocle on one to reach ToL 3, then dip a soul in lacre twice (ToL 4&5), then use the Monocle for the jump from 5 to 8 - you can't use it at ToL 6! Note that this is A Scholar of the Correspondence challenge! You need SotC 6 to unlock it, it's straightforward at SotC 10. If you're below SotC 10 you might fail at the Monocle challenge, melting your Pail and giving you Wounds but no ToL... anyway, once you're at 8, you can still put four or five levels on top of that from Sacks cards

It's more efficient bucket-wise to examine the pails with the Semiotic Monocle twice, ToL from 0 to 6, then 'Take the air' or 'Search the shore', to drop your ToL from 6 to 5, then examine another pail through the Monocle again, bringing ToL to 8. This requires 3 pails as opposed to 4 listed above. The benefit of doing the method you listed, is being able to get ToL as high as possible before Mr Sacks comes.

Rupho Schartenhauer wrote:
  • How do I get a Dreadful Surmise? With 500 Spirit of Hallowmas! Without spending Fate, the DS can only be obtained at Hallowmas and the Feast of the Exceptional Rose (which is quaintly called Valentine's by surfacers). There's also a Fate-locked option that's available all through the year.

What's the fate thing? For the life of me, I can't recall.

metasynthie wrote:
Temple of Uttermost Wind: ~10% chance of each of the following... 2 Magnificent Diamonds, 2 Night Whispers, 1 Tears of the Bazaar. 20% chance of 1 Airag.

Gallery of Serpents: 24% chance of 1 Airag, 26% chance of 1 Tears of the Bazaar

Interestingly, any of these have a 50% chance of netting you SOMETHING useful for Xmas, but the more fate you pay the more powerful that something will be.

Okay. First, sorry for nitpicking.
Second. YES. The data I've collected on Fate expeditions comes in handy!

The Temple of Uttermost Wind's Unpredictable Treasure goes down to a value of at least 54, which means there's either a 7% or 9% chance of 'A wooden mask?' + others, and twice that for Airag (depending on whether the UT value goes all the way down to 1 or not)

The Gallery of Serpents has equal chances of Airag and Tears, both 25% each.

Where are you getting your information from? Did you collect your own? I've got mine in my signature, oh, well, you have to do the survey first, so here.

Post-Script:
What more of these are there?

Rupho Schartenhauer wrote:

Feedback Requested Edit

edited by Cecil on 11/10/2015

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metasynthie
metasynthie
Posts: 645

11/10/2015
Cecil wrote:
What's the fate thing? For the life of me, I can't recall.


I have no idea either -- it's available for Fate if you sell your soul, but only at Hallowmas, not all year round.

So, about expedition data -- I only have scraps of notes from myself and friends about highest and lowest values, so I could do the survey and provide a couple data-points if it's helpful, but it might throw off the overall statistical curve. Still, it seems like bundles and treasures follow a straight-line random formula so maybe just knowing the ranges is all you really need. That's what I based my numbers on: assumptions about low/high values and how the Storynexus Rich Effect was set up. If it's not actually a straight line, it's doing a very good impression of one!
Cecil wrote:
The Temple of Uttermost Wind's Unpredictable Treasure goes down to a value of at least 54, which means there's either a 7% or 9% chance of 'A wooden mask?' + others, and twice that for Airag (depending on whether the UT value goes all the way down to 1 or not)

The Gallery of Serpents has equal chances of Airag and Tears, both 25% each.


I have lowest observed Uttermost Wind value as 41, which means a 9.5% chance of wooden mask. (Was rounding up instead of being precise, sorry.)

Airag values seem to go from 120-139 (avaiable even in non-fate expeditions, right) and 160-179. Gallery lowest value I've got as 161, which fits a hypothesis that someone set these to be [die roll]+[fixed value] and fixed value was a round number (in this case [d:80]+160, to use storynexus syntax). But 160 is available for non-fate-locked too, and from data on non-fate expeditions seems to be the very tip of "a carefully wrapped container." The ranges for rewards seem to start at round numbers, but the die rolls + round numbers make the setting of "Uncovering an Unpredictable Treasure" (and bundles too) start at 41, 161, etc. It throws data off in funny ways!

Airag (161-179) is thus slightly less likely in Serpent than the other rewards, and Tears, which I got at 220, runs from 220-240 so it's slightly more common. The latter, at least, fits the arc of your data!

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Rupho Schartenhauer
Rupho Schartenhauer
Posts: 775

11/10/2015
Cecil wrote:

It's more efficient bucket-wise to examine the pails with the Semiotic Monocle twice, ToL from 0 to 6, then 'Take the air' or 'Search the shore', to drop your ToL from 6 to 5, then examine another pail through the Monocle again, bringing ToL to 8. This requires 3 pails as opposed to 4 listed above. The benefit of doing the method you listed, is being able to get ToL as high as possible before Mr Sacks comes.

Hi Cecil, I'm aware there're a few "tactical issues" I haven't covered yet. The thing is, I don't want to clutter everything into the OP - at some point people's eyes are just going to glaze over and they won't remember anything they read! What I might do is: write another post for this, then link to it from the OP (just like I did for the 12 Days of Sacks, basically).

Cecil wrote:

What's the fate thing? For the life of me, I can't recall.

[spoiler]Someone told me you get a DS if you invite the Princess to your Salon - is that wrong?[/spoiler]

Cecil wrote:

What more of these are there?
Feedback Requested Edit

Millions! If you click on the smiley symbol when writing a post, you'll see just five - but when you click into the space below them..... Shock

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xKiv
xKiv
Posts: 809

11/10/2015
Grenem wrote:
I'm not aware of the missing woman option in the nadir- educate me, please, since google cannot find it either. If you mean woods in winter, that doesn't give melancholy for me.


My fault - I use them both for the +1 cp drama, so I mixed them up for everything else too.

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Erika
Erika
Posts: 528

11/10/2015
metasynthie wrote:
I have lowest observed Uttermost Wind value as 41, which means a 9.5% chance of wooden mask. (Was rounding up instead of being precise, sorry.)

What's the highest you've gotten? That would be swaying things to get a higher chance. Also. Question, do you think I should rearrange the spreadsheet to display chance based upon range as opposed to chance based upon results?

Interesting that your lowest value is also for 'A wooden mask?', I wonder if that's the lowest option? I need to do Uttermost Wind like, 4 times more or something, for all the text. Maybe I'll get lucky and get something lower (heh, getting a material reward with less value and I'd consider myself lucky).

metasynthie wrote:
Airag (161-179) is thus slightly less likely in Serpent than the other rewards, and Tears, which I got at 220, runs from 220-240 so it's slightly more common. The latter, at least, fits the arc of your data!

Huh! The lowest I've gotten from Serpents is also 161, I'd however come to the conclusion that Serpents would fit the pattern of the Thieves' Cache and Deep Blue Heaven, where the range goes from 1-(x*10) and that x*10 would apply to the lower curve as well. I hadn't even considered the possibility that Fate and non-Fate Unpredictable Treasure ranges would be mutually exclusive. I guess we'll have to do A Gallery of Serpents about 200 times or so to try and guarantee getting all the Unpredictable Treasure values!

Rupho Schartenhauer wrote:
Hi Cecil, I'm aware there're a few "tactical issues" I haven't covered yet. The thing is, I don't want to clutter everything into the OP - at some point people's eyes are just going to glaze over and they won't remember anything they read! What I might do is: write another post for this, then link to it from the OP (just like I did for the 12 Days of Sacks, basically).

Ah, okay. I wasn't sure you were aware.

Rupho Schartenhauer wrote:
Someone told me you get a DS if you invite the Princess to your Salon - is that wrong?

Ah, yeah, that's wrong.

Rupho Schartenhauer wrote:
Millions! If you click on the smiley symbol when writing a post, you'll see just five - but when you click into the space below them..... Shock

BRILLIANT. (Thank you)
Kneel!

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Rupho Schartenhauer
Rupho Schartenhauer
Posts: 775

11/11/2015
Do I remember correctly that changes to "Putting the Pieces Together: The Taste of Lacre" were never displayed like other qualities ("your ToL has increased to 3")? Instead, you only ever saw the flavour text of your current status ("Why does the lacre accumulate at Christmas?" in this case), making it useful to keep ToL as the displayed Scrapbook quality on your Profile during Sackmas...

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Optimatum
Optimatum
Posts: 3430

11/11/2015
Rupho Schartenhauer wrote:
Do I remember correctly that changes to "Putting the Pieces Together: The Taste of Lacre" were never displayed like other qualities ("your ToL has increased to 3")? Instead, you only ever saw the flavour text of your current status ("Why does the lacre accumulate at Christmas?" in this case), making it useful to keep ToL as the displayed Scrapbook quality on your Profile during Sackmas...

I think so, yes.

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Erika
Erika
Posts: 528

11/11/2015
Optimatum wrote:
Rupho Schartenhauer wrote:
Do I remember correctly that changes to "Putting the Pieces Together: The Taste of Lacre" were never displayed like other qualities ("your ToL has increased to 3")? Instead, you only ever saw the flavour text of your current status ("Why does the lacre accumulate at Christmas?" in this case), making it useful to keep ToL as the displayed Scrapbook quality on your Profile during Sackmas...

I think so, yes.

I can confirm this.
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MrBurnside
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Posts: 188

11/11/2015
I really appreciate your hard work! As a newish citizen to Fallen London some of the guides have been VERY helpful. I do have a question however: On the wiki it looks as though a player can loop back to Day 2 semi-perpetually (by using the "Best Regards" option). Is this a linking error? If not it would allow anyone with a Consonant Violin to boost Connection: Masters and ToL stratospherically.

Edit: If no one knows, then I'll be happy to try it with an alt and post the results.
edited by MrBurnside on 11/11/2015
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metasynthie
metasynthie
Posts: 645

11/11/2015
Cecil wrote:
The benefit of doing the method you listed, is being able to get ToL as high as possible before Mr Sacks comes.


Just realized something... what is the benefit of having a high ToL before Mr Sacks comes? When the wicket opens, Noman is pretty cheap, right? Is there some nuanced facet of a NiteBrite strategy I'm not grasping?

Cecil wrote:
What's the highest you've gotten? That would be swaying things to get a higher chance.


For Uttermost Wind? 240. That one seems to have a huge range.


Cecil wrote:
Also. Question, do you think I should rearrange the spreadsheet to display chance based upon range as opposed to chance based upon results?


Yeah that would have been helpful to understand what I was looking at, although I figured it out smile

Cecil wrote:
Huh! The lowest I've gotten from Serpents is also 161, I'd however come to the conclusion that Serpents would fit the pattern of the Thieves' Cache and Deep Blue Heaven, where the range goes from 1-(x*10) and that x*10 would apply to the lower curve as well.


But it doesn't start at 1 as in "An instrument" right -- you only ever get four different rewards from Serpents, so the starting value has to be higher. In this case, x = 24, the highest value anyone's seen, but instead of 1 it's 161. The whole line's just shifted up by 160.

Cecil wrote:
I hadn't even considered the possibility that Fate and non-Fate Unpredictable Treasure ranges would be mutually exclusive. I guess we'll have to do A Gallery of Serpents about 200 times or so to try and guarantee getting all the Unpredictable Treasure values!


Well, Uttermost Wind isn't mutually exclusive since it goes down to 41, but Serpents... all of your data is for the four rewards above the non-Fate range! And you were saying there was a 25% chance of each reward (there are only four rewards) so I assume you figured there were only four rewards?



TL;DR data is great, a falsifiable hypothesis based on data & some guessing is even better! My educated guess is that the ranges are Thieves Cache: [d80], Shrine of Deep Blue Heaven: [d160], Temple of Uttermost Wind: [d200]+40, Serpents' Gallery: [d80]+160

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Grenem
Grenem
Posts: 2067

11/11/2015
MrBurnside wrote:
I really appreciate your hard work! As a newish citizen to Fallen London some of the guides have been VERY helpful. I do have a question however: On the wiki it looks as though a player can loop back to Day 2 semi-perpetually (by using the "Best Regards" option). Is this a linking error? If not it would allow anyone with a Consonant Violin to boost Connection: Masters and ToL stratospherically.

Edit: If no one knows, then I'll be happy to try it with an alt and post the results.
edited by MrBurnside on 11/11/2015

I'd bet all 7 of my tears of the bazaar that it's a linking error.

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Rupho Schartenhauer
Rupho Schartenhauer
Posts: 775

11/11/2015
Grenem wrote:
MrBurnside wrote:
On the wiki it looks as though a player can loop back to Day 2 semi-perpetually (by using the "Best Regards" option). Is this a linking error? If not it would allow anyone with a Consonant Violin to boost Connection: Masters and ToL stratospherically.

I'd bet all 7 of my tears of the bazaar that it's a linking error.

Yes, that should be a linking error... but it would be a neat little feature!

metasynthie wrote:
Just realized something... what is the benefit of having a high ToL before Mr Sacks comes? When the wicket opens, Noman is pretty cheap, right? Is there some nuanced facet of a NiteBrite strategy I'm not grasping?

The cheapest Noman to buy is not exactly the cheapest Noman to keep alive... wink
Also, the guide is mostly about Lodgings, not Nomen. But there are other ways to play it, all depending on what items you have/which lodgings you want. If you look at the OP, I've put in a note about tactics, and...

Rupho Schartenhauer wrote:
What I might do is: write another post for this, then link to it from the OP

That's still coming, just not during the week, probably.

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Grenem
Grenem
Posts: 2067

11/11/2015
metasynthie wrote:
Just realized something... what is the benefit of having a high ToL before Mr Sacks comes? When the wicket opens, Noman is pretty cheap, right? Is there some nuanced facet of a NiteBrite strategy I'm not grasping?

If you just want the text and on-death rewards, buying the cheapest one is best. it'll probably still cost you more that a little, but that shouldn't be a problem. if you want it to last until feburary... well, lets just say those few days do make a difference, and a big one.

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The Master
The Master
Posts: 804

11/11/2015
Well, this thread is getting confusing...

I still don't know how hard or easy will it be to get to 9 ToL for the lodging or what im really supposed to do upset.

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Màiread
Màiread
Posts: 385

11/11/2015
If you have scholar of the correspondence 10, you will have no problem reaching nine taste. This is the least complicated way to get what you want:

1. Before using Mr sacks cards, gather 4 pails of snow either from the weekly snowfall or by buying from the urchins (you will probably get a free one from the advent calendar).

2. Stare at a bucket with a monocle (reach taste 3). Twice, put a soul in the bucket (taste 5). Stare at your last bucket (taste 8).

3. Using the wiki as a guide, take one of the options which raises taste on the Mr sacks cards (play a consonant violin, give a magnificent diamond - I can't recall the others off the top of my head, but the wiki has them). This will take you to taste 9.
edited by Màiread on 11/11/2015
edited by Màiread on 11/11/2015

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NiteBrite
NiteBrite
Posts: 1014

11/11/2015
Grenem wrote:
metasynthie wrote:
Just realized something... what is the benefit of having a high ToL before Mr Sacks comes? When the wicket opens, Noman is pretty cheap, right? Is there some nuanced facet of a NiteBrite strategy I'm not grasping?

If you just want the text and on-death rewards, buying the cheapest one is best. it'll probably still cost you more that a little, but that shouldn't be a problem. if you want it to last until feburary... well, lets just say those few days do make a difference, and a big one.


Time the healer hits like a truck taking around 23 ptpt equivalent per week to begin with (and it slowly gets worse), and that's bad if you are trying to keep a noman alive until February. Any initial cost savings are just totally and crushingly lost every one additional time the healer you have to survive so it's best to wait as long as possible before creating the noman in this scenario.
edited by NiteBrite on 11/11/2015

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metasynthie
metasynthie
Posts: 645

11/11/2015
OK, I think I get it now...

Getting ToL up to 8 will cost 4 pails if you do it before the Wicket opens, but only 3 pails after the Wicket opens, using Cecil's method where you drop a level via "search the shore" or "take the air." However, if you're only saving up enough for an expensive Noman at the end, you don't really need to repeat that process more than once, and the most you'd save is one bucket. Or is there another reason why you'd want a high ToL before the Wicket opens, as opposed to waiting to raise ToL to 8 until after the Wicket opens when it's a pail cheaper?

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Rupho Schartenhauer
Rupho Schartenhauer
Posts: 775

11/11/2015
metasynthie wrote:
Or is there another reason why you'd want a high ToL before the Wicket opens, as opposed to waiting to raise ToL to 8 until after the Wicket opens when it's a pail cheaper?

Yes, if you have no monocle and/or low SotC, but still want an expensive lodging.
edited by Rupho Schartenhauer on 11/11/2015

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